Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$215.19
6-month call
Neutral +2.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$221.00
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+2.7% to $221.00
Predicted High
$221.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$213.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:49 am
Neutral
RMD trends range-bound to
$221.00
(+2.7% from $215.19)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisRMD trades near composite fair value with weak 6-month momentum but strong quality and a constructive tape; expect a slow grind toward the signal-adjusted anchor near $218-220 with modest early drift and mild appreciation as the durable compounder narrative reasserts itself absent an earnings catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break below $200 on volume or a negative pre-announcement would falsify the mild-recovery path; a sustained move above $230 would mean the thesis is too conservative.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $215.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $215.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $199.63–$230.75 typical range · internal point $214.50 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift near current with weak momentum tail |
| What actually happened: closed $220.37 on Aug 17, 2026 = +2.4% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $192.64–$237.74 typical range · internal point $213.00 | — | ±10.5% | 5/10 | Slight sag as recent 6mo weakness lingers |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $215.50 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Stabilization as tape stays risk-on, no catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $218.00 | — | +1.3% | 5/10 | Q4 print risk resolves; quality bid returns |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $219.50 | — | +2.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward signal-adjusted anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $220.00 | — | +2.2% | 4/10 | Year-turn positioning favors durable compounders |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $221.00 | — | +2.7% | 3/10 | Mild appreciation toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $215.78 (+0.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $215.19 |
| Composite fair value | $208.84 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $218.66 |
| DCF fair value | $167.69 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $403.95 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -44 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.8% 3m 36.3% 6m 32.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.04 3m -0.16 5m 0.32 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | RMD-20260803-124727-a9dc |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-RMD-20260803-132318-b9f9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-RMD-20260803-132318-b9f9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-RMD-20260803-132318-b9f9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-RMD-20260803-132318-b9f9 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | RMD-20260803-124727-a9dc |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | RMD-20260803-124727-a9dc |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $215.19 | $221.00 | +2.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.