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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 66 · Value -74 · Sentiment 59 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $116.54 vs $190.81 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM NYSEPhilip Morris International Inc. is a global tobacco and nicotine company focused on manufacturing and marketing smoke-free and combustible products worldwide. Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, with major operational centers in Lausanne, the company serves a broad international customer base across the Americas, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Philip Morris International Inc. offers a portfolio that includes traditional cigarettes and cigarillos, alongside smoke-free products such as heated tobacco systems, vapor devices, and oral nicotine pouches. Key brands include Marlboro in combustible products and IQOS and ZYN in smoke-free and oral nicotine categories. The company also provides related consumer accessories, as well as wellness and healthcare products through its specialized business segment. Organized into regional divisions such as Europe, Americas, South and Southeast Asia, CIS, Middle East and Africa, and East Asia and Australia, Philip Morris International Inc. plays a significant role in the consumer staples sector, supplying branded tobacco and reduced-risk products to adult consumers in numerous markets around the world.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.26
Total Equity: -$8.03B
Shares: 1,558,000,000
Total Debt: $168.00M
Cash: $4.87B
EBITDA: $16.89B
Total Debt: $168.00M
Cash: $4.87B
Revenue: $40.65B
Revenue: $40.65B
Revenue: $40.65B
Total Equity: -$8.03B
Tax Rate: 19.7%
Equity: -$8.03B
Total Debt: $168.00M
Cash: $4.87B
Current Liabilities: $25.43B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $168.00M
Total Equity: -$8.03B
Shares: 1,558,000,000
Shares: 1,558,000,000
CapEx: -$1.57B
Shares: 1,558,000,000
Stock Price: $192.00
Net Income: $11.35B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.4B | $31.8B | $35.2B | $37.9B | $40.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $10.0B | $11.4B | $12.9B | $13.3B | $13.4B |
| Gross Profit | $21.4B | $20.4B | $22.3B | $24.5B | $27.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $8.4B | $8.1B | $10.7B | $11.1B | $12.4B |
| Operating Income | $13.0B | $12.2B | $11.6B | $13.4B | $14.9B |
| Net Income | $9.1B | $9.0B | $7.8B | $7.1B | $11.3B |
| EBITDA | $14.0B | $13.3B | $13.0B | $15.2B | $16.9B |
| EPS | $5.83 | $5.82 | $5.02 | $4.53 | $7.27 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.83 | $5.81 | $5.02 | $4.52 | $7.26 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $4.5B | $3.2B | $3.1B | $4.2B | $4.9B |
| Total Current Assets | $17.7B | $19.6B | $19.8B | $20.2B | $24.4B |
| Total Assets | $41.3B | $61.7B | $65.3B | $61.8B | $69.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $19.3B | $27.3B | $26.4B | $22.9B | $25.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $49.5B | $68.0B | $74.8B | $71.7B | $77.2B |
| Total Equity | -$8.2B | -$6.3B | -$9.4B | -$9.9B | -$8.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $33.1B | $34.3B | $34.1B | $32.9B | $35.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:10am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $12.0B | $10.8B | $9.2B | $12.2B | $12.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$748.0M | -$1.1B | -$1.3B | -$1.4B | -$1.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.2B | $9.7B | $7.9B | $10.8B | $10.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$2.1B | -$14.0B | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$3.0B | $3.2B | $7.4B | $3.3B | $1.7B |
| Dividends Paid | -$7.6B | -$7.8B | -$8.0B | -$8.2B | -$8.6B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$775.0M | -$209.0M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$2.8B | -$1.3B | -$71.0M | $1.1B | $638.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +1.1% | +10.7% | +7.7% | +7.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -4.7% | +9.4% | +10.2% | +11.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | -5.6% | -5.6% | +16.0% | +11.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -0.7% | -13.6% | -9.7% | +60.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | -4.7% | -2.8% | +17.3% | +11.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-19 | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-26 | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-03 | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-27 | $1.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-20 | $1.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-26 | $1.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-26 | $1.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-21 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-20 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-20 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-26 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-22 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-22 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-21 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-27 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-30 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-23 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-22 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-28 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:55Even the bull case prices 18% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 47%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($190.81) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +11% | 34.3% | $155.79 | -18% |
| Base — stabilizes | +7% | 29.8% | $122.07 | -36% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +4% | 25.4% | $93.71 | -51% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +7% | 24.8% | $101.93 | -47% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue went $9.30B → $10.14B → $10.85B → $10.36B → $10.15B → $11.19B, so the "decelerating" tag is misleading — Q2 2026 is an all-time high and up 10.4% YoY versus Q2 2025. Net income is noisier because Q4 2024 carried a -$579M print (Swedish Match/impairment noise) and Q3 2025 had a suspicious 32.1% margin spike, but the trailing four quarters generate roughly $10.9B of NI on ~$42.5B revenue — a genuine 25%+ net margin business. FCF of $10.66B against a $299B market cap is a 3.6% FCF yield, plus a 3.06% dividend at a 76% payout that is comfortably covered. Negative book equity (-$8.03B) is a leverage artifact from buybacks and the Swedish Match deal, not distress — net debt sits well under 2x EBITDA given ~$13B EBITDA run-rate.
