Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for PTC Inc. (PTC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +9 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 60 · Value -33 · Sentiment -36 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $144.91 vs $140.61 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

PTC Inc.

PTC NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Application
Boston, MA 02210, United States ptc.com Updated Aug 3, 11:36am
Price
$141.85
Market Cap
$15.8B
Employees
7,642
Beta
0.99
Avg Volume
1,906,843
CEO
Mr. Neil Barua

PTC Inc. is a global software company that provides digital solutions for product design, engineering, manufacturing, and service operations. Its portfolio includes computer-aided design, product lifecycle management, industrial Internet of Things, augmented reality, and service management tools used by manufacturers and industrial organizations to connect product development with real-world operations. PTC Inc. serves industries such as discrete manufacturing, aerospace, automotive, industrial equipment, and high-tech, helping companies manage complex product data, improve collaboration, and streamline workflows across the product lifecycle. The company’s software is used by organizations that build, maintain, and service physical products, making PTC Inc. an important provider of enterprise technology for industrial digital transformation.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 12:52pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$141.31
as of Aug 3, 1:04pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+4.11 (+3.00%)
Day Range
$140.09 – $142.74
52-Week Range
$108.50 – $218.00
50-Day MA
$126.83
200-Day MA
$153.81
Volume
204,432.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 115,505,791.00
Float 114,124,257.00
Free Float 98.8%
High free float — 98.8% of shares trade freely, ~1.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:16pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:16pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:50pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.31
Stock Price: $141.85
EPS (Diluted): 6.08
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.47
Stock Price: $141.85
Total Equity: $3.83B
Shares: 120,777,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
16.61
Market Cap: $15.85B
Total Debt: $1.20B
Cash: $184.42M
EBITDA: $1.08B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$18.0B
Market Cap: $15.85B
Total Debt: $1.20B
Cash: $184.42M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
83.8%
Gross Profit: $2.29B
Revenue: $2.74B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
35.9%
Operating Income: $982.39M
Revenue: $2.74B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
26.8%
Net Income: $734.00M
Revenue: $2.74B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
19.2%
Net Income: $734.00M
Total Equity: $3.83B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
16.2%
Operating Income: $982.39M
Tax Rate: 20.2%
Equity: $3.83B
Total Debt: $1.20B
Cash: $184.42M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.12
Current Assets: $1.38B
Current Liabilities: $1.24B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.31
Short-Term Debt: $25.00M
Long-Term Debt: $1.17B
Total Debt: $1.20B
Total Equity: $3.83B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$22.68
Revenue: $2.74B
Shares: 120,777,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$31.68
Total Equity: $3.83B
Shares: 120,777,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.09
Operating CF: $867.70M
CapEx: -$11.01M
Shares: 120,777,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $141.85
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $734.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:50pm
Compares PTC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:16pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $1.8B $1.9B $2.1B $2.3B $2.7B
Cost of Revenue $371.1M $386.0M $441.0M $444.8M $445.0M
Gross Profit $1.4B $1.5B $1.7B $1.9B $2.3B
Operating Expenses $1.1B $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B $1.3B
Operating Income $380.7M $447.4M $458.5M $588.1M $982.4M
Net Income $476.9M $313.1M $245.5M $376.3M $734.0M
EBITDA $466.0M $535.1M $563.2M $696.2M $1.1B
EPS $4.08 $2.67 $2.07 $3.14 $6.12
EPS (Diluted) $4.03 $2.65 $2.06 $3.12 $6.08
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:44pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $326.5M $272.2M $288.1M $265.8M $184.4M
Total Current Assets $1.1B $1.1B $1.3B $1.3B $1.4B
Total Assets $4.5B $4.7B $6.3B $6.4B $6.6B
Current Liabilities $779.3M $792.3M $1.7B $1.7B $1.2B
Long-Term Debt $1.4B $1.4B $1.7B $1.2B $1.2B
Total Liabilities $2.5B $2.4B $3.6B $3.2B $2.8B
Total Equity $2.0B $2.3B $2.7B $3.2B $3.8B
Retained Earnings $414.7M $727.7M $973.3M $1.3B $2.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:16pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $368.8M $435.3M $610.9M $750.0M $867.7M
Capital Expenditure -$24.7M -$19.5M -$23.8M -$14.4M -$11.0M
Free Cash Flow $344.1M $415.8M $587.0M $735.6M $856.7M
Acquisitions (net) -$718.0M -$282.9M -$828.3M -$93.5M -$6.5M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$30.0M -$125.0M $0 $0 -$300.0M
Net Change in Cash $51.1M -$54.2M $15.9M -$22.3M -$81.5M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:16pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +7.0% +8.5% +9.6% +19.2%
Gross Profit Growth +7.8% +7.0% +11.9% +23.8%
Operating Income Growth +17.5% +2.5% +28.3% +67.1%
Net Income Growth -34.4% -21.6% +53.3% +95.0%
EBITDA Growth +14.8% +5.3% +23.6% +55.8%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:58
0.2 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +12%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 55%. Ratio 0.2:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($140.61)
Bull — recovery +23% 35.0% $157.45 +12%
Base — stabilizes +15% 35.0% $126.06 -10%
Bear — keeps slipping +8% 35.0% $99.98 -29%
Stress — last quarter repeats -7% 35.0% $62.65 -55%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-30) — growth stays at -6.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.85). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026, Dec 2025 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +11.6% · operating income +24.5% · net income +126.8% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2026 (revenue -6.8%, operating income -20.6% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PTC — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 13:11:07
Verdict Fairly valued near $142 but risk-skewed downward — normalized EPS suggests fair value closer to $115-125; the 76% Q1 2026 net margin is a one-off flattering the trailing multiples. No edge long here; wait for $120 or evidence of manufacturing capex inflection.

