Business Description
QUALCOMM Incorporated is a company dedicated to developing and bringing to market fundamental technologies crucial for the global wireless communication industry. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL), and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT division specializes in creating and supplying integrated circuits and system software, leveraging 3G, 4G, 5G, and other advanced wireless technologies. These components are essential for a range of products, including those used for wireless voice and data communication, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning. The QTL segment generates revenue by licensing its extensive intellectual property portfolio, which encompasses various patent rights vital for the manufacture and sale of wireless devices, particularly those adhering to standards like CDMA2000, WCDMA, LTE, and OFDMA-based 5G. Through its QSI segment, Qualcomm invests in early-stage companies across diverse sectors such as 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer electronics, enterprise solutions, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, aiming to support the introduction of new products and services for both existing and emerging communication applications. Furthermore, the company provides development services and related products to United States government agencies and their contractors. Founded in 1985, QUALCOMM Incorporated maintains its headquarters in San Diego, California.
Business History
Generated: Jun 26, 2026 3:16amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:12am (1d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.06
Total Equity: $21.21B
Shares: 1,105,000,000
Total Debt: $15.64B
Cash: $7.84B
EBITDA: $14.93B
Total Debt: $15.64B
Cash: $7.84B
Revenue: $44.28B
Revenue: $44.28B
Revenue: $44.28B
Total Equity: $21.21B
Tax Rate: 56.2%
Equity: $21.21B
Total Debt: $15.64B
Cash: $7.84B
Current Liabilities: $9.14B
Long-Term Debt: $15.54B
Total Debt: $15.64B
Total Equity: $21.21B
Shares: 1,105,000,000
Shares: 1,105,000,000
CapEx: -$1.19B
Shares: 1,105,000,000
Stock Price: $204.90
Net Income: $5.54B
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Qualcomm is a mature, cash-generative semiconductor and IP-licensing business throwing off $12.82B FCF on $44.28B revenue in 2025, with gross margins steady in a 55-58% band and operating margins in the high 20s. Earnings integrity is clean: OCF/NI of 1.43x, accruals of -4.9% of assets, Beneish M of -3.26, and an Altman Z of 7.15 all point to real economics rather than accounting flattery. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly: diluted shares fell from 1.15B to 1.11B over five years, and buybacks run nearly 2x SBC, so the 6.3% SBC/revenue is being more than soaked up.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- What drove the 2025 net income decline to $5.54B despite revenue and FCF strength - look for impairments, tax true-ups, or legal charges in the 10-K.
- Customer concentration disclosure (Apple, Samsung, Chinese OEMs) and status/expiry of key license agreements.
- Apple modem in-housing timeline and current QCT revenue exposure to Apple.
- Automotive and IoT segment growth rates and margins versus handset to gauge diversification progress.
- Litigation reserves and any ongoing antitrust or licensing disputes.
- Composition of $12.48B liquid cash vs gross debt schedule and maturities.