The synthesis model's $116 fair value implies you're paying 60% narrative premium, which I think overstates the gap. A reverse-DCF at $192: with $10.7B FCF growing 6% for a decade fading to 2.5%, WACC 7.5%, you get roughly $175–195/share. That's not "priced for perfection" — that's priced for the growth PM is actually delivering (7.5% revenue CAGR, 20.5% earnings CAGR, ZYN volumes still compounding 30%+, IQOS taking share in Japan/Europe). The 26x P/E is optically rich versus historical tobacco 12–16x, but historical tobacco wasn't growing EPS 20%. Applying a static peer multiple to a company whose smoke-free mix is now ~40% of revenue and margin-accretive is exactly the category error the pre-flight flagged. I dissent from the synthesis's $116 anchor — that number implicitly assumes combustible-like terminal growth, which contradicts the momentum data in the same file.
Where the contrarian case has teeth: (1) ZYN capacity constraints have been resolved, meaning the easy comps roll off in 2026 — Q2 2026's 10% growth could compress to 4–5% by late 2027. (2) FDA/EU regulatory posture on oral nicotine pouches is the real tail risk; a synthetic nicotine ban or youth-use crackdown could halve ZYN's TAM overnight. (3) Q3 2025's 32.1% net margin looks like a tax/one-time benefit — normalized margins are closer to 25%, and Q1/Q2 2026 have already reverted. (4) The current ratio of 0.96 and negative equity mean there's zero balance-sheet cushion for a major litigation surprise or FX shock (PM is ~100% ex-US revenue, so DXY strength directly compresses reported growth). (5) Insider activity isn't shown, which is a gap — for a mature dividend name, sustained insider selling would matter. The narrative model's "fallen-angel/moderate durability" read is the sharpest framing in the file: this works until it doesn't, and the failure mode is discrete (regulation) not gradual.
Net: I partially dissent from the "overvalued -37%" synthesis verdict. PM is fully valued, not egregiously overvalued. Fair value is $170–185 by my DCF, meaning the stock is maybe 5–10% rich, not 37%. The composite model is anchoring on stale tobacco multiples and ignoring that earnings CAGR is 20%+ and FCF CAGR is 16%. That said, I don't see a compelling long here at $192 either — the risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside because the regulatory tail is fat and the narrative premium is real (even if smaller than the synthesis claims). A patient buyer should wait for $165–170, where the 3.5%+ yield and 6% FCF yield give a real margin of safety. Current holders shouldn't sell — the compounding is genuine — but new money at $192 is paying full freight for a story that has moderate durability by the narrative model's own admission. The most honest read: the market has this roughly right, and both the bulls at $220 and the synthesis model at $116 are anchored to different eras of the same company.
GPT Reading
At $192, PM is being valued less like a tobacco compounder and more like a consumer-health transformation winner, and the raw numbers only partly support that. The business is undeniably executing operationally: 2025 revenue reached $40.65B, up 7.3% from $37.88B in 2024 and up nearly 30% from $31.41B in 2021. Operating income rose to $14.89B from $13.40B, and free cash flow hit $10.66B on $12.23B of operating cash flow, which is elite conversion for a staples name. On a trailing run-rate basis, the last four quarters produced about $42.6B of revenue and $10.9B of net income, so this is not a stagnating franchise. But the valuation already assumes that this elevated growth-and-margin profile is durable. At 26.4x earnings, 7.4x sales, and 17.4x EV/EBITDA, PM trades far above the range a cash-harvesting nicotine incumbent usually deserves, especially with only a 3.1% dividend yield and a 76% payout ratio that limits upside from capital returns alone.
