Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$139.86
6-month call
Bull +6.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$149.00
Great value below
$118.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.5% to $149.00
Predicted High
$149.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$135.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:49 am
Bull
PTC trends higher to
$149.00
(+6.5% from $139.86)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisPTC trades near fair value with negative sentiment offsetting decent quality. Expect near-term drift lower on stale AI narrative and revenue miss, then gradual mean-reversion toward DCF/anchored-PE fair value zone as forensic quality and beat history reassert.
Invalidated ifBreak below $118 support or a fresh revenue miss with guidance cut invalidates recovery; sustained move above $155 signals faster convergence.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $139.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $139.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $126.66–$153.06 typical range · internal point $138.20 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag persists, low vol, no near-term catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $145.98 on Aug 17, 2026 = +4.4% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $120.73–$158.99 typical range · internal point $136.50 | — | ±13.7% | 6/10 | Continued drift, negative beta buffers macro noise |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $135.00 | — | -3.5% | 5/10 | Trough near value-attractive zone, buyers step in |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $140.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Earnings print likely, beat history supports rebound |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $144.00 | — | +3.0% | 5/10 | Post-print drift toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $146.50 | — | +4.8% | 4/10 | Quality lens reasserts, DCF gravity pulls higher |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $149.00 | — | +6.5% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE zone, sentiment stale fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $141.86 (+1.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $139.86 |
| Composite fair value | $124.06 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $142.51 |
| DCF fair value | $145.12 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $160.61 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $118.00 |
| Value net score | -33 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.0% 3m 47.4% 6m 40.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.02 3m -0.64 5m -0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -9.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | PTC-20260803-124445-f614 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-PTC-20260803-132318-cb72 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-PTC-20260803-132318-cb72 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-PTC-20260803-132318-cb72 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-PTC-20260803-132318-cb72 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | PTC-20260803-124445-f614 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | PTC-20260803-124445-f614 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $139.86 | $149.00 | +6.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.