Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$144.50
6-month call
Bear -8.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$132.50
Great value below
$120.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.3% to $132.50
Predicted High
$143.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$132.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:44 am
Bear
PG trends lower to
$132.50
(-8.3% from $144.50)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisPG is a defensive compounder trading at a premium with weak sentiment, a cautious FY27 guide, and no near-term catalyst. Expect gradual de-rating toward fair value in the $125-135 zone over six months, with a low-beta drift rather than a sharp break, punctuated by a mild autumn earnings-season wobble.
Invalidated ifA reacceleration in organic sales growth on the next print or a risk-off rotation into staples pushing PG above $150 would falsify the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $144.50 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $144.50 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $137.87–$151.13 typical range · internal point $143.80 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Mild drift lower on stale sentiment, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $144.55 on Aug 14, 2026 = +0.0% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $134.90–$154.10 typical range · internal point $142.50 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | HSBC downgrade overhang, low-beta neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $146.21 on Sep 1, 2026 = +1.2% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.6%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $139.80 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings de-risking, staples rotation weak |
| What actually happened: closed $145.28 on Sep 30, 2026 = +0.5% vs the call (predicted -3.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $137.00 | — | -5.2% | 5/10 | Q1 FY27 print reinforces cautious guide |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $135.50 | — | -6.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $134.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims premium compounders |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $132.50 | — | -8.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward DCF and deserved value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $141.66 (-2.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $144.50 |
| Composite fair value | $117.77 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $110.84 |
| DCF fair value | $110.51 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $169.07 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $120.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.3% 3m 23.0% 6m 22.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.13 3m -0.22 5m 0.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | PG-20260801-001034-e2ad |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PG-20260801-003431-3aa7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PG-20260801-003431-3aa7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PG-20260801-003431-3aa7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PG-20260801-003431-3aa7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | PG-20260801-001034-e2ad |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $144.50 | $132.50 | -8.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $150.86 | $150.10 | -0.5% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.