What stands out most is that the market is capitalizing peak-quality earnings while underweighting how unusual some of the recent margin profile is. Quarterly net margins ran at 28.9%, 30.0%, 32.1%, then dropped to 20.7%, 24.0%, and 25.2% over the last three reported quarters. That still looks strong, but it is a meaningful step down from the 30%+ zone that made the transformation story feel bulletproof. The annual net margin of 27.9% in 2025 was flattered by a rebound from the odd 2024 loss quarter; if you normalize against 2021-2023 net income of roughly $9.1B, $9.1B, and $7.8B, 2025’s $11.35B is excellent but not obviously a new floor. The stock is priced as though smoke-free growth can offset combustible decline and hold consolidated margins near best-in-class levels indefinitely. That may happen, but when a mature consumer defensive trades at nearly 7x revenue, “very good” execution is not enough; it needs “consistently beats ambitious expectations.”
The balance sheet presentation also deserves skepticism. Reported total debt of just $168M alongside negative equity of $8.03B is economically implausible for a company of this size unless the debt figure is incomplete or narrowly defined. I would not take comfort from the apparently net-cash balance sheet; the more reliable anchor here is cash generation, and on that basis PM is sturdy, not cheap. A $299B market cap against $10.66B of free cash flow is about a 3.6% FCF yield. For a business exposed to regulation, taxation, volume decline in combustibles, and category-specific policy risk in reduced-risk products, that is a thin yield. You are effectively paying a premium multiple for a company whose core virtue remains stability. Stability is valuable, but not infinitely valuable.
The best argument against my cautious view is straightforward: PM’s growth is simply better than the old tobacco playbook, and the market is right to pay up. Revenue has advanced from $35.17B in 2023 to $40.65B in 2025, operating margin remains a huge 36.6%, gross margin is 67.1%, and recent quarterly revenue growth is still positive despite the law of large numbers. If smoke-free products are driving mix improvement, then comparing PM to a legacy cigarette annuity understates the duration of growth and overstates terminal decline risk. A 26x P/E is not absurd if earnings can compound high single digits with very low capital intensity, and a 3% yield plus mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth can still produce a satisfactory shareholder return. I weigh that argument less heavily because the stock is already discounting it. There is little room here for an adoption pause, margin compression, or a regulatory wobble; the upside case requires execution to remain near flawless.
What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 was not close to peak profitability but an intermediate step. If PM can sustain quarterly revenue above $11B while keeping net margins back above 28% for several quarters, and convert that into annual free cash flow north of $12B, then today’s multiple would look more defendable. Conversely, if revenue growth slips toward 3-4%, quarterly net income settles in the $2.3B-$2.6B range rather than $3B+, or management’s disclosures show smoke-free momentum is no longer expanding fast enough to cover combustible erosion, then the stock should de-rate sharply. For now, this is a great company priced as a great story too.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a cash engine still firing hard: 2025 revenue of $40.65B is up 7.3% year-over-year and sits on a five-year CAGR of 7.5%, while free cash flow hit $10.66B after only $1.57B of capex. Operating margin held at 36.6% and net margin at 27.9%, producing $11.35B of net income—nearly double the depressed 2024 figure that was skewed by a one-time Q4 loss. Quarterly run-rate has stayed above $10B for five straight periods, with the most recent June 2026 quarter printing $11.19B revenue and a clean 25.2% net margin. That is not the profile of a melting ice cube; combustibles plus IQOS/ZYN are still expanding the top line at a mid-single-digit clip while throwing off enough cash to cover a 76% payout ratio and a 3.1% dividend yield. The balance-sheet oddity of near-zero reported debt against negative equity is classic tobacco financial engineering (share repurchases and legacy liabilities), but the $12.23B operating cash flow dwarfs any near-term liquidity concern.
Where the story frays is valuation. At $192 the stock trades at 26.4x earnings, 7.4x sales and 17.4x EBITDA—multiples that embed the full success of the smoke-free pivot and leave almost no room for the regulatory or volume slippage that still defines the category. FCF yield is only ~3.6%, roughly equal to the dividend, so equity holders are not being paid extra for the execution risk. The 60% premium to the composite fair-value estimate of ~$119 is pure narrative carry: the market is capitalizing mid-single-digit revenue growth as if it will compound indefinitely at tobacco-plus margins. Recent quarterly revenue growth is already labeled decelerating, and the jump in earnings CAGR to 20.5% is partly base-effect recovery from 2024’s loss quarter rather than structural acceleration.
