Made on
Aug 2, 2026
Price at call
$123.06
6-month call
Bear -16.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$103.00
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-16.3% to $103.00
Predicted High
$121.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$103.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-16.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 2, 2026 12:39 am
Bear
PLTR trends lower to
$103.00
(-16.3% from $123.06)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisPLTR is a momentum name in a sentiment-negative regime with a fair value roughly one-fifth of spot; near-term the LLM-wrapper narrative crack and RBC downgrade should keep pressure on, and while a snap-back bounce is possible, value gravity plus a stale rally set up a grinding drift lower over six months toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA reclaim of $145 on strong volume or a blowout guide raise would invalidate the downside drift; conversely a break below $95 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $123.06 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 2, 2026 | — | $123.06 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 16, 2026 | $109.44–$136.68 typical range · internal point $118.50 | — | ±11.1% | 6/10 | post-drawdown continuation, downgrade weighs on tape |
| What actually happened: closed $174.04 on Aug 14, 2026 = +41.4% vs the call (predicted -3.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 45.1 pp · accuracy 1/10 · typical range ±11.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 2, 2026 | $103.33–$142.79 typical range · internal point $121.00 | — | ±16.0% | 5/10 | oversold bounce as sellers exhaust short-term |
| 2 months | Oct 2, 2026 | $115.00 | — | -6.5% | 5/10 | earnings season pressures rich-multiple names |
| 3 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $109.00 | — | -11.4% | 5/10 | narrative crack deepens, valuation gravity engages |
| 4 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $106.00 | — | -13.9% | 4/10 | year-end de-risking on extended AI winners |
| 5 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $104.00 | — | -15.5% | 4/10 | tax-loss rebalancing fades, base near baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $103.00 | — | -16.3% | 4/10 | converges toward deterministic endpoint, still above FV |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $103.24 (-16.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $123.06 |
| Composite fair value | $21.94 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $22.92 |
| DCF fair value | $25.48 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | -89 |
| Value confidence | 9 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +54 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 46.1% 3m 55.5% 6m 57.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.14 3m 0.80 5m 0.99 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -19.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | PLTR-20260802-000311-efeb |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PLTR-20260802-002813-6a65 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PLTR-20260802-002813-6a65 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PLTR-20260802-002813-6a65 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PLTR-20260802-002813-6a65 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | PLTR-20260802-000311-efeb |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | PLTR-20260802-000311-efeb |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $123.06 | $103.00 | -16.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 25, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.