Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$12.37
6-month call
Bear -17.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$10.20
Great value below
$8.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.5% to $10.20
Predicted High
$12.30
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$10.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-17.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:08 am
Bear
PATH trends lower to
$10.20
(-17.5% from $12.37)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisPATH trades well above composite fair value ($6.87) and even DCF ($11.88), with negative value and sentiment scores and no near-term catalyst. Expect gradual value-gravity drift lower over the six months, with mild early stability given the neutral tape and low beta, then softening as the fallen-angel narrative fails to attract fresh bids.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $13.50 on volume, or an unscheduled positive catalyst (large deal, guidance raise), would invalidate the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $12.37 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $12.37 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $10.94–$13.80 typical range · internal point $12.30 | — | ±11.6% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, neutral regime, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $16.68 on Aug 13, 2026 = +34.8% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 35.4 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±11.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $10.29–$14.45 typical range · internal point $12.10 | — | ±16.8% | 6/10 | Sentiment soft, no earnings, mild mean reversion lower |
| What actually happened: closed $18.15 on Aug 28, 2026 = +46.7% vs the call (predicted -2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 48.9 pp · accuracy 1/10 · typical range ±16.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $11.70 | — | -5.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward DCF anchor |
| What actually happened: closed $12.84 on Sep 30, 2026 = +3.8% vs the call (predicted -5.4%) · direction MISS (called down, was flat) · off by 9.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $11.30 | — | -8.6% | 5/10 | Earnings possible; mixed setup, valuation overhang persists |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $10.80 | — | -12.7% | 4/10 | Continued drift as fair-value gap remains unresolved |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $10.50 | — | -15.1% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling on laggard, thin catalysts |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $10.20 | — | -17.5% | 3/10 | Approaches DCF anchor; further downside needs catalyst |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $11.94 (-3.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $12.37 |
| Composite fair value | $6.87 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $7.73 |
| DCF fair value | $11.88 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $8.50 |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +26 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 63.8% 3m 58.1% 6m 59.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.12 3m 0.39 5m 0.34 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | PATH-20260730-193145-930d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PATH-20260730-210005-7f9a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PATH-20260730-210005-7f9a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PATH-20260730-210005-7f9a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PATH-20260730-210005-7f9a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | PATH-20260730-193145-930d |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | PATH-20260730-205438-8666 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $12.37 | $10.20 | -17.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.