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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +55.4% growth but recent quarters show operating income -73.5% YoY (through 2026-06-28) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +21 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 52 · Value -5 · Sentiment -59 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $61.17 vs $27.36 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation

PPC NASDAQ
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Greeley, CO 80634-9038, United States pilgrims.com Updated Aug 2, 1:44pm
Price
$27.36
Market Cap
$6.5B
Employees
63,000
Beta
0.30
Avg Volume
1,687,723
CEO
Mr. Fabio Sandri

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation is a multinational food company specializing in chicken and pork products. Headquartered in Greeley, Colorado, it operates integrated production and processing facilities across the United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and selected European markets. The company focuses on producing, processing, marketing, and distributing fresh, frozen, and value-added poultry and pork items, including prepared, fully cooked, and convenience-oriented foods for retail, foodservice, and industrial customers. Pilgrim’s Pride offers a broad portfolio that spans commodity poultry, branded meats, snacking products, sausages, and chilled and frozen convenience foods, supplying major retailers, foodservice distributors, and restaurant chains, as well as export channels in more than 100 countries. As part of the JBS USA family of companies, Pilgrim’s Pride plays a significant role in global protein supply, leveraging large-scale, vertically integrated operations to serve consumer and institutional demand for meat and prepared food products.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 1:54pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$27.36
as of Aug 2, 2:00pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-1.98 (-6.75%)
Day Range
$27.25 – $29.18
52-Week Range
$26.50 – $50.56
50-Day MA
$28.58
200-Day MA
$35.52
Volume
1,971,400.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 238,108,524.00
Float 42,235,690.00
Free Float 17.7%
Low free float — 17.7% of shares trade freely, ~82.3% held by insiders/institutions
Below average liquidity. Large orders can move the price significantly. Insiders or strategic holders control the majority — watch for lockup expirations or secondary offerings.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:51pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
6.03
Stock Price: $27.36
EPS (Diluted): 4.54
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.77
Stock Price: $27.36
Total Equity: $3.69B
Shares: 238,449,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
2.84
Market Cap: $6.51B
Total Debt: $924,000
Cash: $640.24M
EBITDA: $2.07B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.9B
Market Cap: $6.51B
Total Debt: $924,000
Cash: $640.24M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
12.7%
Gross Profit: $2.36B
Revenue: $18.50B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
8.7%
Operating Income: $1.61B
Revenue: $18.50B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
5.9%
Net Income: $1.08B
Revenue: $18.50B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
29.3%
Net Income: $1.08B
Total Equity: $3.69B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
38.1%
Operating Income: $1.61B
Tax Rate: 27.9%
Equity: $3.69B
Total Debt: $924,000
Cash: $640.24M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.47
Current Assets: $4.24B
Current Liabilities: $2.89B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $924,000
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $924,000
Total Equity: $3.69B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$77.57
Revenue: $18.50B
Shares: 238,449,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$15.49
Total Equity: $3.69B
Shares: 238,449,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.74
Operating CF: $1.37B
CapEx: -$718.50M
Shares: 238,449,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $27.36
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
184.3%
Dividends Paid: -$1.99B
Net Income: $1.08B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:51pm
Compares PPC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $14.8B $17.5B $17.4B $17.9B $18.5B
Cost of Revenue $13.4B $15.7B $16.2B $15.6B $16.1B
Gross Profit $1.4B $1.8B $1.1B $2.3B $2.4B
Operating Expenses $1.2B $635.2M $596.1M $806.7M $744.6M
Operating Income $211.2M $1.2B $522.3M $1.5B $1.6B
Net Income $31.0M $745.9M $321.6M $1.1B $1.1B
EBITDA $592.0M $1.6B $942.2M $1.9B $2.1B
EPS $0.13 $3.11 $1.36 $4.58 $4.56
EPS (Diluted) $0.13 $3.10 $1.36 $4.57 $4.54
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:44pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $427.7M $401.0M $697.7M $2.0B $640.2M
Total Current Assets $3.3B $3.9B $4.2B $5.1B $4.2B
Total Assets $8.9B $9.3B $9.8B $10.7B $10.3B
Current Liabilities $2.4B $2.6B $2.5B $2.6B $2.9B
Long-Term Debt $3.3B $3.2B
Total Liabilities $6.3B $6.4B $6.5B $6.4B $6.6B
Total Equity $2.6B $2.9B $3.3B $4.3B $3.7B
Retained Earnings $1.0B $1.7B $2.1B $3.2B $2.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $326.5M $669.9M $677.9M $2.0B $1.4B
Capital Expenditure -$381.7M -$487.1M -$557.8M -$458.5M -$718.5M
Free Cash Flow -$55.2M $182.8M $120.1M $1.5B $653.2M
Acquisitions (net) -$966.8M -$9.7M $0 $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $945.5M -$25.8M $151.9M -$152.1M -$115.2M
Dividends Paid $0 $0 -$2.0B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash -$98.3M -$15.4M $296.5M $1.3B -$1.4B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +18.2% -0.6% +3.0% +3.5%
Gross Profit Growth +32.7% -38.3% +106.8% +2.0%
Operating Income Growth +457.2% -55.6% +188.4% +7.1%
Net Income Growth +2,306.2% -56.9% +237.9% -0.4%
EBITDA Growth +166.8% -40.4% +105.9% +6.7%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:45pm (21d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2025-08-20 $2.10
2025-04-03 $6.30
2016-05-06 $2.75
2015-01-28 $5.77
2008-09-10 $0.02
2008-06-11 $0.02
2008-03-12 $0.02
2007-12-12 $0.02
2007-09-12 $0.02
2007-06-13 $0.02
2007-03-14 $0.02
2006-12-13 $0.02
2006-09-13 $0.02
2006-06-14 $0.02
2006-03-15 $0.02
2005-12-14 $0.02
2005-09-07 $0.02
2005-06-08 $0.02
2005-03-09 $0.02
2004-12-08 $0.02
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:57
4.2 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +206%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 49%. Ratio 4.2:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($27.36)
Bull — recovery +1% 9.2% $83.64 +206%
Base — stabilizes +1% 8.0% $71.99 +163%
Bear — keeps slipping +0% 6.8% $60.67 +122%
Stress — last quarter repeats -3% 1.5% $13.88 -49%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-28) — growth stays at -2.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue -0.7% · operating income -75.1% · net income -82.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 28, 2026 (revenue -2.8%, operating income -87.1% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 28, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PPC — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:08:24
Verdict Modestly undervalued — fair value ~$33-38 on normalized $800M NI, not $63+; the models are anchored on a margin regime that Q4'25 and Q1'26 already ended.

