Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$190.81
6-month call
Bear -5.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$181.00
Great value below
$135.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.1% to $181.00
Predicted High
$193.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$181.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:44 am
Bear
PM trends lower to
$181.00
(-5.1% from $190.81)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPM trades well above every valuation anchor but rides a strong defensive-growth narrative with positive momentum and no near-term earnings catalyst to break it. Momentum likely persists near-term before value gravity slowly pulls the name back toward the deterministic endpoint, though not all the way to fair value.
Invalidated ifA break below $175 on volume or a regime flip to risk-off with sector rotation into cyclicals would falsify the near-term strength; conversely, sustained closes above $200 would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $190.81 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $190.81 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $178.98–$202.64 typical range · internal point $192.50 | — | ±6.2% | 7/10 | 52-week-high momentum and defensive bid persist short-term |
| What actually happened: closed $190.40 on Aug 14, 2026 = -0.2% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $173.67–$207.95 typical range · internal point $193.80 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Narrative intact, no earnings catalyst to disrupt tape |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $191.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings window approaches, positioning cautious |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $188.00 | — | -1.5% | 5/10 | Earnings likely beat but reaction muted at rich multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $185.50 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on extended defensive winners |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $183.00 | — | -4.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity asserts as anchors sit far below |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $181.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic endpoint, not full fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $181.42 (-4.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $190.81 |
| Composite fair value | $116.23 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $119.40 |
| DCF fair value | $130.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $117.06 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $135.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.0% 3m 31.1% 6m 31.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.80 3m -0.57 5m -0.09 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | PM-20260801-001034-d3f0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PM-20260801-003431-a698 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PM-20260801-003431-a698 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PM-20260801-003431-a698 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PM-20260801-003431-a698 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | PM-20260801-001034-d3f0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | PM-20260801-001034-d3f0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $190.81 | $181.00 | -5.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 25, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $178.78 | $176.21 | -1.4% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.