Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$151.60
6-month call
Bear -10.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$136.50
Great value below
$122.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.0% to $136.50
Predicted High
$149.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$133.00
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:07 am
Bear
QCOM trends lower to
$136.50
(-10.0% from $151.60)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisSentiment is negative and value anchors sit well below spot, so QCOM should drift lower toward the composite fair value zone over the next few months, with high beta amplifying any tape weakness before stabilizing near DCF as buyers step in.
Invalidated ifA reclaim of $165 on volume or a data-center design win headline would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $151.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $151.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $126.36–$176.84 typical range · internal point $149.20 | — | ±16.7% | 6/10 | jittery tape, fresh downgrades weigh near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $164.79 on Aug 13, 2026 = +8.7% vs the call (predicted -1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 10.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $115.02–$188.18 typical range · internal point $146.50 | — | ±24.1% | 6/10 | sentiment overhang, no catalyst to lift shares |
| What actually happened: closed $164.19 on Aug 28, 2026 = +8.3% vs the call (predicted -3.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±24.1%: inside the band · S&P +3.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $142.00 | — | -6.3% | 5/10 | drift toward DCF as data-center narrative fades |
| What actually happened: closed $184.04 on Sep 30, 2026 = +21.4% vs the call (predicted -6.3%) · direction MISS (called down, was up) · off by 27.7 pp · accuracy 3/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $138.50 | — | -8.6% | 5/10 | value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $135.00 | — | -10.9% | 4/10 | approaches deserved value, high beta amplifies weakness |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $133.00 | — | -12.3% | 4/10 | stabilizes near fair value, tax-loss selling risk |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $136.50 | — | -10.0% | 3/10 | modest rebound from oversold near composite anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $145.17 (-4.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $151.60 |
| Composite fair value | $127.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $121.99 |
| DCF fair value | $139.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $169.30 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $122.00 |
| Value net score | -54 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +0 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.6% 3m 83.6% 6m 64.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.26 3m 3.18 5m 2.11 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | QCOM-20260730-211427-1faa |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-QCOM-20260730-221704-015e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-QCOM-20260730-221704-015e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-QCOM-20260730-221704-015e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-QCOM-20260730-221704-015e |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | QCOM-20260730-215444-cc12 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | QCOM-20260730-215444-cc12 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $151.60 | $136.50 | -10.0% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 26, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $204.90 | $180.60 | -11.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.