The most important number in this file is the Q1 2026 print: revenue $4.53B (still +1.6% YoY vs Q1'25's $4.46B) but net income collapsed from $296M to $101M, a margin compression from 6.6% to 2.2%. Q4 2025 already flashed the warning at 1.9% net margin. That's not a "cyclical peak" thesis — that's the cycle rolling over in real time. The trailing four quarters now include two ~2% margin prints and two ~7% prints; run-rate net income is drifting toward $700-900M, not the $1.08B TTM the P/E of 6x is anchored on. On a forward basis, if margins mean-revert to the 4-5% range (which is still above the disastrous 2021-2023 average of ~2-4%), you're looking at $18.5B × 4.5% ≈ $830M NI, or ~$3.50 EPS, putting the forward P/E closer to 8x — cheap, but no longer absurd.

The synthesis verdict of $63-70 fair value is, frankly, a math exercise that hasn't metabolized the two most recent quarters. It's extrapolating from a 2024-mid2025 margin regime that has visibly ended. The Market Forces model ("current margins likely represent a cyclical peak") is the one that read the tape correctly, and the Narrative Economics layer's "fragile durability" call is right for the wrong reason — the fragility isn't covenant risk (debt is literally $924K, essentially zero; D/E of 0.0003 makes the "overleveraged from JBS acquisition" bear story factually wrong), it's earnings fragility. This is a fortress balance sheet ($640M cash, $3.69B equity, negligible debt) attached to a commodity P&L that just halved. Those are two very different investment questions being conflated.

A careful contrarian pushes back on my bearishness thus: chicken cycles are chicken cycles, and PPC has demonstrably survived worse (2021 NI of $31M on $14.8B rev — a 0.2% margin — and the balance sheet still compounded). ROIC of 38% and ROE of 29% on the trailing year are genuinely elite for packaged foods, and even normalized ROIC in the mid-teens justifies well above book value ($16.50/sh equity per share vs $27.36 price = 1.66x P/B, not the "40% of book" the narrative layer claims — that number is wrong). EV/EBITDA of 2.8x is the kind of multiple that gets acquired; JBS owns ~80% and could take the rest private at $40+ and still steal it. The insider signal is noise — nine identical 1,927-share awards on the same day is a board grant, not conviction; the lone S-Sale is trivial. Payout ratio of 1.84 flags that the $1.5B special dividend already returned capital, so don't expect a repeat catalyst.