The raw numbers first: PTC printed $2.74B FY25 revenue with $735M net income and $857M FCF — that's a 31% FCF margin on a 14% revenue CAGR, which is genuinely high-quality mature software economics. But the quarterly tape has a problem the synthesis glosses over. The March 2026 quarter shows $774M revenue with $591M net income — a 76% net margin that is not a normal operating result. FY25 net margin was 27%; the trailing quarters ran 22-39%. A 76% margin quarter almost certainly reflects a one-time tax benefit, deferred tax asset release, divestiture gain, or accounting adjustment. Strip that out and normalized earnings look far less impressive than the "95% YoY earnings growth" momentum tag suggests. The models are anchoring on a flattered TTM.

The 14.3% revenue CAGR is real but the quarterly cadence is lumpy in a way consistent with ratable subscription accounting rather than true acceleration — $565M → $636M → $644M → $894M → $686M → $774M zigzags because bookings, not revenue, drive the underlying business. FY24 to FY25 revenue growth was 19% ($2.30B → $2.74B), which is genuinely good for a mature PLM vendor, but this includes the ServiceMax contribution and pricing actions, not just organic seat growth. At 6.25x sales and 16.6x EV/EBITDA on peak-cycle margins, the stock is priced for continued execution with essentially no cushion. Debt is manageable ($1.2B vs $857M FCF) but the current ratio of 1.12 and only $184M cash means there's no war chest for opportunistic M&A without leveraging up.

I largely agree with the synthesis that this is fairly valued, but I dissent on the direction of the risk. The synthesis lands at $142.5 fair value vs $141.8 price — essentially a coin flip labeled "slight upside." The Thesis Evaluation is more honest: -6 score, with the killer bear point that "IoT growth story has been two years away since 2016." That's true — ThingWorx and Vuforia have been the narrative crutch for a decade without ever becoming material P&L contributors. Meanwhile the market forces call correctly flags "cyclical risk underappreciated": PTC's customers are discrete manufacturers (auto, aerospace, industrial machinery), all of whom are in various states of capex hesitation. Insider activity is quietly negative — every non-award transaction is a sale or option exercise, no open-market buying, which is neutral-to-mildly-bearish for a stock that's already down 35% from highs.

