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AGING Analysis Report
Jul 30, 2026
23 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Jul 30, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 19 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Uipath Inc. (PATH) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -27 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 26 · Value -71 · Sentiment -23 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $8.81 vs $12.37 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Uipath Inc.

PATH NYSE
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
New York, NY 10017, United States uipath.com Updated Jul 30, 7:31pm
Price
$12.37
Market Cap
$6.4B
Employees
3,981
Beta
0.97
Avg Volume
75,216,351
CEO
Mr. Daniel Solomon Dines

UiPath Inc. is an enterprise software company specializing in automation solutions that help organizations streamline and orchestrate complex business processes. Headquartered in New York and founded in 2005, UiPath focuses on robotic process automation, delivering software robots that emulate human actions to handle repetitive, rules-based tasks across a wide range of systems and applications. Its end-to-end platform integrates robotic process automation with artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing to support advanced decisioning, document understanding, and process optimization. UiPath offers both cloud-based and enterprise deployments with governance, security, and multi-tenant capabilities designed for large and highly regulated organizations. The platform features low-code, drag-and-drop tools that enable both technical and non-technical users to design, deploy, and manage automations, as well as process mining and analytics to track performance and return on automation. UiPath today serves sectors such as financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, and the public sector, playing a significant role in the broader digital transformation and enterprise productivity landscape.

Runs with full report Generated: Jul 30, 2026 7:42pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$12.37
as of Jul 30, 8:54pm (23d ago)
Change · Jul 30
-0.22 (-1.75%)
Day Range
$11.66 – $12.43
52-Week Range
$9.20 – $19.84
50-Day MA
$11.26
200-Day MA
$12.81
Volume
66,470,700.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 23d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 520,452,706.00
Float 410,040,379.00
Free Float 78.8%
Normal free float — 78.8% of shares trade freely, ~21.2% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:00pm (23d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:59pm (23d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 30, 2026 7:38pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.79
Stock Price: $12.37
EPS (Diluted): 0.52
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.24
Stock Price: $12.37
Total Equity: $2.08B
Shares: 544,860,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
75.11
Market Cap: $6.41B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $871.16M
EBITDA: $73.73M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.5B
Market Cap: $6.41B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $871.16M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
83.2%
Gross Profit: $1.34B
Revenue: $1.61B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
3.5%
Operating Income: $56.76M
Revenue: $1.61B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
17.5%
Net Income: $282.33M
Revenue: $1.61B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
13.6%
Net Income: $282.33M
Total Equity: $2.08B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
13.1%
Operating Income: $56.76M
Tax Rate: -180.6%
Equity: $2.08B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $871.16M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.48
Current Assets: $2.24B
Current Liabilities: $905.42M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $2.08B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$2.96
Revenue: $1.61B
Shares: 544,860,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$3.82
Total Equity: $2.08B
Shares: 544,860,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.65
Operating CF: $371.21M
CapEx: -$19.05M
Shares: 544,860,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $12.37
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $282.33M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 30, 2026 7:38pm
Compares PATH against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:59pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $892.3M $1.1B $1.3B $1.4B $1.6B
Cost of Revenue $168.9M $180.1M $195.9M $246.9M $271.0M
Gross Profit $723.4M $878.5M $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B
Operating Expenses $1.2B $1.2B $1.3B $1.3B $1.3B
Operating Income -$500.9M -$348.3M -$164.7M -$162.6M $56.8M
Net Income -$525.6M -$328.4M -$89.9M -$73.7M $282.3M
EBITDA -$486.2M -$329.6M -$142.1M -$145.3M $73.7M
EPS $-1.16 $-0.60 $-0.16 $-0.13 $0.52
EPS (Diluted) $-1.16 $-0.60 $-0.16 $-0.13 $0.52
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:31pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $1.8B $1.4B $1.1B $879.2M $871.2M
Total Current Assets $2.3B $2.3B $2.6B $2.3B $2.2B
Total Assets $2.6B $2.7B $3.0B $2.9B $3.2B
Current Liabilities $527.5M $626.5M $711.7M $798.9M $905.4M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $650.5M $815.0M $938.6M $1.0B $1.1B
Total Equity $1.9B $1.9B $2.0B $1.8B $2.1B
Retained Earnings -$1.5B -$1.8B -$1.9B -$2.0B -$1.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:59pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow -$55.0M -$10.0M $299.1M $320.6M $371.2M
Capital Expenditure -$8.9M -$23.8M -$7.3M -$14.9M -$19.0M
Free Cash Flow -$63.8M -$33.8M $291.7M $305.6M $352.2M
Acquisitions (net) -$5.5M -$29.5M $0 $0 -$24.8M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$102.6M -$390.8M -$329.1M
Net Change in Cash $1.4B -$366.6M -$340.0M -$182.5M -$8.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:59pm (23d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +18.6% +23.6% +9.3% +12.7%
Gross Profit Growth +21.4% +26.6% +6.3% +13.3%
Operating Income Growth +30.5% +52.7% +1.3% +134.9%
Net Income Growth +37.5% +72.6% +18.0% +483.1%
EBITDA Growth +32.2% +56.9% -2.3% +150.7%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:26
0.5 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +14%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 30%. Ratio 0.5:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($12.37)
Bull — recovery +27% 22.5% $14.11 +14%
Base — stabilizes +18% 19.6% $9.60 -22%
Bear — keeps slipping +9% 16.6% $6.36 -49%
Stress — last quarter repeats +14% 19.6% $8.68 -30%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-07-31) — growth stays at 14.4% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Apr 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +17.3% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jul 31, 2025 (revenue +14.4% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Apr 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PATH — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-30 20:31:16
Verdict I dissent from "Priced for Perfection." At $12.37 with $5.54B EV, 15%+ organic growth, $352M reported FCF, $871M net cash, and 83% gross margins, this is priced for stagnation, not perfection. The SBC-adjusted picture is the swing factor — if true owner FCF is $100M, fair value is $10-13; if the reported $352M is closer to real, fair value is $16-19. I'll split the difference at ~$15 fair value, ~20% upside, but conviction is capped by the agentic-disruption tail risk and the impossibility of trusting GAAP earnings this year. Starter position justified; not a table-pounder.