I land at partial agreement with the synthesis direction but strong dissent on magnitude. Fair value is not $63-70; that requires believing 6-7% net margins are the new normal, and Q4/Q1 say otherwise. On normalized $800M-$900M NI (4.5-5% margins, mid-cycle), a 9-10x multiple gives $7.2-9.0B market cap, or roughly $30-38/share. Add optionality for a JBS take-private bid and the balance sheet cushion, and $35 is a reasonable 12-month anchor — meaningful upside from $27.36 (+28%), but nowhere near +155%. The stock is cheap, not mispriced by a factor of 2.5x. Buy on further weakness below $25, trim into $35-38, and don't confuse a strong balance sheet with a durable earnings stream in a commodity protein business where the last two quarters already showed you what mean reversion looks like.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:08:41
Verdict Undervalued at $27.36, but only moderately — fair value looks closer to $34-$38, not the model’s $60+ peak-cycle extrapolation.

What jumps out first is how clean the balance sheet is relative to how cheap the equity is. A $6.51B market cap business generated $1.08B of net income in 2025, $1.37B of operating cash flow, and $653M of free cash flow after a very real $719M of capex, yet it carries effectively no debt: $924K against $640M of cash. That immediately invalidates a big chunk of the prior narrative stack. This is not a levered restructuring or covenant story; it is a cyclical protein processor with an unusually de-risked capital structure. On trailing numbers, 6.0x earnings, 0.35x sales, and 2.8x EV/EBITDA are plainly low for a company that has delivered two straight years around $1.1B of net income and high-20s ROE. Even if one haircut those profits materially, the starting valuation is hard to call demanding.

The more important question is whether 2024-2025 earnings were peak-cycle aberrations. The quarterly data says yes, but not to the extent the current price seems to imply. Revenue has held in a fairly tight band from $4.37B to $4.76B over the last eight quarters, so this is not a volume-collapse story. What changed is margin: net margin ran 7.2%-7.6% through mid/late 2024 and mid/late 2025, then dropped sharply to 1.9%-2.2% in the last two quarters, with net income falling from $343M-$356M to $88M-$101M. That is a real deterioration, and if you annualize the last two quarters you get roughly $380M-$400M of earnings power, not $1.1B. But even on that depressed run rate, the stock is around 16x earnings for a debt-free staple-adjacent business, not an obvious short; and if normalized earnings are anywhere between the 2023 level of $322M and the 2024-2025 level of $1.08B-$1.09B, the current price is discounting something close to a lower-mid cycle outcome already. My read is that the market is anchoring on the margin collapse correctly, but over-penalizing it because commodity processors are rarely given credit for balance-sheet strength.

The annual progression supports that view. Revenue rose from $17.36B in 2023 to $17.88B in 2024 and $18.50B in 2025, while operating income jumped from $522M to $1.51B to $1.61B. Gross margin moved from a weak 6.5% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2024 and 12.8% in 2025, so 2024 and 2025 were not a one-quarter fluke; they were two years of structurally better profitability versus the prior trough. The issue is that the most recent quarters imply this strength is fading fast. Still, with book value at $3.69B, the stock at 1.77x book is not pricing in a franchise, only a processor. For a company earning a 38% ROIC in the latest annual period and converting more than half of operating cash flow to free cash flow despite heavy capex, I think fair value is above today’s $27.36 even after applying a cyclical discount. I would not underwrite the model-driven $63-$70 fair value range; that looks like mechanically capitalizing peak earnings. But I also do not think a business with this balance sheet and this recent cash generation should trade as if sub-$500M net income is the durable ceiling.

The strongest bear case is straightforward and data-backed: the market may not be cheapening PPC on stale fears, but on a live earnings reset. The last two quarters are ugly enough to suggest 2024-2025 was the peak and 2026 is the new reality. Net income went from $296M in Q1 2025 to just $101M in Q1 2026 on only modestly higher revenue, and from $236M in Q4 2024 to $88M in Q4 2025 on nearly identical revenue, meaning pricing/input/labor dynamics are crushing profitability despite stable demand. If 2% net margins are the new normal on roughly $18B of sales, annual net income is only about $360M, which makes today’s market cap closer to 18x earnings than 6x. Add the fact that this is a capital-intensive commodity business with only 12.8% gross margin even in a good year and a payout ratio over 180%, and a smart skeptic would say the “cheap” multiples are backward-looking traps. I weigh that differently because the absence of leverage dramatically reduces the downside from being wrong on cycle timing, and because the earnings collapse has already shown up in the stock rather than being ignored.