The e2e composite fair value of $62.47 (EPV-floor) implies -69% downside, which is almost certainly a method artifact: an EPV floor on a cyclical semi running a trough-ish 2025 will systematically understate a business throwing off $12.8B of FCF with licensing economics and an Android/AI-on-device option. I won't anchor on $63. On more reasonable inputs - ~$10-11 of normalized EPS, a 17-19x multiple appropriate for a cyclical-but-cash-generative chip franchise with quality score 46 - deserved value lands roughly $180-$220. At $205 the market is paying for the mature licensing cash cow plus a modest sliver of AI-phone/auto optionality, which is reasonable, not heroic. What's priced in: low-single-digit handset growth, auto/IoT scaling, continued buybacks shrinking the count, and the Apple modem relationship eventually tapering without a cliff. That is the consensus base case and it appears largely in the price. There is no obvious gap to exploit - quality is strong but you're paying full freight for it, and the earnings-quality is clean so no haircut is warranted. Bottom line: not rich enough to short the narrative, not cheap enough to underwrite. Fairly valued with cyclical risk skewing the asymmetry slightly to the downside.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Apple internal modem transition timeline and revenue contribution glide path
- Automotive segment run-rate and design-win backlog conversion
- Licensing (QTL) renewal cadence with Chinese OEMs and royalty rate stability
- Normalized through-cycle operating margin vs current quarter
The non-fundamental pressure on QCOM right now is decisively positive and idiosyncratic. Investor Day just rewrote the story from 'mature smartphone licensing cash cow' to 'AI data-center growth engine' with Meta and Microsoft as named customers and a 15B revenue target. That is the exact narrative upgrade the bull case needed, and the tape responded with a 4%+ pop on the day plus a wave of supportive coverage ('next big growth engine', 'multibillion-dollar data center plan'). Analyst tone is backward-looking and lukewarm (Hold, 34 holds vs 30 buys, target only 216), but 11 revisions this month at an average 227 show the sell side is chasing - a classic bullish divergence between stale consensus and a live, strengthening narrative. Macro is a mild offset, not a killer. The tape is neutral with VIX 18.9 and S&P only 3.3% off highs; the bigger risk is the overnight Asia headline about traders locking in AI gains, which at beta 1.6 means QCOM will feel any AI-cohort profit-taking harder than the index. But QCOM is now early in its AI re-rating, not late, so it screens as a rotation beneficiary within the AI trade rather than a crowded long. Net: narrative momentum and news flow dominate; macro is a minor headwind that only matters for sizing, not direction.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether the Asia AI profit-taking spreads into US AI semis in the next 1-2 sessions
- Speed and magnitude of analyst upgrades to Buy following Investor Day
- Any follow-on hyperscaler customer announcements that harden the 15B target
- NVDA tape action as a proxy for AI-cohort sentiment
- Whether smartphone unit commentary stays neutral or deteriorates and steals the spotlight
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:16am (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.6B | $44.2B | $35.8B | $39.0B | $44.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | $14.3B | $18.6B | $15.9B | $17.1B | $19.7B |
| Gross Profit | $19.3B | $25.6B | $20.0B | $21.9B | $24.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $9.5B | $9.7B | $12.2B | $11.8B | $12.2B |
| Operating Income | $9.8B | $15.9B | $7.8B | $10.1B | $12.4B |
| Net Income | $9.0B | $12.9B | $7.2B | $10.1B | $5.5B |
| EBITDA | $12.4B | $17.3B | $9.9B | $12.7B | $14.9B |
| EPS | $8.00 | $11.52 | $6.47 | $9.09 | $5.06 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:12am (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $7.1B | $2.8B | $8.5B | $7.8B | $7.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $20.1B | $20.7B | $22.5B | $25.2B | $25.8B |
| Total Assets | $41.2B | $49.0B | $51.0B | $55.2B | $50.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $12.0B | $11.9B | $9.6B | $10.5B | $9.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $13.7B | $13.5B | $14.5B | $13.3B | $15.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $31.3B | $31.0B | $29.5B | $28.9B | $28.9B |
| Total Equity | $10.0B | $18.0B | $21.6B | $26.3B | $21.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $9.8B | $17.8B | $20.7B | $25.7B | $20.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $10.5B | $9.1B | $11.3B | $12.2B | $14.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.9B | -$2.3B | -$1.5B | -$1.0B | -$1.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.6B | $6.8B | $9.8B | $11.2B | $12.8B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.4B | -$4.9B | -$235.0M | -$254.0M | -$743.0M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$3.4B | -$3.1B | -$3.0B | -$4.1B | -$8.8B |
| Net Change in Cash | $409.0M | -$4.0B | $5.4B | -$678.0M | -$6.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:12am (1d ago)| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$42.6B $41.9B – $43.5B
|
$42.8B $40.6B – $47.2B
|
$46.8B $46.6B – $46.9B
|
$52.9B $50.8B – $56.5B
|
| EBITDA |
$14.5B $14.3B – $14.8B
|
$14.6B $13.8B – $16.1B
|
$15.9B $15.9B – $16.0B
|
$18.0B $17.3B – $19.2B
|
| Net Income |
