Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$215.34
6-month call
Neutral -2.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$210.00
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-2.5% to $210.00
Predicted High
$220.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$210.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:09 am
Neutral
PGR trends range-bound to
$210.00
(-2.5% from $215.34)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPGR is a high-quality compounder trading well above the value lens's attractive zone, with sentiment already fully embracing the story and a negative short beta muting risk-on tailwinds. The deterministic $440 endpoint implies a doubling in six months that has no catalyst on the calendar; more realistically, the stock grinds modestly higher on quality bid with mean-reversion pressure capping upside.
Invalidated ifA break above $235 on strong volume or a decisive break below $200 would falsify the drift-higher-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $215.34 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $215.34 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $200.84–$229.84 typical range · internal point $216.80 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and quality bid keep drift positive |
| What actually happened: closed $220.34 on Aug 20, 2026 = +2.3% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $194.33–$236.35 typical range · internal point $218.50 | — | ±9.8% | 6/10 | Compounder narrative sustains modest grind higher |
| What actually happened: closed $218.95 on Sep 4, 2026 = +1.7% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $220.00 | — | +2.2% | 5/10 | Low beta mutes tape, sentiment plateau near highs |
| What actually happened: closed $212.05 on Oct 6, 2026 = -1.5% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P +0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $218.00 | — | +1.2% | 4/10 | No earnings catalyst, valuation gravity begins pressing |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $214.00 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Value lens overhang and profit-taking trim gains |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $212.00 | — | -1.6% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward attractive-below zone continues |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $210.00 | — | -2.5% | 3/10 | Rich multiple fades as narrative freshness wears off |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $439.94 (+104.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $215.34 |
| Composite fair value | $621.83 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $871.33 |
| DCF fair value | $798.86 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $267.78 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -36 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.2% 3m 33.8% 6m 28.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.14 3m -1.05 5m -0.69 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | PGR-20260807-000819-b837 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGR-20260807-005507-424f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGR-20260807-005507-424f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGR-20260807-005507-424f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGR-20260807-005507-424f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | PGR-20260807-000819-b837 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $215.34 | $210.00 | -2.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.