The contrarian case a careful skeptic would push: at 23x earnings and 6x sales, PTC is being valued like Autodesk or Ansys despite structurally slower organic growth and a more concentrated customer base in cyclical end markets. Historical PE was 15-18x — a reversion to 18x on normalized ~$5.50 EPS (backing out the Q1 anomaly) gets you to ~$100, not $142. The bull needs both (a) ARR growth sustaining low-teens and (b) multiple holding at premium levels. Both can crack simultaneously in a manufacturing downturn. Conversely, the bull's real argument isn't IoT — it's that Creo/Windchill are so embedded that revenue is closer to a utility, and utilities deserve premium multiples in a low-rate environment. That's defensible but rate-regime dependent. My read: fairly valued at $142 giving credit to the durability, but the risk skew is to the downside because the momentum stats are flattered by a one-time earnings item and the sector is cyclically exposed. I'd want $115-120 for a real starter position, and I'd fade any rally above $155 absent evidence that manufacturing capex is turning. The models are directionally right that this isn't a screaming opportunity in either direction, but they're understating that "fair value" here is on top-of-cycle margins that could compress 300-500bps in a downturn.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 13:11:25
Verdict Undervalued at $142 — the market is treating PTC like a fully matured industrial software utility, but the combination of high-teens revenue growth and ~$857M FCF supports fair value closer to $165.

PTC looks like a very good business that is now priced like a merely good stock. What jumps out first is the operating model: revenue has scaled from $1.81 billion in 2021 to $2.74 billion in 2025, a 51% increase in four years, while operating income rose from $380.7 million to $982.4 million and net income from $476.9 million to $734.0 million. The annual gross margin is 83.8% and operating margin 35.9%, which is elite for a company tied to industrial end markets rather than pure horizontal SaaS. Just as important, the cash conversion is real: on $734.0 million of net income, PTC produced $867.7 million of operating cash flow and $856.7 million of free cash flow, with only $11.0 million of capex. That is a 31% FCF margin on 2025 revenue, and at a $15.85 billion market cap the stock trades around 18.5x trailing FCF. For a sticky software franchise with ROIC of 16.2%, modest leverage, and evident margin expansion, that is not expensive.

The quarterlies tell a stronger story than the “mature earner” label suggests, but also a messier one than the simple momentum metrics imply. Revenue stepped from $518.6 million in June 2024 to $626.5 million in September, dipped seasonally and then climbed to $636.4 million and $643.9 million, before jumping to $893.8 million in September 2025 and then $685.8 million and $774.3 million. That latest quarter is up 21.7% year over year against $636.4 million, and the prior quarter was up 21.4% against $565.1 million. This is not a flat legacy vendor. But the profit line is clearly distorted by periodic items: a 76.3% net margin in March 2026 and 38.9% in September 2025 are not normal run-rate economics. So I do not buy the superficial “95% earnings growth” excitement. The right read is that revenue growth has reaccelerated into the high teens to low 20s while the normalized earnings base is already very strong. On that basis, the stock around 6.3x sales and 16.6x EV/EBITDA feels more reasonable than demanding, particularly because this is software with unusually durable customer entrenchment.

The balance sheet does not worry me. Net debt is roughly $1.0 billion after backing out $184.4 million of cash against $1.20 billion of debt, which is light relative to nearly $857 million of annual FCF. Debt to equity at 0.31 is conservative, and the current ratio of 1.12 is adequate for a software company with low capital intensity and recurring collections. The market appears to be anchoring on “transition done, upside limited,” but the raw numbers suggest the company may still be in the phase where margin structure has improved faster than valuation has adjusted. If PTC can sustain even low-teens revenue growth rather than slipping back to mid-single digits, an 18-19x FCF multiple is too low for an 80%+ gross margin franchise. My base case is not multiple expansion to a flashy SaaS level; it is simply that the current multiple already bakes in more maturity than the recent revenue trajectory justifies.

The best bear case is that investors are getting tricked by accounting-noisy profit growth and a favorable patch in demand. The annual P/E of 23.3x is not cheap if the true normalized growth rate is closer to GDP-plus than to the recent 19-22% quarterly pace. Quarterly revenue is lumpy, the latest two standout quarters may be helped by timing and enterprise deal concentration, and software tied to manufacturing programs is still exposed to macro hesitation. The market is also right to distrust the perpetual optionality story around IoT and AR; if those adjacencies never become material, PTC is “just” a high-quality PLM/CAD/industrial software incumbent. In that framing, 6.6x EV/revenue and 4.5x book are not screaming bargains, especially after margins have already climbed this far. Insider activity is mildly unhelpful too: recent transactions skew to small sales rather than open-market buying, which does not confirm a dislocation.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters show revenue dropping back toward mid-single-digit growth, with annualized FCF failing to clear roughly $900 million despite these elevated margins, then this is a fair-value compounder and not an opportunity. I would also turn more cautious if the March 2026 profit spike proves to be masking weak underlying demand, visible through a reversal from $774.3 million revenue toward the mid-$600 millions without a clear seasonality explanation. Conversely, if PTC can hold quarterly revenue above $700 million outside the seasonal high point and convert that into a sustainable 30%+ FCF margin, then fair value is above the current price and likely into the $160-$170 range.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 13:12:14
Verdict Quality industrial-software compounder fully priced at $142; raw FV ~$124 and normalized ~23-25x PE leave asymmetric downside if growth cools

