Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 13, 2026 · 9 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for ResMed Inc. (RMD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +12 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 80 · Value -44 · Sentiment 7 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $257.68 vs $215.59 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

ResMed Inc.

RMD NYSE
Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies
San Diego, CA 92123, United States resmed.com Updated Aug 2, 2:52pm
Price
$210.98
Market Cap
$30.6B
Employees
10,600
Beta
0.78
Avg Volume
1,511,253
Last Dividend
$2.40
CEO
Mr. Michael J. Farrell BE, MBA, SM

ResMed Inc. is a healthcare company that develops and supplies digital health technologies and cloud-connected medical devices for respiratory care. Its core products support the treatment of sleep apnea, COPD, and other chronic diseases through flow generators, masks, and related accessories used in home-based and clinical settings. ResMed also provides software and data platforms that help clinicians, patients, and care providers monitor therapy and manage ongoing treatment more effectively. The company serves healthcare systems, medical professionals, and patients across multiple regions, with a strong presence in the Americas as well as Europe, Japan, and Australia. Headquartered in San Diego, California, ResMed plays an important role in the medical instruments and supplies market by combining device-based therapy with connected digital care solutions.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 12:58pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$215.62
as of Aug 3, 1:08pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+4.64 (+2.20%)
Day Range
$213.99 – $217.27
52-Week Range
$180.27 – $293.81
50-Day MA
$199.34
200-Day MA
$231.74
Volume
175,712.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 145,040,224.00
Float 144,155,584.00
Free Float 99.4%
High free float — 99.4% of shares trade freely, ~0.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:14pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:14pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:55pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
22.59
Stock Price: $210.98
EPS (Diluted): 9.51
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.30
Stock Price: $210.98
Total Equity: $5.97B
Shares: 147,340,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
16.45
Market Cap: $30.60B
Total Debt: $668.29M
Cash: $1.21B
EBITDA: $1.88B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$31.0B
Market Cap: $30.60B
Total Debt: $668.29M
Cash: $1.21B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
59.4%
Gross Profit: $3.05B
Revenue: $5.15B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
32.7%
Operating Income: $1.69B
Revenue: $5.15B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
27.2%
Net Income: $1.40B
Revenue: $5.15B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
23.5%
Net Income: $1.40B
Total Equity: $5.97B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
25.9%
Operating Income: $1.69B
Tax Rate: 16.5%
Equity: $5.97B
Total Debt: $668.29M
Cash: $1.21B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.44
Current Assets: $3.51B
Current Liabilities: $1.02B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.11
Short-Term Debt: $9.90M
Long-Term Debt: $658.39M
Total Debt: $668.29M
Total Equity: $5.97B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$34.93
Revenue: $5.15B
Shares: 147,340,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$40.50
Total Equity: $5.97B
Shares: 147,340,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$11.28
Operating CF: $1.75B
CapEx: -$89.87M
Shares: 147,340,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.1%
Last Dividend: $2.40
Stock Price: $210.98
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
22.2%
Dividends Paid: -$310.88M
Net Income: $1.40B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:55pm
Compares RMD against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:14pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.2B $3.6B $4.2B $4.7B $5.1B
Cost of Revenue $1.4B $1.6B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B
Gross Profit $1.8B $2.0B $2.4B $2.7B $3.1B
Operating Expenses $935.4M $1.0B $1.2B $1.3B $1.4B
Operating Income $903.7M $1.0B $1.1B $1.3B $1.7B
Net Income $474.5M $779.4M $897.6M $1.0B $1.4B
EBITDA $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B $1.5B $1.9B
EPS $3.27 $5.34 $6.12 $6.94 $9.55
EPS (Diluted) $3.24 $5.30 $6.09 $6.92 $9.51
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $295.3M $273.7M $227.9M $238.4M $1.2B
Total Current Assets $1.6B $1.9B $2.4B $2.4B $3.5B
Total Assets $4.7B $5.1B $6.8B $6.9B $8.2B
Current Liabilities $911.8M $689.3M $758.5M $910.7M $1.0B
Long-Term Debt $643.4M $765.3M $1.4B $697.3M $658.4M
Total Liabilities $1.8B $1.7B $2.6B $2.0B $2.2B
Total Equity $2.9B $3.4B $4.1B $4.9B $6.0B
Retained Earnings $3.1B $3.6B $4.3B $5.0B $6.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:14pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $736.7M $351.1M $693.3M $1.4B $1.8B
Capital Expenditure -$102.7M -$134.8M -$119.7M -$99.5M -$89.9M
Free Cash Flow $634.0M $216.3M $573.6M $1.3B $1.7B
Acquisitions (net) -$39.1M -$42.8M -$1.0B -$133.5M -$139.2M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$522.0M $122.0M $665.0M -$730.0M -$40.0M
Dividends Paid -$226.7M -$245.3M -$258.3M -$282.3M -$310.9M
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$150.0M -$300.0M
Net Change in Cash -$167.9M -$21.6M -$45.8M $10.5M $971.1M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 1:14pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +11.9% +18.0% +10.9% +9.8%
Gross Profit Growth +10.1% +16.4% +12.7% +15.1%
Operating Income Growth +10.7% +13.2% +16.6% +27.7%
Net Income Growth +64.3% +15.2% +13.7% +37.2%
EBITDA Growth +9.4% +11.8% +15.4% +25.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:47pm (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-14 $0.60
2026-02-12 $0.60
2025-11-13 $0.60
2025-08-14 $0.60
2025-05-08 $0.53
2025-02-13 $0.53
2024-11-07 $0.53
2024-08-15 $0.53
2024-05-08 $0.48
2024-02-07 $0.48
2023-11-08 $0.48
2023-08-16 $0.48
2023-05-10 $0.44
2023-02-08 $0.44
2022-11-09 $0.44
2022-08-17 $0.44
2022-05-11 $0.42
2022-02-09 $0.42
2021-11-09 $0.42
2021-08-18 $0.42
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for RMD — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 13:13:22
Verdict Modestly undervalued at $211 — quality compounder trading at 18x FCF with 25% ROIC deserves $235-250; dissent from "fair value" tag, accumulate under $215 pending Q4 margin durability check.

