ODD
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Oddity Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Made on
Sep 11, 2026
Price at call
$18.79
6-month call
Neutral +0.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$18.90
Great value below
$9.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.6% to $18.90
Predicted High
$20.10
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$18.45
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 11, 2026 1:00 pm
Neutral
ODD trends range-bound to
$18.90
(+0.6% from $18.79)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFresh Q2 beat and raised guide give ODD near-term momentum despite risk-off regime, but high beta (2.08) and negative quality/value scores drag it back toward DCF fair value ($19) over the medium term with no earnings catalyst in the window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $15.50 on volume or above $23 sustained would falsify the mean-reversion path
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $18.79 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 11, 2026 | — | $18.79 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 25, 2026 | $15.15–$22.43 typical range · internal point $18.45 | — | ±19.4% | 6/10 | Risk-off regime pressures high-beta names near term |
| What actually happened: closed $18.07 on Sep 24, 2026 = -3.8% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±19.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 11, 2026 | $13.51–$24.07 typical range · internal point $19.20 | — | ±28.1% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind reasserts as regime stabilizes |
| 2 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $20.10 | — | +7.0% | 5/10 | Visionary-founder narrative and raised guide lift shares |
| 3 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $19.75 | — | +5.1% | 4/10 | Momentum fades without new catalyst into year-end |
| 4 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $19.30 | — | +2.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward DCF anchor near $19 |
| 5 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $18.60 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Quality and forensic concerns weigh as narrative cools |
| 6 months | Mar 11, 2027 | $18.90 | — | +0.6% | 3/10 | Settles near deterministic baseline awaiting next print |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $19.90 (+5.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $18.79 |
| Composite fair value | $32.45 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $28.76 |
| DCF fair value | $19.08 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $83.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $9.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -14 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 99.1% 3m 97.4% 6m 95.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.25 3m 2.08 5m 1.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 29.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 39d behind | ODD-20260802-132328-45ee |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260910-135950-c5a6 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260910-135950-c5a6 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260910-135950-c5a6 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260910-135950-c5a6 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 11, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260825-000001-ac75 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 11, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260825-000001-ac75 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.