$12.1B $11.6B – $12.6B
|
$12.2B $10.6B – $13.7B
|
$10.3B $10.3B – $15.3B
|
$16.1B $15.2B – $17.5B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:16am (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +31.7% | -19.0% | +8.8% | +13.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +32.4% | -22.0% | +9.8% | +12.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +62.0% | -50.9% | +29.3% | +22.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +43.0% | -44.1% | +40.2% | -45.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +38.9% | -42.3% | +28.1% | +17.2% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:16am (1d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 294.00 | $193.81 | $56,979 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 750.00 | $194.65 | $145,989 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 343.00 | $195.48 | $67,051 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 48.00 | $196.43 | $9,428 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 120.00 | $197.78 | $23,733 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 102.00 | $198.54 | $20,251 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 177.00 | $199.71 | $35,348 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 180.00 | $200.54 | $36,097 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 108.00 | $201.69 | $21,783 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 215.00 | $202.75 | $43,591 |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | S-Sale | 163.00 | $203.25 | $33,130 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 44.53 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 314.72 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 316.50 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 171.02 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 314.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 171.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 424.89 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | F-InKind | 440.00 | $202.51 | $89,104 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | M-Exempt | 44.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 1:35am (7d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | $0.92 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-25 |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.89 | 2026-01-12 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-26 |
| 2025-12-04 | $0.89 | 2025-10-06 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-18 |
| 2025-09-04 | $0.89 | 2025-07-07 | 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-06-05 | $0.89 | 2025-04-09 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-26 |
| 2025-03-06 | $0.85 | 2025-01-17 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-27 |
| 2024-12-05 | $0.85 | 2024-10-07 | 2024-12-05 | 2024-12-19 |
| 2024-09-05 | $0.85 | 2024-07-17 | 2024-09-05 | 2024-09-26 |
| 2024-05-30 | $0.85 | 2024-04-12 | 2024-05-30 | 2024-06-20 |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.80 | 2024-01-19 | 2024-02-29 | 2024-03-21 |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.80 | 2023-10-13 | 2023-11-30 | 2023-12-14 |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.80 | 2023-07-14 | 2023-08-31 | 2023-09-21 |
| 2023-05-31 | $0.80 | 2023-04-12 | 2023-06-01 | 2023-06-22 |
| 2023-03-01 | $0.75 | 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-02 | 2023-03-23 |
| 2022-11-30 | $0.75 | 2022-10-14 | 2022-12-01 | 2022-12-15 |
| 2022-08-31 | $0.75 | 2022-07-15 | 2022-09-01 | 2022-09-22 |
| 2022-06-01 | $0.75 | 2022-04-13 | 2022-06-02 | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-03-02 | $0.75 | 2022-01-18 | 2022-03-03 | 2022-03-24 |
| 2021-12-01 | $0.68 | 2021-10-13 | 2021-12-02 | 2021-12-16 |
| 2021-09-01 | $0.68 | 2021-07-14 | 2021-09-02 | 2021-09-23 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: QCOM ran $9.39B → $11.67B revenue from mid-2024 through year-end, then plateaued in the $10.4-12.3B range. The most recent quarter (March 2026) shows $10.60B revenue with a $7.37B net income and 69.5% margin — that is not an operating reality, that is a one-time gain (likely a tax benefit, legal settlement, or divestiture mark). Strip it out and underlying NI is probably $2.5-3.0B, consistent with the prior four quarters. The Sept 2025 quarter posted a $3.12B *loss* on $11.27B revenue — again, a charge (impairment or litigation), because surrounding quarters print ~25% net margins. So the "real" run-rate is roughly $44-46B revenue and $11-13B normalized NI. At $216B market cap, that's ~17-19x normalized earnings, not the 22x TTM headline. Annual FY25 NI of $5.54B vs FY24's $10.14B confirms a sizable non-cash hit landed in fiscal 2025.
The synthesis verdict of $63 fair value vs $205 — a 69% overvaluation call — is, frankly, indefensible as written. $12.8B in FCF on a $216B market cap is a 5.9% FCF yield; this is not a stock priced for hypergrowth. If you DCF $12-13B FCF growing at 4-5% with a 9% discount rate, you get something north of $150, not $63. The narrative model parrots the same $63 anchor and then constructs a "225% premium = pure AI speculation" story to rationalize it. That's backwards reasoning from a broken model output. I suspect the DCF is choking on the FY25 GAAP NI collapse and extrapolating it. The pre-flight and market-forces takes are far more grounded: this is a hybrid licensing/chip business going through a diversification reset, fairly priced with optionality, not a 3x bubble.