PTC’s numbers describe a completed SaaS conversion that has already delivered the margin prize. Annual revenue climbed from $1.81B in FY2021 to $2.74B in FY2025 while operating income more than doubled to $982M and free cash flow reached $857M—an exceptional 31% FCF margin on virtually zero capex. Gross margin sits at 84% and operating margin at 36%, levels that look permanent rather than transitional. Recent quarterly run-rates ($636–$774M) confirm mid-teens-to-20% top-line growth is still intact, and the balance sheet is manageable at 0.31 debt-to-equity. The story the cash flows tell is therefore straightforward: a sticky industrial PLM/CAD franchise that has successfully shifted to recurring revenue and now prints high-quality cash.

What the headline multiples obscure is earnings quality and the true starting point for valuation. The March 2026 quarter printed a 76% net margin and $591M of net income—clearly a discrete tax or one-time item—while the September 2025 quarter also carried an elevated 39% margin. Strip those out and normalized annual earnings power sits closer to $600–650M, pushing the effective multiple above the stated 23x. More telling, the unadjusted composite fair value sits at $124, a full 12% below the current $142 print; only after “signal adjustment” does the model crawl back to parity. EV/FCF near 20x and EV/Revenue of 6.6x already embed continued 15%+ growth and further margin expansion that the decelerating quarterly revenue trend and “below sector benchmarks” flag do not support. FCF yield of roughly 5.4% is respectable but not cheap insurance against industrial-software cyclicality.

The strongest counter-argument is simply the durability of the installed base and the cash engine itself. Switching costs in Windchill and Creo remain high, ARR visibility is excellent, and ROIC of 16% with rising returns on a modest capital base is exactly what compounders are supposed to look like. A bull can fairly claim that 20x FCF for a 15% grower with 84% gross margins is no worse than fair, that net debt is easily serviceable out of $850M+ annual FCF, and that any IoT/AR optionality is free. Those points keep me from a more aggressive short stance; they do not, however, erase the fact that the raw DCF already says $124 and that the market is paying peak-cycle multiples for mid-cycle growth.

I would flip constructive on two concrete data points: sequential acceleration in subscription billings/ARR back above 20% for two consecutive quarters, or a clean FY2026 guide that shows operating margin holding above 35% while revenue clears $3.2B without one-time items. Either would justify the current multiple; neither is in the tape today.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 5.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +3.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -3.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Second round ran — the seats disagreed beyond the band (Claude: fairly_valued · GPT: undervalued · Grok: overvalued); 1 seat changed direction after reading the others.
Claude — Second Response · fairly valued held

VERDICT: Fairly valued at $142 with downside skew — normalized FV $120-130; add at $120, trim above $155, no edge in between

My colleagues and I landed in the same neighborhood by different routes, and the disagreement is really about which direction the risk skews from $142. Grok independently flagged the exact issue I anchored on — the March 2026 76% net margin as a one-time item and the unadjusted DCF at ~$124 — which reinforces rather than challenges my read. GPT's bull case is the one I need to engage with seriously, and the strongest piece of it is the revenue trajectory: $565M → $636M → $644M → $894M → $686M → $774M, with the two most recent non-peak quarters up 21%+ YoY. That is not a mid-single-digit legacy vendor, and I underweighted it in my first pass.

But GPT's own numbers cut against his conclusion. He arrives at $160-170 fair value by applying an 18-19x multiple to ~$857M FCF and assuming low-teens growth persists — yet he concedes the profit line is "clearly distorted by periodic items" and that if growth reverts to mid-single-digits this is a fair-value compounder, not an opportunity. That is precisely the asymmetry I'm pricing: you need both sustained high-teens growth AND clean normalized FCF above $850M to justify $165, and the tape gives us one quarter of each with accounting noise on top. The 31% FCF margin is real, but $11M capex on $2.74B revenue is suspiciously low for a company with any hardware/AR ambitions and suggests either capex is understated via capitalized-cloud accounting or it's genuinely a pure software annuity (which supports GPT) — I can't tell from the briefing, and that uncertainty is itself bearish for paying up.