UiPath's quarterly revenue trajectory is not "steady" — it's seasonal SaaS with a January fiscal year, and the pattern is Q4-heavy. Comparing like quarters: Q1 FY26 (Apr'25) $418.4M vs Q1 FY25 $356.6M = +17.3% YoY, actually the strongest recent print. But Q4 FY26 (Jan'26) $481.1M vs Q4 FY25 $423.6M = +13.6%, and Q3 FY26 $411.1M vs Q3 FY25 $354.7M = +15.9%. So growth is running mid-teens, not the 12.7% the momentum module reports. That's a meaningful upward revision. Full-year FY26 revenue of $1.61B vs FY25 $1.43B = +12.6%. The trajectory is decelerating from the 20%+ era but stabilizing in the mid-teens, which is better than the "maturing RPA market" narrative implies.

The earnings picture is far messier than the P/E suggests. FY26 net income of $282M is inflated by a $198.8M net income quarter in Oct'25 that dwarfs the $56.8M full-year operating income — this is almost certainly a deferred tax asset valuation allowance release, not operating earnings. Strip that out and true operating NI is closer to $80-100M on $1.61B revenue, or ~5-6% net margin, not 17.5%. The 23.8x P/E is therefore fictitious; normalized P/E is closer to 65-80x. The honest anchor is FCF: $352M against a $6.41B market cap, less $871M cash = $5.54B EV, so ~15.7x EV/FCF. That's the number that matters, and it's genuinely cheap for a 15% grower with 83% gross margins and zero debt.

The prior models are internally contradictory and I side against the "Priced for Perfection" verdict. The classification bot calls it a mature earner; the pre-flight calls it high-growth; the thesis eval says priced for perfection at 4.0x sales — but 4.0x sales for a 15% grower with $352M FCF and 22% FCF margin is not perfection pricing, it's mid-tier SaaS pricing with pessimism baked in. Palantir trades at 60x sales, ServiceNow at 15x, Salesforce at 7x. UiPath at 3.4x EV/sales is priced closer to a declining legacy vendor. The contrarian bear case is real though: RPA is genuinely being cannibalized by LLM-native agent frameworks (LangChain, OpenAI Operator, Anthropic's computer use), and UiPath's "Agentic Automation" pivot is defensive. NRR has been compressing across the RPA cohort. If growth slips to single digits in FY27, the multiple compresses further and FCF stalls.

