Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$99.01
6-month call
Bear -12.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$86.50
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.6% to $86.50
Predicted High
$101.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$86.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:45 am
Bear
RIO trends lower to
$86.50
(-12.6% from $99.01)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisRIO enjoys a near-term sentiment tailwind from the risk-on tape and the 'AI-trade broadens to metals' narrative, likely holding or extending gains for a few weeks. Over months, negative value and quality signals plus a fair value near $80 should reassert gravity, pulling price toward the mid-80s by early 2027.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $108 on strong volume, or a regime flip to risk-off with RIO holding above $95, would falsify the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $99.01 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $99.01 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $92.09–$105.93 typical range · internal point $100.75 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and metals-AI narrative extend near-term lift |
| What actually happened: closed $100.52 on Aug 19, 2026 = +1.5% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $88.98–$109.04 typical range · internal point $101.50 | — | ±10.1% | 5/10 | Momentum persists but valuation resistance emerging |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $98.00 | — | -1.0% | 5/10 | Narrative fatigue begins; value gravity starts pulling |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $94.50 | — | -4.6% | 6/10 | Fair-value pull dominates as sentiment premium fades |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $91.00 | — | -8.1% | 6/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value near 80 |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $88.00 | — | -11.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity continues; negative quality net weighs |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $86.50 | — | -12.6% | 4/10 | Settles above deterministic anchor as fundamentals reassert |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $90.44 (-8.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $99.01 |
| Composite fair value | $79.56 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $81.82 |
| DCF fair value | $75.12 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -10 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.7% 3m 35.1% 6m 34.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.97 3m 1.56 5m 1.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | RIO-20260805-002504-43d7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIO-20260805-013018-a24f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIO-20260805-013018-a24f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIO-20260805-013018-a24f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIO-20260805-013018-a24f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | RIO-20260805-002504-43d7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | RIO-20260805-002504-43d7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $99.01 | $86.50 | -12.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.