I'm holding my verdict but tightening it. GPT moved me on growth durability enough that I won't call this overvalued, but the normalized earnings problem he acknowledges and Grok independently corroborates keeps me from crossing to undervalued. Fair value with downside skew, starter at $120, fade above $155.

GPT — Second Response · fairly valued changed direction

VERDICT: Roughly fairly valued at $142; quality and cash flow support the stock, but normalized earnings and cyclical exposure cap fair value around $130-$145 unless growth proves sustainably high-teens.

Claude and Grok moved me on one key point: I underweighted how much the trailing earnings and even the “cheapness” framing are flattered by the March 2026 anomaly. I had already noted the 76% net margin was non-recurring, but they are right that once you normalize earnings power, the apparent 23x P/E is less relevant and the market is really paying more like a premium multiple for a mature but excellent industrial software franchise. I’m not persuaded by the harsher $100-type bear case, though. That leans too hard on historical P/E ranges without giving enough credit to the post-transition model: 84% gross margin, 36% operating margin, and $857M of FCF on $2.74B of revenue are not the economics of the old PTC. Likewise, I don’t think the quarterly revenue pattern alone proves the recent growth is illusory; FY24 to FY25 at 19% is too strong to dismiss as mere accounting cadence.

What failed to move me is the idea that the stock is plainly overvalued today. On cash, the case is still sturdier than the normalized-EPS bears allow: at roughly 18.5x trailing FCF and about a 5%+ FCF yield, PTC is not priced like a speculative software name, and net debt near $1B is very manageable against that cash generation. But my original “undervalued to $165” call was too aggressive because it gave too much benefit of the doubt to sustaining high-teens growth and too little penalty for cyclical manufacturing exposure, ServiceMax/inorganic contribution, and the long-running failure of IoT/AR optionality to matter. So I’m revising from undervalued to roughly fair value, with a modestly negative skew if organic growth slips back toward low teens. I’d need either a cleaner read on ARR/billings durability or a better entry around the low-$120s to get constructive again.

Grok — Second Response · overvalued held

VERDICT: Fully priced at $142 with normalized FV $115-125; asymmetric downside if growth cools

Claude’s normalization math and historical-PE anchor sharpened my original caution rather than softened it. Backing out the 76% March quarter leaves true earnings power nearer $5.50–6.00, and a reversion even to the upper end of PTC’s own 15–18x history lands closer to $100–110 than my prior $124 raw DCF; the cyclical manufacturing exposure and quiet insider selling only reinforce that the risk skew is downward, not symmetric. GPT’s 18.5x FCF and $165 target correctly flag the high-teens quarterly growth and 31% cash conversion, yet those same numbers already sit inside the current 6.6x sales / ~20x EV/FCF print; the lumpy cadence and ServiceMax contribution make sustained 15%+ organic growth the bull case, not the base case I am willing to underwrite at $142.

Nothing in either reading overturns the core observation that the SaaS-margin prize has already been captured and is now fully reflected. I therefore hold the view that the stock is fully priced with asymmetric downside if industrial capex stalls, and I still require either clear ARR re-acceleration above 20% or a clean $3.2 B / 35%+ margin guide before turning constructive.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:30:32
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality name - wait for a dip 7/10
Genuine industrial-software compounder, but quality (60) is already in the tape at $140.61 and a mild sentiment headwind (-36) argues for patience, not chasing.
The cruxWhether Q4 ARR conversion and FCF inflection continue - if they do, $140 holds and reprices higher; if they wobble, the composite FV near $124 becomes the gravity.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PTC's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+60
Strong
edge √Σ 118 · risk √Σ 48 · conf 8/10

PTC is a mature enterprise-software earner showing genuine operating leverage: revenue grew from $1.81B (2021) to $2.74B (2025), a ~11% CAGR, while gross margin expanded from 79.5% to 83.8% and operating margin stepped from 21.1% to 35.9%. Net income more than doubled in the last year to $734M, and FCF has climbed every single year from $344M to $857M - a 2.5x lift on ~1.5x revenue. Earnings quality checks out: OCF/NI 1.57x, accruals -2.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.37, Altman Z 4.78. Cash conversion is real, not accounting-driven.