What I can't see in this data: net revenue retention, ARR vs revenue split, stock-based comp (critical — SBC is likely $300-400M annually for UiPath, which would wipe out most of the $352M FCF on a true economic basis), customer concentration, and any read on the agentic product traction. The absence of insider transactions is notable given founder Daniel Dines' history of selling; either the feed is stale or the insider window has been closed, which itself would be a mild positive tell ahead of a print. Macro headwinds flag is legitimate — enterprise software deal cycles have elongated and UiPath's federal exposure adds tariff/DOGE-adjacent risk. I'd want to stress-test FCF assuming SBC-adjusted FCF is closer to $50-100M, which would make the 55-110x multiple look demanding.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-30 20:31:32
Verdict Undervalued at $12.37 — the market is discounting a stalled story, but net cash, 22% FCF margins, and low-teens growth support closer to $14-$16 if profitability stays real.

What stands out is that UiPath is no longer the cash-burning “story stock” many investors still reflexively think it is, but the market is also right not to pay a premium growth multiple for what has become a much slower business. Revenue grew from $1.43B to $1.61B in FY2026, about 12.6%, and the latest quarter was similar at $418.4M versus $356.6M, up 17.3% YoY. That is respectable, but not enough to justify treating this as a high-growth platform category winner. The real improvement is below the revenue line: operating income swung from -$162.6M to +$56.8M, operating margin reached 3.5%, and free cash flow hit $352.2M, a hefty 21.9% of revenue. With $871.2M of cash and no debt, the balance sheet is clean and gives the equity real durability. At roughly $6.4B market cap and about $5.5B enterprise value, investors are paying around 3.4x EV/revenue and roughly 15-16x EV/FCF. For a sticky software company with 83.2% gross margin and genuine cash generation, that is not expensive.

The bigger issue is the quality and sustainability of the earnings optics. Net income of $282.3M on only $56.8M of operating income tells you reported earnings are flattered by non-operating items, tax effects, or other accounting gains rather than core operating leverage alone. Quarterly margins make that even clearer: net margin was 48.4% in the October quarter and then 21.7% in January before dropping to 5.4% in the latest quarter. That is not the profile of a business with settled, predictable earning power. So I reject the “mature earner” framing if it implies stable earnings quality; this is still a transition story. But I also reject the “priced for perfection” conclusion. A stock at 4.2x sales with net cash, positive FCF, and a demonstrated path from deeply negative operating margins to positive territory is not being valued like perfection. It is being valued like a company the market is still skeptical will reaccelerate.

My read is that the stock is modestly undervalued because the downside looks fairly well protected by the cash-rich balance sheet, high gross margins, and actual free-cash-flow generation, while the upside only requires the business to sustain low-teens growth and mid-teens FCF margins. Even if you haircut reported earnings and value UiPath on cash flow instead, the multiple is acceptable for software with these unit economics. The market cap is only about 18x current FCF, and after backing out cash it falls further. If revenue can compound around 10-12% and free cash flow stays above $300M, a valuation closer to 5x revenue or around $14-$16 per share is not heroic. The stock looks miscast as a broken former grower when the data actually show a company that has already crossed into self-funded profitability.

The best case against this is that revenue has decelerated sharply from the historical SaaS ideal, and once a software name slows to low-teens growth, the market often compresses it regardless of margins. FY2026 revenue growth of 12.6% on an 83% gross margin should arguably have produced more than a 3.5% operating margin if this were a truly elite software model; the fact it did not may indicate high sales intensity and a tougher competitive environment than the gross margin alone suggests. The latest quarter’s $22.5M net income on $418.4M of revenue is only a 5.4% margin, so if the October and January quarters contained unusually favorable items, the trailing P/E of 23.8x may actually understate the true multiple on normalized earnings. A bear can also argue that RPA is maturing just as AI agents threaten to commoditize parts of the workflow automation stack, leaving UiPath caught between slowing core demand and an expensive reinvestment cycle. If that is right, 3.4x EV/revenue is fair, not cheap.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next few quarters show revenue growth slipping into single digits while operating margin falls back toward breakeven and annual FCF drops materially below $250M, then the “cheap on cash flow” case is a trap and fair value is below $10. On the other hand, if UiPath can put up two or three consecutive quarters of 12-15% revenue growth with cleaner operating profitability—say 8-10% operating margin rather than earnings boosted below the line—then the market will have to re-rate it as a durable software compounder rather than a stalled automation vendor.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-07-30 20:32:24
Verdict Undervalued at $12.37 — 3.4x EV/S and ~16x FCF for an 83% GM, debt-free software name just beginning to show operating leverage