Starting with the raw numbers: ResMed printed $1.43B revenue in the March 2026 quarter with 27.9% net margin, versus $1.22B/23.9% eighteen months prior. That's ~9-10% top-line YoY with 400bps of margin expansion — a genuine step-function, not noise. Annual revenue went $3.20B → $5.15B in four years (12.6% CAGR), NI nearly tripled from $475M to $1.40B. FCF at $1.66B on $5.15B revenue is a 32% FCF margin with capex running under 2% of sales. Balance sheet is pristine: $1.21B cash vs $668M debt, D/E 0.11, current ratio 3.4. ROIC 25.9%. This is a fortress compounder, full stop. At 22.6x trailing P/E and ~18.4x FCF ($30.6B / $1.66B), you're paying a modest premium for a business earning mid-20s ROIC with 10% organic growth.

Where I part company with the synthesis: "fair value $218.66 vs $210.98" understates the case slightly, and the market-forces framing ("Philips windfall fading, GLP-1 disruption") reads as consensus bear talking points that the numbers actively contradict. If the Philips recall tailwind were the driver, we'd see Q/Q deceleration as competitors re-entered — instead, sequential growth is intact ($1.29B → $1.34B → $1.42B → $1.43B) and margins are still climbing, not mean-reverting. The GLP-1 fear was the entire reason RMD traded down in 2023-24; two years of prints later, sleep apnea diagnoses keep growing and RMD's device volumes with them. The stock re-rated *through* that fear. Meanwhile the pre-flight note claims 22.6x is "10-15% premium to historical medtech" — that's roughly right in isolation, but historical medtech didn't earn 26% ROIC with 32% FCF margins. The multiple looks reasonable against the quality.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously isn't GLP-1 — it's decelerating quarterly growth (recent_revenue_yoy 9.8% vs earlier prints tracking mid-teens including Philips-recall benefit) combined with FCF CAGR of 70% that is mathematically unsustainable and will normalize toward the revenue growth rate. Earnings CAGR of 24.9% is also flattered by operating leverage that has largely played out — going from 23.9% to 27.9% net margin took 18 months; going to 32% would require pricing power that isn't obviously there. So the honest bear frame is: you're buying peak-margin, peak-operating-leverage medtech at 22.6x, and the next four quarters of comps get harder. Insider activity is programmatic 10b5-1 selling (identical 4,991 share option-exercise-and-sells monthly) — neutral, not a red flag, but zero insider buying either. Data is clean; the "2026-07-07" transaction dates look forward-dated versus a presumed current-quarter analysis window — worth flagging as a possible file-date artifact, but doesn't change the read.