Strengths 3
m78
Operating leverage is showing up
Op margin expanded from 21.1% (2021) to 35.9% (2025) on 83.8% gross margins, with FCF up 2.5x to $857M - classic subscription-software leverage arriving.
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.57x, accruals -2.8% of assets, Beneish -2.37, Altman Z 4.78. Every mechanical check is benign; reported profits are backed by cash.
m55
Dilution discipline for a software co
Diluted share CAGR 0.5% (118.4M to 120.8M over four years); SBC is 7.9% of revenue but buybacks offset 45.6% of it, so per-share value is not being eroded.
Concerns 2
m45
Net debt of ~$1.01B
Liquid cash only $184M against negative net cash; cash/mktcap 1.2%. With $857M FCF this is easily serviceable, but the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion.
m18
Insiders only selling
5 sells ($686K) vs 0 open-market buys in trailing 12 months. Small dollar amounts, mostly post-vest housekeeping, but no directional conviction from management.
This looks like a genuine software compounder that has crossed into the operating-leverage phase - margins and FCF are both inflecting up while share count is flat. The earnings-quality diagnostics are clean enough that I take the reported profitability at face value. My one real reservation is the ~$1B net debt against thin liquid cash; FCF covers it many times over, but it means there is no true fortress cushion, which is what keeps this in the Strong bucket rather than pushing toward the 87+ tier. Insider tape is a non-signal - all housekeeping. Overall a well-run business, not a generational one.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Composition and maturity ladder of the debt behind the $1.01B net-debt figure
  • ARR/subscription mix and net retention to confirm the 2025 margin step-change is structural not one-off
  • Whether the 2025 net-income jump to $734M includes any tax or one-time benefits (effective tax rate, discrete items)
  • Customer concentration in industrial/CAD/PLM end markets
  • Integration status and residual costs from ServiceMax acquisition (likely source of net debt)
Valuation / Mispricing
-33
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 40 · risk √Σ 74 · conf 7/10
Price $140.61 vs deserved ~$150 (DCF/anchored-PE midpoint) - roughly 6% discount, inside the noise band. attractive below $118.00

The composite fair value of $124.06 sits ~12% below the $140.61 price, while the signal-adjusted FV of $142.51 lands within 1% of it. The DCF ($145.12) and anchored P/E ($160.61) bracket the price on the upside; the EPV floor of $45.40 is a runaway low-side print that assumes no growth and should be treated as a stress floor, not a serious deserved-value read. Averaging the two forward-looking methods gives roughly $150-155 of deserved value against $140.61 - a mid-single-digit discount, i.e. noise, not a margin of safety. Earnings quality is high (score 3), so no haircut is warranted, and the Strong quality grade (60) supports paying a full multiple rather than demanding one. But quality is already in the tape: at ~$15.8B market cap on a business the market widely recognizes as a sticky industrial-software compounder, the easy rerating is behind it. To underwrite meaningful upside from here you need continued FCF inflection and multiple maintenance - plausible, but that is the base case, not a mispricing. Nothing here screams cheap; nothing screams rich either. This is the textbook 'good company, fair price' setup.

Cheap signals 2
m35
DCF and anchored-PE modestly above price
DCF $145.12 and anchored-PE $160.61 average ~$153, ~9% above $140.61 - directionally supportive but not a margin of safety.
m20
No earnings-quality haircut needed
High earnings quality (score 3) means reported FCF and margins can be taken at face value - the deserved multiple does not need to be marked down.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
Signal-adjusted FV essentially equals price
Signal-adj FV $142.51 vs price $140.61 is a ~1% gap. The market has already priced the compounder narrative.
m40
Composite FV below price
Composite $124.06 sits ~12% below the tape, dragged by the EPV floor but still a warning that non-growth methods do not justify today's multiple.
m30
Quality already in the price
A Strong (60) business at ~$15.8B cap on inflecting FCF is the consensus view; the rerating from 'legacy vendor' to 'compounder' has largely happened.
Fairly valued, and I am comfortable calling it that. Price and signal-adjusted fair value are within a percent of each other, and even the more generous DCF/anchored-PE prints leave only a high-single-digit cushion - that is not a margin of safety, that is a rounding error. The business is genuinely good and the earnings are clean, but the market knows that. I would want PTC closer to $118 (roughly 20% below deserved, and a level where the composite FV becomes a floor rather than a warning) before it is interesting on valuation alone. Owning it here is fine if you already do; buying it here is paying retail for quality.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • ARR and constant-currency ARR growth trajectory in the next print - the compounder thesis lives or dies here
  • FCF conversion and any guidance revisions to full-year FCF
  • Net debt paydown pace against the ~$1B balance - deleveraging supports deserved value
  • Any softening in discrete-manufacturing end-markets that would compress the growth assumption in the DCF
General Sentiment
-36
Headwind
tail √Σ 47 · head √Σ 85 · conf 6/10

