Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$61.48
6-month call
Bull +13.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$69.50
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.1% to $69.50
Predicted High
$69.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$62.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 12:21 pm
Bull
PYPL trends higher to
$69.50
(+13.1% from $61.48)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisActive Stripe/Advent takeout bid puts a floor under PYPL while sentiment and value both point higher; expect gradual drift toward fair value with deal-driven pops, though bid uncertainty caps upside near composite FV over six months.
Invalidated ifTakeout bid formally withdrawn or price breaks below $55 on heavy volume, invalidating the floor thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $61.48 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $61.48 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $56.36–$66.60 typical range · internal point $62.90 | — | ±8.3% | 7/10 | Bid speculation and risk-on regime support near-term drift up |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $54.06–$68.90 typical range · internal point $64.20 | — | ±12.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind and momentum continuation into September |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $66.00 | — | +7.4% | 6/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value engages |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $67.50 | — | +9.8% | 5/10 | Approaches composite FV; deal headlines drive volatility |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $68.75 | — | +11.8% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning; buyers rotate into fallen-angel story |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $67.80 | — | +10.3% | 4/10 | Deal uncertainty and profit-taking cap further upside |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $69.50 | — | +13.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted FV as clarity improves |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $66.99 (+9.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $61.48 |
| Composite fair value | $67.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $81.29 |
| DCF fair value | $76.23 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | +19 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +41 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.8% 3m 41.8% 6m 39.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.13 3m 0.78 5m 0.73 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 48.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 19d behind | PYPL-20260730-170255-6d48 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 6d behind | ext-PYPL-20260812-113742-6d64 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PYPL-20260819-092201-aa6c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PYPL-20260819-092201-aa6c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PYPL-20260819-092201-aa6c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | PYPL-20260819-002039-9437 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | PYPL-20260819-002039-9437 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.