My verdict: I dissent mildly from "fair value" toward "modestly undervalued." At $211 with $1.66B FCF growing 10%+, 25%+ ROIC, net cash balance sheet, and a genuinely durable chronic-disease franchise, this trades at ~18x FCF — cheap for the quality. A defensible fair value is $235-250 (20-21x FCF, PEG ~1.1 on a blended 12% earnings growth assumption normalizing from 25%). The synthesis's own DCF at $218 already implies mild upside; the market-forces overlay dragging that back to neutral leans on soft narrative risks (GLP-1, Philips) that the tape has already digested. Where I'd be wrong: if June 2026 quarter shows revenue growth compressing below 8% or margins rolling from 28% back toward 25%, the multiple compresses to 18-19x and fair value drops to $180-190. That's the specific thing to watch — not the story, the print. Right now the trajectory says accumulate under $215, trim above $250.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 13:13:38
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly undervalued at $210.98 — superb cash-generative medtech economics support the price, but most of the margin upgrade is already capitalized; I see reasonable value up to ~$230, not a big rerating story.

ResMed looks better than the “mature earner” label suggests on the actual numbers, but the stock price already reflects most of that improvement. Revenue has stepped up from $4.69B in FY24 to $5.15B in FY25, and the quarterly run-rate has now reached $1.42B-$1.43B in the last two quarters versus $1.22B a year earlier. That is not a sleepy medtech profile; trailing quarterly growth is roughly 16%-17% year over year in the most recent periods, while net income has climbed faster, from $292M in the June 2024 quarter to $399M in March 2026. What stands out most is the margin structure: annual gross margin reached 59.4%, operating margin 32.8%, and net margin 27.2%, while the latest four quarters are consistently in the 26%-28% net margin range. This is a high-quality franchise with unusual profitability for a hardware-anchored medical device company, and the balance sheet reinforces that quality: $1.21B cash against $668M debt, current ratio 3.44, ROIC 25.9%, and $1.66B of free cash flow on just $89.9M of capex. That is an exceptional conversion profile.

The main story in the data is that earnings quality is real, not cosmetic. FY25 net income of $1.40B against $1.75B operating cash flow and $1.66B free cash flow means cash generation is not lagging accounting profits; if anything, it is stronger. With a market cap of $30.6B, the stock is trading around 18.4x FY25 free cash flow and 21.9x FY25 earnings, which is not demanding for a business compounding revenue around 10% and earnings materially faster while carrying net cash. If I annualize the last three quarters of earnings power, ResMed is already running above FY25 levels by a meaningful amount. On simple quality-adjusted terms, this deserves a premium to standard medtech. I do not think the stock is expensive in an absolute sense because this is the kind of business that can plausibly sustain mid-teens EPS growth for longer than bears expect if margin discipline and mix hold.

But the stock is not obviously cheap either, because some of the recent acceleration may not be durable enough to support further multiple expansion. The quarterly revenue line is growing, but sequentially it is flattening a bit: $1.35B in June 2025, $1.34B in September, $1.42B in December, $1.43B in March. That is healthy, not explosive. The more important issue is that the market is already capitalizing ResMed like a structurally upgraded franchise: 6.15x sales, 16.4x EV/EBITDA, 5.3x book. Those are rich enough that if growth settles back toward high single digits and net margin drifts from the current 27%-28% area toward something closer to 24%-25%, upside becomes limited. The insider tape does not bother me much because the pattern is mostly option exercise and same-day sale, but it also does not give any affirmative signal that management views the stock as obviously mispriced.

The best counterargument to my relatively constructive read is that the stock is basically full at $211 because the income statement may be flattered by a favorable period rather than a new baseline. A smart bear would point out that annual revenue CAGR is 10.4%, but the valuation is already discounting a business more like a durable double-digit compounder with software-like resilience. They would also note that quarterly margins have rebounded from 23.9% net margin in June 2024 to nearly 28%, and ask whether this is the high-water mark rather than the new normal. If gross margin of 59.4% and operating margin of 32.8% are at or near peak, then a 22.6x P/E is not cheap for a company exposed to a fairly concentrated treatment category and mature end markets. I weigh that bear case seriously; it is why I am not calling for major upside despite admiring the business.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters hold revenue above roughly $1.40B while net margin stays above 26% and free cash flow remains comfortably ahead of net income, I would become more bullish and start underwriting value in the $230-$240 range because that would confirm the elevated earnings base is durable. Conversely, if revenue growth slips toward mid-single digits or quarterly net income falls back toward the low-$330M range on similar revenue, that would imply the margin story is rolling over and the right multiple is closer to 18x earnings, which would put fair value nearer $180-$190.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 13:14:16
Verdict High-quality compounder fairly valued at $211; worth owning for 8-10% expected returns, not a bargain