PTC just printed a 6.8% YoY revenue decline in Q2, and while guidance was nudged up and AI initiatives got airtime, the tape treats this as a mature industrial-software compounder with a minimal-intensity narrative and low cult factor. There is no euphoric story pulling the stock up and no acute collapse pulling it down; the market has essentially accepted PTC as fairly valued at DCF, meaning sentiment adds almost nothing to the bid. News flow is mixed-to-cautious, with headlines framing the print as a 'sharp pullback', 'valuation reset', and 'execution in focus' - a tone that keeps a lid on multiple expansion. The macro tape is only mildly supportive (regime score +22) but rates at 4.68% and a market PE near 27 create a low-grade headwind for software names that are not part of the AI-winner cohort. With beta near 1.0, PTC absorbs the tape roughly one-for-one, and as a discrete-manufacturing-exposed software vendor it also carries cyclical industrial sensitivity that the narrative does not offset. Analyst framing has pivoted to Q4 ARR conversion as the make-or-break - a wait-and-see posture that suppresses near-term buying pressure. Net: not a crisis, but a persistent low-grade press to the downside from a fading revenue line, an unexciting AI story, and a tape that is rewarding louder narratives elsewhere.

Tailwinds 3
m35
Guidance raise softens the miss
Next-quarter guide above expectations plus buybacks give the bulls something to hold; prevents the sentiment from tipping into outright capitulation.
m25
Mildly constructive macro regime
Neutral-to-positive tape (+22, VIX 16) is a low-drama backdrop; beta near 1 means PTC is not being amplified in either direction by the market itself.
m20
Durable steady-compounder framing
The story is unexciting but sticky - embedded CAD/PLM/IoT positioning keeps the base of holders patient, muting downside pressure from momentum sellers.
Headwinds 4
m55
Revenue miss anchors the tape
Q2 sales -6.8% YoY missed the print; even with a guide-up, the top-line contraction dominates headlines and gives bears the megaphone in the near term.
m45
Minimal-intensity narrative in an AI tape
PTC's AI-lifecycle story is credible but low-voltage; in a market that pays up for loud AI winners, a boring compounder with a soft print gets passed over.
m35
Analyst tone: execution watch
Coverage has coalesced around 'Q4 ARR conversion is the test' and 'margin pressure' - a defensive framing that discourages fresh accumulation until proof arrives.
m30
Rates and market PE press on software multiples
10y at 4.68% and market PE near 27 keep a modest de-rating bias on non-AI-hero software names; PTC has no narrative shield to absorb it.
This is a low-drama headwind, not a crisis. PTC just missed on revenue and the story it tells - steady industrial-software compounder with some AI seasoning - is not the story the tape is rewarding right now. The macro is only mildly supportive and PTC has beta near 1 with no narrative amplifier, so it absorbs the ambient rate/valuation pressure without anything to fight back with. Analyst framing has shifted to 'prove it in Q4', which is a sentiment ceiling. Net: a persistent mild press to the downside until either Q4 ARR delivers or the AI narrative finds a way to bolt onto this name more convincingly.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Q4 ARR conversion print - the analyst-designated make-or-break for the tape
  • Whether AI-lifecycle pilots convert to bookings language on the next call (would raise narrative intensity)
  • Sector rotation: if industrial software catches an AI-adjacent bid (like ADSK/ANSYS), PTC likely follows
  • Any downward revisions to consensus revenue that would confirm the miss was not one-off
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +6.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, PTC was $139.86. We expect it to be $149.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $118.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$139.86
Our estimate for Feb 2027$149.00+6.5%
Great value below$118.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for PTC. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06