The numbers tell a company that has quietly crossed a structural threshold while the market still prices it as unfinished business. Fiscal 2026 delivered $1.61B revenue, up 12.6% from $1.43B, with free cash flow of $352M—a 22% FCF margin—on only $57M of operating income and a pristine balance sheet carrying $871M cash and zero debt. Gross margin sits at 83%, and the operating-line swing from a $163M loss the prior year to a $57M profit on just $180M of incremental revenue shows real leverage kicking in. The most recent quarter (April 2026) printed $418M, up roughly 17% year-over-year from $357M, suggesting the low-teens deceleration may be stabilizing rather than collapsing. At $12.37 the equity is $6.41B; enterprise value after cash is roughly $5.5B, or 3.4x sales and about 16x trailing FCF. That is not a perfection multiple for an 83-gross-margin software franchise that has already turned cash-flow positive at scale.

The contradiction that matters is between GAAP net income and the underlying engine. Reported NI of $282M (17.5% net margin) and a 23.8x P/E look tidy, yet operating margin is only 3.5% and the October 2025 quarter alone threw off $199M of net income at a 48% margin—clearly non-operating or one-time items, most likely tax-valuation-allowance releases that will not recur. Strip those away and the market is paying a far richer multiple on true run-rate earnings power. Revenue CAGR has slowed to 11%, and sequential seasonality remains sharp ($481M in January down to $418M in April). Rule-based models calling this a “mature earner” and pre-flight labels of “high-growth” are both half-right and therefore both misleading; it is a mid-teens grower whose profitability is real in cash but still optically fragile in GAAP operating income. Insider activity is pure award and withhold noise—zero signal.

The strongest bear case is straightforward: RPA is maturing, Microsoft and others are bundling automation, and the 38% drawdown from the 52-week high already embeds skepticism that AI agents expand the TAM rather than just re-label existing bots. If growth settles into high-single-digits while operating margin stalls in the mid-single-digits, the 3.4x sales multiple compresses further and the stock is dead money. The elevated EV/EBITDA of 75x correctly flags that earnings quality is still thin. I weigh this less heavily because FCF already exceeds $350M, net cash is 14% of market cap, and the operating-leverage math from here is asymmetric: every incremental point of margin on a $1.6B+ base drops heavily to cash. The market is pricing a growth scare that the latest quarterly trajectory has not confirmed.

I would flip to outright bearish if the next two quarters show revenue growth slipping below 10% year-over-year with FCF margins compressing, or if management guides to flat operating margins into fiscal 2027. I would become more aggressive if Q2/Q3 deliver sustained 15%+ growth and operating margin expands cleanly above 10% without one-time crutches.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 7.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 7.0
undervalued · conviction 2/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-30 21:04:15
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 6/10
Real business with a fortress balance sheet, but at $12.37 I'm paying for growth the numbers haven't earned back — wait for a better price.
The cruxWhether the $352M reported FCF is real owner earnings or a mirage created by 18% SBC — that single question decides if fair value is ~$7 or ~$15.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PATH's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+26
Solid
edge √Σ 128 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 7/10

UiPath is a scaled RPA/automation software business with $1.61B revenue, 83% gross margins, and a genuinely fortress balance sheet: $1.47B net cash (23% of market cap) and $352M FCF, so survival math is a non-issue. The trajectory is real - operating margin has moved from -56% (2022) to +3.5% (2026), net income flipped positive to $282M, and FCF expanded from -$64M to $352M over four years. Earnings-quality checks are clean (Beneish -2.19, Altman Z 3.83, accruals -11.9%, OCF/NI 1.25x - i.e., cash exceeds reported earnings), which corroborates the reported turn. The soft spot is per-share economics. SBC runs 18.1% of revenue - a real, cash-equivalent cost that dwarfs GAAP net income and means 'adjusted' profitability materially overstates true owner earnings. Diluted shares grew from 454M (2022) to 545M (2026), a 4.6% CAGR, and buybacks recover only 43% of SBC, so shareholders are absorbing meaningful ongoing dilution. Insider tape shows only tax-withholding (F) and awards (A) - no open-market buys or sales, so no directional signal. Durability is inferable but not proven from this data: 83% gross margins and expanding operating leverage suggest a defensible niche, but competitive position vs. Microsoft Power Automate and broader AI-agent encroachment is a real overhang that this data cannot resolve.