The genuine bear case isn't valuation — it's Apple. Apple's C1 modem in the iPhone 16e and the path to full in-house modems by 2027 removes what has historically been ~20% of QCT revenue and a chunk of QTL royalties. MediaTek continues taking Android share at the low/mid end. Auto and IoT (combined ~$5B run-rate) are growing nicely but can't replace a $7-8B Apple hole on the timeline the market needs. The recent_earnings_yoy of -45.4% and decelerating quarterly trend are warning signs that the smartphone cycle peaked in late 2024. Revenue CAGR of 11.2% is flattered by the FY23 trough comp; FY22 revenue was $44.2B and FY25 is $44.3B — three years of zero organic growth in the actual business. That's the contrarian read: not overvaluation, but stagnation dressed up as cyclicality.
Insider activity is noise — small share counts, no buying, no large sales. Macro headwinds and lagging sector peers signal correctly: QCOM trades at ~17x normalized earnings while NVDA, AVGO, and even AMD command 25-40x because they own the AI compute narrative. QCOM's edge-AI story is real (Snapdragon X, on-device LLMs) but it's a 2027+ revenue event, and the market is rightly skeptical until it shows up in the print. I dissent strongly from the $63 synthesis fair value — that's a model artifact from the GAAP NI noise. I land closer to $180-195 fair value: roughly 15x normalized earnings of $12B, discounted for the Apple modem cliff and lack of organic growth, with a small premium for the licensing annuity. At $205, the stock is 5-10% above fair, not 225% above. The right action is hold/trim, not short, and certainly not "wait for a 70% drawdown to buy." The catalyst that matters is the FY27 guide once Apple modem impact is quantified; revisit then.
GPT Critique
In reviewing Qualcomm’s financials, I see a company that has shown notable revenue stability, hovering consistently around the $10-12 billion range each quarter. The recent spike in net income to $7.37 billion with a margin of 69.5% in Q1 2026 appears anomalous, likely due to a one-time event rather than operational improvements. This aligns with Opus's assessment that the high net margin is not sustainable. The annual revenue for FY2025 was $44.28 billion, a marginal increase from FY2022, indicating stagnant growth in core operations. The cash flow remains robust, with a free cash flow of $12.82 billion, suggesting solid cash generation capability despite revenue stagnation. Qualcomm's valuation ratios, notably a P/E of 22 and a price-to-sales of 4.09, suggest a mature company rather than one in a hypergrowth phase, somewhat justifying the current price level given the sector's typical valuation metrics.
Opus argues that the synthesis model's $63 fair value is a GAAP-noise artifact, asserting that the real risk lies in Apple's potential modem shift. I concur with this view. The synthesis model likely overreacts to fiscal anomalies, such as the FY2025 net income dip, which can distort long-term valuation models. The market's skepticism about Qualcomm’s diversification into automotive and IoT is reasonable, given the slow materialization of these segments' revenues. I agree with Opus that Qualcomm's fair value is closer to $180-195, reflecting a more realistic assessment of its cash flow and earnings potential, and that the current market price is moderately overvalued.
Disagreeing with Opus, I find the insider activity potentially more telling than he suggests. While the transactions are small, the consistent pattern of sales could indicate insiders' lack of confidence in the stock's near-term prospects, especially in the face of macro headwinds and competitive pressures. Additionally, while Opus downplays the $63 valuation as a model error, I believe it serves as a cautionary signal about investor expectations being overly buoyant, especially in judging Qualcomm's AI and automotive ambitions.
A careful skeptic might argue that both our analyses overly discount Qualcomm's potential for a successful pivot to AI and automotive markets. They could posit that the company’s foundational IP positions it uniquely to capitalize on emerging trends, justifying a premium valuation. However, such a view must contend with the lack of substantial revenue growth evidence from these segments thus far and the formidable competition in AI chipmaking.