What would change my mind is simple: if the next two quarters stay around 2% net margin despite revenue remaining near $4.5B-$4.8B, I would conclude the 2024-2025 earnings base was indeed transient and that fair value is closer to the low $20s than the mid-$30s. Conversely, if margins recover even partway toward 4%-5% while sales stay flat, that implies annual earnings power of roughly $700M-$900M, and the stock should not remain under 8x that level for long. I also want to see whether free cash flow remains solid after the recent margin compression; if FCF can still hold near $400M-$500M in a weaker year, the current valuation looks too low.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:09:29
Verdict Fairly valued near $27–32 on mid-cycle ~$500M earnings; $63 models ignore the already-visible margin collapse

The numbers tell a story of a completed earnings peak, not a bargain still forming. Pilgrim’s printed $1.08B and $1.09B of net income in 2025 and 2024 on roughly $18B of revenue, with operating margins near 8–9% and free cash flow of $653M after $718M of capex. That run produced a 29% ROE and 38% ROIC and left the balance sheet in fortress condition: $640M cash against essentially zero debt ($924K) and $3.69B of equity. Yet the two most recent quarters show the cycle already turning—net margins collapsed from 7.5% and 7.2% in mid-2025 to 1.9% and 2.2%, with net income falling to $88M and $101M on still-stable revenue of $4.5B. Annualizing the current run-rate puts earnings power near $360–400M, not the $1.1B the trailing multiples embed. At $27.36 the stock trades at 6× trailing earnings and 0.35× sales, but closer to 16–18× the earnings now being delivered. The valuation models that spit out $63–70 fair value are simply capitalizing peak-cycle profits that have already evaporated; the market’s 6× multiple is a deliberate bet on mean reversion that the income statement is confirming in real time.

What the models and the “fallen-angel / overleveraged” narrative both miss is how clean the capital structure actually is. Debt-to-equity of 0.0003 and a net-cash position render the entire refinancing-risk and covenant-stress story obsolete; that narrative is fighting the last war. The real risk is pure commodity cyclicality—feed costs, chicken pricing, and industry supply—not balance-sheet fragility. Revenue CAGR of only 3.2% and decelerating quarterly trends underscore that this is a volume-stable, margin-volatile processor, not a growth compounder. Even so, $650M of FCF in a peak year and a still-positive cash-generation profile at trough margins give the equity a tangible floor that pure P/E screens undervalue. Mid-cycle earnings of $500–700M on this asset base would justify something closer to $30–40, not a double.

The strongest counter-argument is that the margin collapse is temporary and already priced. A smart opponent points to the 2021–2023 trough (net income as low as $31M then $322M), the subsequent operational recovery that produced two straight billion-dollar years, and the fact that gross margins still sit at 12.8% annually—well above the 2023 disaster. If feed costs ease and protein demand holds, a snap-back to 5–6% net margins would make today’s 6× trailing multiple look absurdly cheap and the $63 model value less fantastical. They would also note that EV/EBITDA of 2.8× and EV/sales of 0.32× leave almost no room for permanent impairment once you subtract the net cash. I weigh this less heavily because two consecutive quarters at ~2% margins are not noise; they are the cycle asserting itself, and poultry oversupply plus labor/feed inflation have longer half-lives than optimists admit. The market is not pricing permanent zero profits—it is pricing exactly the $350–500M range that recent quarters imply, which is rational.

I would flip to decisively undervalued if the next two prints show net margins stabilizing above 4.5% with FCF holding above $400M annualized, or if management signals sustained pricing power in value-added mix. I would flip bearish if margins grind toward 1% or negative and working-capital absorption turns FCF negative while revenue stagnates.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 7.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:25:16
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-at-a-fair-price — patient starter, wait for the flush 6/10
Quality business at a modestly cheap price just got hit with the exact print the bear thesis needed — right idea, wrong week to be aggressive.
The cruxWhether Q2's margin collapse (EBITDA to 7.8%, EPS $1.50 to $0.06) is the start of a full mid-cycle reversion or a one-quarter air pocket — that single question determines if $27 is a gift or still expensive.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PPC's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+52
Strong
edge √Σ 136 · risk √Σ 78 · conf 7/10