The strongest counter-argument is that the transformation is real and under-appreciated in the bearish models. Smoke-free products are taking share, gross margin has expanded to 67%, and the company is converting that into $10B-plus of annual FCF with fortress pricing power on the remaining combustible base. A smart opponent would note that historical 12–16x tobacco multiples applied to a shrinking cigarette-only business; once IQOS and ZYN are treated as a growth platform with regulatory tailwinds, 20–25x becomes defensible, especially with a 3% yield floor. They would also point out that negative equity is an accounting relic, not a solvency issue, and that ROA of 16.4% shows excellent capital efficiency. I weigh this less heavily because the absolute multiple still prices in flawless execution: any flattening of heated-tobacco volumes or tighter oral-nicotine rules collapses the premium overnight, and the current 26x leaves no margin of safety for that binary outcome.
I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance if the next two quarters show revenue re-accelerating above 8–9% with smoke-free mix high enough to push operating margin back through 38%, or if management guides 2026–27 FCF sustainably above $12B while holding the payout under 70%. A multiple compression toward 18–20x on unchanged fundamentals would also flip the risk-reward.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
PM is a mature, high-quality earner. Revenue compounded from 31.4B in 2021 to 40.65B in 2025 (roughly 6.6% CAGR), gross margin sits at 67.1% and operating margin at 36.6%, and 2025 net income of 11.35B converts to 10.66B of free cash flow. OCF/NI of 1.3x, accruals at -4.3% of assets, Beneish M of -2.38 and Altman Z of 4.32 all point to clean, cash-backed earnings with no mechanical red flags. Share count is essentially flat at 1.56B diluted since 2021, so per-share value is not being leaked through dilution.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Gross debt level, maturity ladder, and interest coverage from the 10-K balance sheet
- Smoke-free product (IQOS, ZYN) share of revenue and its growth vs. combustibles
- Whether 2025 net income of 11.35B contains material one-time gains vs. underlying run-rate
- Swedish Match integration status and any remaining acquisition-related charges
- Geographic concentration and FX exposure given global footprint
- Litigation and regulatory reserves (menthol, flavored nicotine pouch rulings)
The composite fair value lands at $116.23 and the signal-adjusted FV at $119.40, implying roughly -37% downside from $190.81. Each individual method agrees on direction: DCF $130.94, anchored P/E $117.06, EPV floor $85.96. Even the most generous DCF is ~31% below spot, and the EPV floor implies the current price is more than 2x the cash-earnings-only value - i.e. the market is capitalizing a lot of future IQOS/ZYN growth that has not yet been earned. Earnings quality is high (score 3), so no haircut is warranted; and the business is Strong (quality 66), which lifts deserved value but does not close a ~60-120% gap between price and the method range. Adjusting the anchored-PE upward for franchise quality still lands me around $130-140 deserved - a ~25-30% premium priced in today. What has to be true to justify $190: smoke-free ramps to majority of profit within a few years at combustible-like margins, regulatory risk stays benign globally, and FX/pricing stay supportive. That is plausible but not conservative - it is the bull case fully underwritten. There is no margin of safety here; this is a quality name trading rich, not a mispricing in my favor.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Smoke-free segment margin trajectory and share of operating profit in latest 10-Q/annual
- ZYN capacity constraints and US volume growth run-rate
- FDA/EU regulatory posture on oral nicotine and heated tobacco
- FX assumptions embedded in guidance vs current spot
- Net debt trajectory and dividend coverage under smoke-free capex plan
The macro tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16) but PM's 0.41 beta means broad market swings barely register here anyway; what matters is the stock-specific story, and that story is currently working. PM just printed 52-week highs alongside AAPL and KO in the past 72 hours, which is a tell that the market is bidding up the 'quality defensive with a growth angle' bucket, and PM is the poster child for it via ZYN and IQOS. The fallen-angel narrative has flipped: this is no longer a melting ice cube trade, it is being re-rated as a nicotine-platform growth story with fortress pricing.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any FDA/EU action on ZYN or heated tobacco - would crack the narrative fast
- IQOS/ZYN volume prints in the next earnings - narrative depends on continued growth beats
- Whether the defensive-quality bid holds if VIX compresses and risk-on rotates to cyclicals/AI
- Analyst target revisions post-ATH - watch for a downgrade-to-Hold on valuation
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 1, 2026, PM was $190.81. We expect it to be $181.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $135.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 1, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.