Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$31.69
6-month call
Bull +19.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$37.90
Great value below
$28.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.6% to $37.90
Predicted High
$37.90
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$31.95
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:03 pm
Bull
PPC trends higher to
$37.90
(+19.6% from $31.69)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisPPC screens cheap versus multiple fair value anchors but sits in a quiet narrative pocket with weak quality and negative six-month momentum. Expect a slow drift higher as value gravity works, with limited near-term catalyst and a negative beta cushioning downside in the risk-on tape.
Invalidated ifBreak below $28 support or a poultry margin warning would falsify the mean-reversion path
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $31.69 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $31.69 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $28.93–$34.45 typical range · internal point $31.95 | — | ±8.7% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst near term |
| What actually happened: closed $30.24 on Sep 11, 2026 = -4.6% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±8.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $27.69–$35.69 typical range · internal point $32.40 | — | ±12.6% | 5/10 | Modest post-earnings drift continues quietly |
| What actually happened: closed $28.11 on Sep 28, 2026 = -11.3% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.6%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $33.30 | — | +5.1% | 5/10 | Value screens attract patient buyers |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $34.50 | — | +8.9% | 4/10 | Q3 print window, cheap multiple supportive |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $35.60 | — | +12.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into cheap defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $36.80 | — | +16.1% | 3/10 | Value gravity toward signal-adjusted anchor |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $37.90 | — | +19.6% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $38.44 (+21.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $31.69 |
| Composite fair value | $47.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $42.65 |
| DCF fair value | $52.34 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $44.45 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $28.00 |
| Value net score | +34 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +16 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 52.6% 3m 43.7% 6m 39.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.81 3m -0.54 5m -0.23 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -26.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 26d behind | PPC-20260802-134330-347c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPC-20260829-001724-907a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPC-20260829-001724-907a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPC-20260829-001724-907a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPC-20260829-001724-907a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | PPC-20260829-000001-1e7b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | PPC-20260829-000001-1e7b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $31.69 | $37.90 | +19.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 5, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $28.76 | $38.41 | +33.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.