Strengths 4
m80
Fortress balance sheet
$1.47B net cash with $352M FCF; zero debt-driven survival risk and ample capacity to self-fund investment or M&A.
m70
Genuine operating inflection
Operating margin improved from -56% to +3.5% and FCF from -$64M to $352M over four years while revenue grew ~80%, indicating real operating leverage.
m55
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.25x, accruals -11.9% of assets, Beneish M -2.19, Altman Z 3.83 - reported profitability is backed by cash, not accruals.
m45
Software-caliber gross margin
Gross margin sits at 83% (peaked 85% in 2024), consistent with a defensible software product economically.
Concerns 4
m70
SBC is the real cost
SBC at 18.1% of revenue (~$290M) exceeds GAAP net income of $282M; strip it out and 'true' owner earnings are near break-even, not $282M.
m55
Persistent per-share dilution
Diluted shares up from 454M to 545M (4.6% CAGR); buybacks recover only 43% of SBC, so per-share value is being steadily eroded despite the cash return.
m40
Revenue growth decelerating
Growth slowed from ~19% to ~9% to ~13% (last three prints) - the business is maturing quickly and the AI-agent competitive backdrop is unfriendly.
m25
No insider directional signal
All recent insider activity is tax-withholding (F) or awards (A); no open-market P or S transactions to corroborate management conviction either way.
This is a real business that has genuinely turned the corner - the balance sheet is untouchable, cash generation is legitimate (not accrual-driven), and operating leverage is showing up in the numbers. But I cannot ignore that ~18% of revenue leaks out as stock comp every year, dilution is running near 5%, and buybacks are basically a bailing pump for SBC rather than capital return. Growth has also cooled meaningfully into the low teens just as agentic AI reshapes the automation category. Call it Solid: sound, improving, self-funding, but not yet a business whose per-share compounding machine is fully proven.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Net revenue retention and customer concentration in the latest 10-K
  • ARR growth and mix between RPA renewals vs. AI-agent products
  • Competitive positioning commentary vs. Microsoft Power Automate and agentic AI entrants
  • Any convertible notes or off-balance-sheet obligations not reflected in the net-cash figure
  • Trajectory of SBC as % of revenue - is it declining as the company scales?
  • Buyback authorization size and pace vs. ongoing SBC issuance
Valuation / Mispricing
-71
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 108 · conf 6/10
Price $12.37 vs composite deserved ~$6.87-7.73, roughly 40-45% overvalued; even the generous DCF at $11.88 only matches price with zero margin of safety. attractive below $8.50