PPC's trajectory shows a decisive step-change: revenue grew from $14.8B (2021) to $18.5B (2025), but the real story is margin expansion — gross margin went from 9.2% to 12.7% and operating margin from 1.4% to 8.7%, driving net income from $31M to $1.08B. FCF of $653M in 2025 (after a huge $1.53B in 2024) funds the business easily, with $640M cash and only $0.9M net debt — essentially unlevered on a net basis. Altman Z of 3.35 places it in the safe zone. Earnings quality is genuinely clean: OCF/NI of 3.33x, accruals at -3.5% of assets, and Beneish M of -2.43 all indicate cash-backed earnings with no manipulation flags. Diluted share count has actually shrunk at -0.6% CAGR from 244.1M to 238.4M, and SBC is a trivial 0.2% of revenue — per-share value is being protected, not eroded. The insider tape shows only routine awards and one small $303K sale from the CFO; nothing directional. The concerns are structural to the industry: this is a commodity chicken/protein processor where 2021 and 2023 showed how quickly margins compress (6.4% GM, 3% OpM in 2023). The 2024-2025 result may reflect a favorable point in the poultry cycle rather than a permanent reset. Majority ownership by JBS (Batista family names dominate the insider list) is a governance factor worth verifying.

Strengths 4
m78
Cash generation and balance sheet
$653M FCF on $6.5B market cap, $640M cash vs negligible net debt, Altman Z 3.35. Self-funding with meaningful cushion.
m72
Margin expansion sustained two years
OpM went from 1.4% (2021) to 8.7% (2025); GM from 9.2% to 12.7%. Net income jumped from $31M to over $1B and held there.
m65
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 3.33x, accruals -3.5% of assets, Beneish M -2.43. Cash conversion exceeds reported earnings — no aggressive accounting signal.
m55
Share count discipline
Diluted shares down from 244.1M to 238.4M (-0.6% CAGR), SBC only 0.2% of revenue. Per-share value being concentrated.
Concerns 3
m62
Commodity cyclicality demonstrated in-window
2023 OpM collapsed to 3% and GM to 6.4% vs 2022's 10.4% GM. Current 8.7% OpM is likely a cycle peak, not a durable baseline.
m40
Controlled-company governance
Multiple Batista family members on the insider list indicates JBS parent control. Minority holders depend on parent's capital allocation discipline.
m25
Limited pricing power inference
Revenue up only ~25% over four years despite volume and inflation; margins swing with feed/protein cycle rather than brand pricing.
This is a well-run business in a structurally low-quality industry. The financial hygiene is genuinely impressive — clean cash conversion, no dilution, low leverage, and a real earnings step-up. But I've seen this movie: 2023 showed how fast a commodity protein processor can give back margin. The 2024-2025 result is probably close to cycle peak earnings power, not a new normal. The JBS parent relationship is the other quiet issue — governance in controlled companies is only as good as the controller chooses to make it. Solid business, not a fortress; I'd anchor closer to the 75 floor than reach for anything higher.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • JBS ownership percentage and related-party transaction disclosures in the 10-K
  • Customer concentration among top retailers/QSR partners
  • Whether recent margin strength reflects structural mix shift (prepared foods, Europe) or transient poultry cycle
  • Capital return policy: special dividend history and any authorized buyback program
  • Feed cost hedging policy and exposure to grain volatility
  • Any active or pending antitrust/price-fixing litigation reserves
Valuation / Mispricing
-5
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 71 · risk √Σ 76 · conf 6/10
Price $27.36 vs skeptical mid-cycle deserved ~$38 — roughly 30-35% gap, real but not extreme once cycle-peak earnings are haircut. attractive below $24.00

The e2e composite fair value of $63.02 (signal-adjusted $69.70) implies 155% upside from $27.36 — a gap that large in a commodity poultry processor almost always means the methods are extrapolating cycle-peak margins. The EPV floor of $53.26 and the anchored P/E of $74.72 both lean on 2024-2025 earnings power that the quality lens explicitly flags as likely near-peak, not normalized. Haircut those inputs to mid-cycle and deserved value probably lands closer to $35-45, not $60+.