The e2e synthesis pegs composite FV at $6.87 and signal-adjusted FV at $7.73 against a $12.37 price - roughly 38% downside. The DCF alone gets to $11.88 (near price) but the EPV floor is negative $3.15, meaning strip out growth optionality and the current earnings base doesn't support the equity value. The gap between DCF and EPV is the whole ballgame: you are paying entirely for future growth on a business whose growth has decelerated to the mid-teens. The quality lens flags 18% SBC and ~5% dilution, which is a real deserved-value haircut - buybacks are just offsetting comp, not returning capital.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Fortress balance sheet supports floor
Net cash cushion and freshly positive GAAP earnings mean the downside from here isn't catastrophic; a quality-adjusted deserved value probably sits closer to $8-9 than the $6.87 composite.
Rich / priced-in 4
m62
Price 60%+ above composite FV
Composite $6.87 and signal-adjusted $7.73 both sit well below $12.37; e2e flags -38% upside. Even weighting the friendlier DCF ($11.88), you get essentially zero margin of safety.
m70
EPV floor is negative
EPV of -$3.15 means current earnings power alone does not justify equity value - 100% of the price is growth optionality on a company growing mid-teens with heavy competition.
m45
SBC/dilution haircut
18% SBC-to-revenue and ~4.6% annual share creep are a permanent tax on per-share value; buybacks merely neutralize comp rather than compound owners.
m30
Narrative already re-rated
The fallen-angel bounce has restored an AI-infrastructure premium; the market is again paying for the bull case (agentic AI, platform) that hasn't shown up in the growth line.
I can't call this cheap. The only method that gets me near the tape is the DCF, and it needs growth assumptions the business hasn't earned back yet. EPV is negative, meaning I'm paying $12 for future growth on a decelerating mid-teens grower whose per-share economics leak 5% a year to dilution. It's a good balance sheet and a real business, but a fair-to-rich price. I'd want it under ~$8.50 before the risk/reward flips; between $8.50 and $10 it's interesting but not urgent.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • ARR growth trajectory and net revenue retention in next 2 quarters
  • FY guidance revisions - any sign of re-acceleration vs continued deceleration
  • SBC run-rate and whether dilution moderates below 4%
  • Competitive win/loss vs Microsoft Power Automate and agentic AI entrants
  • Free cash flow ex-SBC to test if EPV floor is really negative
General Sentiment
-23
Balanced
tail √Σ 60 · head √Σ 84 · conf 6/10

PATH sits in a genuinely ambiguous sentiment pocket. The dominant narrative is 'fallen-angel RPA vendor' - an 80% drawdown from bubble highs has left a strong-intensity but only moderately durable story that swings between 'foundational AI-automation pick-and-shovel' and 'mid-market vendor about to be crushed by hyperscalers.' Recent news flow is neither punishing nor rewarding: multiple 'below fair value' pieces provide a mild valuation-support drumbeat, while head-to-head comparisons against Marvell and Snowflake frame PATH as the cheap-but-slow option - a lukewarm framing that caps upside enthusiasm.

Tailwinds 2
m45
Below-fair-value drumbeat in news flow
Multiple recent articles explicitly frame PATH as trading below intrinsic value after its slump. This is a genuine, if soft, sentiment tailwind - it seeds bottom-fishing interest and dampens further downside pressure.
m40
Momentum has quietly turned positive
Price action shows a positive multi-year inflection off deeply washed-out levels. Tape-followers reward that pattern in fallen-angel names, and it partly offsets the narrative overhang.
Headwinds 4
m55
Fallen-angel stigma still dominates
The bubble-era IPO at $56 and peak near $90 anchor the narrative in disappointment. Fallen-angel names need a fresh catalyst to escape their story, and PATH has no clear one - the tape treats it as a value trap until proven otherwise.
m50
Hyperscaler-disruption overhang
The bear framing that Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are eating standalone RPA is the exact type of AI-disruption narrative currently de-rating point-solution software. This is the single most active sector-level headwind on this cohort.
m30
Neutral-to-tight macro tape
10y at 4.61% and market PE 26.2 keep pressure on lower-growth software names. Beta near 1.0 means PATH gets an average dose - not amplified, but not shielded either.
m25
Comparative framing is lukewarm
Recent 'vs Marvell' and 'vs Snowflake' pieces cast PATH as the cheaper but slower-growing option. That framing suppresses the growth-investor bid without creating a clear value catalyst.
Net read is roughly balanced with a mild negative lean. The fallen-angel narrative is strong but not actively collapsing further - it is grinding sideways, which in sentiment terms is a slow bleed rather than a shock. The 'below fair value' news drumbeat and the quietly positive momentum offset most of that, but PATH lacks a fresh narrative to force real tailwind flows, and the hyperscaler-disruption story remains the dormant volcano. I would call this a stock where sentiment is not the reason to act - it is neither pushing you out nor pulling you in.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any AI-agent or Agentic Automation product announcement that could refresh the narrative arc
  • Guidance revisions or analyst target changes that would confirm the story is stabilizing
  • Hyperscaler moves (Microsoft Power Automate pricing/features) that could reignite the disruption bear case
  • Whether the 'below fair value' framing gains traction with sell-side or fades
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -17.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Jul 31, 2026, PATH was $12.37. We expect it to be $10.20 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $8.50. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 31, 2026.

Price when predicted$12.37
Our estimate for Jan 2027$10.20-17.5%
Great value below$8.50
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06