Cheap signals 2
m55
Trades below EPV floor
EPV of $53.26 (the most conservative of the three methods) sits nearly 2x the $27.36 price. Even haircutting EPV 30% for cycle risk leaves deserved value around $37, still comfortably above spot.
m45
Strong balance sheet and cash generation not reflected
Quality lens confirms low leverage, clean earnings, no dilution — the fallen-angel narrative of trading at 40% of book with fortress cash flow is directionally supported.
Rich / priced-in 3
m60
Fair-value methods anchored to peak earnings
Composite $63 and anchored P/E $74.72 use 2024-2025 results the quality lens flags as likely cycle-peak. Poultry margins reverted violently in 2023; assuming current run-rate is normal is exactly the trap in commodity protein.
m35
155% upside is a runaway-method flag
When composite FV is 2.3x price in a low-multiple commodity industry with a controlling shareholder (JBS), the methods are almost certainly overshooting. Discount the headline number heavily.
m30
JBS control overhang caps multiple
Minority holders in JBS-controlled entities historically trade at persistent discounts; some of the 'gap' is a permanent governance haircut, not mispricing.
I think it's modestly cheap, not deeply undervalued. The $63 composite fair value is doing too much work off peak earnings in a commodity cycle — I mentally haircut that to the high-$30s to low-$40s as mid-cycle deserved value, which still leaves 25-40% upside from $27.36. That's real but not a fat pitch. I'd want it under $24 to swing hard, because I want to be paid for the cycle risk and the JBS governance discount that isn't going away.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Normalized mid-cycle EBITDA margin assumption in the DCF — is it using 2024 peak or a blended 5-year average?
  • Chicken commodity price and feed cost curves — how close are we to the next down-leg?
  • JBS-related-party transaction terms and any minority protection language
  • Capital return policy — special dividends have been the historical playbook; is another one likely?
General Sentiment
-59
Headwind
tail √Σ 32 · head √Σ 99 · conf 7/10

The active narrative here is a fragile 'fallen-angel' story of deleveraging and margin recovery, and the Q2 print released in the last 24 hours cuts directly against it: adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 7.8%, EPS collapsed from $1.50 to $0.06, and sales fell year over year. That is the exact data point the bear thesis (commodity cycle, no pricing power, permanent margin compression) needs to gain narrative control, and it landed while the story was already tagged low-durability and low-cult. Expect the headline tape and analyst tone to lean bearish into the next few sessions regardless of book-value math. The macro tape is only mildly supportive (+22, VIX 16), and with a 0.3 beta the broad market barely matters here - this is an idiosyncratic, narrative-driven press. Because poultry is a defensive-adjacent packaged-foods name, PPC is not getting swept by risk-on flows either; sector rotation is not offering a cushion. The dominant force right now is a bad print reinforcing the bear script on a fragile story.

Tailwinds 2
m25
Low beta mutes macro risk
Beta 0.3 in a mildly positive but jittery tape means broad-market swings barely reach this name; if the S&P wobbles further, PPC will not be dragged much with it.
m20
Defensive packaged-foods sector
Consumer Defensive positioning provides a small structural bid from allocators seeking ballast, offering a mild cushion against the idiosyncratic headwind.
Headwinds 3
m72
Margin collapse headline validates bear script
EBITDA margin to 7.8% and EPS from $1.50 to $0.06 is exactly the 'commodity cycle, no pricing power' data point the bear narrative needed. On a fragile-durability story, one bad print can flip the tape.
m55
Fragile fallen-angel narrative, low cult
Narrative durability is fragile and cult coefficient is low, meaning there is no loyal holder base to absorb bad news. Fallen-angel stories re-break easily on disappointing prints.
m40
Analyst/news framing turning skeptical
Headlines are already asking whether the investment case is 'altered' - that framing tends to drag sell-side tone and target revisions lower over the following weeks.
Net pressure leans clearly negative. This is a fragile, low-cult fallen-angel story that just got hit with a print custom-made for the bears - margin compression and an EPS collapse are the precise ammunition the short thesis needed. The low beta and defensive sector tag keep it from being a rout, and the macro tape is not hostile, but idiosyncratic narrative damage dominates here. I read this as a Headwind, not a Strong Headwind, because the sector is defensive and the tape is not risk-off - but do not expect sentiment to be a friend over the next few weeks.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Sell-side target revisions and rating changes in the 1-2 weeks after the Q2 print
  • Whether management commentary on covenants and refinancing reassures or spooks credit watchers
  • Poultry cutout prices and feed cost trend - a firming commodity backdrop could restore the deleveraging story
  • Any activist or value-fund 13F disclosure that could re-anchor the bull narrative
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +33.6% v0.3.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Jul 5, 2026, PPC was $28.76. We expect it to be $38.41 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $32.00. This is an early model (v0.3.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 5, 2026.

Price when predicted$28.76
Our estimate for Jan 2027$38.41+33.6%
Great value below$32.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06