The raw numbers describe a cash machine that has quietly upgraded itself. ResMed printed $5.15B in fiscal 2025 revenue at a 59.4% gross margin and converted nearly all of it—$1.66B of free cash flow on only $90M of capex—while net margins climbed from the mid-20s into the high-27% range across the last eight quarters. Sequential revenue has stepped from $1.22B to $1.43B; the latest quarter’s $398.7M net income and 27.9% margin sit well above the year-ago $365M / 28.3% print even as the absolute dollar base grows. ROIC of 26% and ROE of 23.5% on a net-cash balance sheet ($1.21B cash versus $668M debt, D/E 0.11) are the signature of a mature earner that still compounds capital efficiently. The 10.4% revenue CAGR and 24.9% earnings CAGR over the visible window are not explosive, but they are high-quality: earnings are outrunning sales because mix is shifting toward higher-margin masks, cloud software, and recurring consumables rather than one-time device ASP gains. At 22.6× trailing earnings, 16.4× EV/EBITDA and a 5.4% FCF yield, the market is paying a full but not euphoric multiple for that profile—almost exactly the composite fair-value band the models spit out around $209–219.

What stands out is how little narrative premium is embedded. The stock sits within a couple of percent of DCF, the cult coefficient is low, and the story is the unromantic one of aging demographics plus installed-base stickiness. That is precisely why the recent margin expansion matters: it is evidence that the software/digital layer is real enough to lift structural profitability, not just a temporary Philips-recall windfall. Quarterly revenue growth is still near 10% year-on-year even as the absolute base exceeds $1.4B, and the balance-sheet fortress gives management the option to keep returning capital (22% payout, 1.1% yield) or to buy growth without leverage risk. Insider activity is almost entirely option-exercise-and-sell calendars—neutral noise, not a signal of distribution.

The strongest counter-case is straightforward and quantitative. Revenue growth is flagged as decelerating; if the glide path continues toward mid-single digits while the Philips share recapture fully normalizes, the 22.6× multiple becomes expensive rather than fair. GLP-1 agonists remain the real exogenous threat: if durable weight loss materially shrinks the addressable sleep-apnea population, both unit growth and the software attach story weaken simultaneously, and a 16× EV/EBITDA print for a hardware-anchored franchise would compress. Competitive pressure in emerging-market devices and the simple math that earnings CAGR of 25% cannot persist once margin expansion matures are legitimate reasons a skeptic would demand a wider margin of safety than the current ~$211 price offers. I weigh those risks as real but already partially discounted—the 27% drawdown from highs and the absence of any narrative premium suggest the market is not ignoring them—yet I still assign higher probability to the installed base and recurring-revenue mix defending mid-to-high single-digit growth and mid-20s ROIC than to a structural demand collapse.

I would flip to a clear undervalued stance on two consecutive quarters of re-accelerating revenue above 12% accompanied by stable or rising operating margins, or on definitive multi-year clinical data showing GLP-1 therapies do not reduce long-term CPAP adherence. I would flip bearish if trailing revenue growth settles below 6% while net margins roll over below 25%, or if free-cash-flow conversion deteriorates materially from the current ~32% of sales.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 6.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:31:34
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip, starter only 7/10
Fortress-quality compounder (quality 80) trading at fair value (-44, ~3% from FV) inside a neutral tape — own it, but buy it right at $180, not chase it at $215.
The cruxWhether you get a pullback to the $180s to build a real position, because at $215 there is no margin of safety against the DCF's $167 signal or GLP-1 tail risk.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from RMD's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+80
Fortress
edge √Σ 156 · risk √Σ 46 · conf 8/10

The financial trajectory is exceptionally clean: revenue compounded from $3.20B (2021) to $5.15B (2025), roughly 12.6% CAGR, while gross margin expanded from 57.5% to 59.4% and operating margin stepped from 28.3% to 32.7%. Net income nearly tripled ($474.5M to $1.40B) and FCF rose from $634M to $1.66B, with 2025 OCF/NI at 1.08x and accruals at -0.8% of assets - reported earnings are backed by cash. Beneish M at -2.63 and Altman Z at 11.04 corroborate no manipulation flags and deep solvency headroom. Capital structure is conservative: $1.21B liquid cash, $541M net cash, and FCF alone ($1.66B) dwarfs any plausible obligation. Diluted share count barely moved (146.5M to 147.3M, 0.2% CAGR) with buybacks running 121% of SBC, so per-share value is protected. SBC at 1.8% of revenue is disciplined for a healthcare tech firm. The main soft spot is not in the numbers but in what the data cannot show: durability of the sleep-apnea franchise against GLP-1 disruption, and customer/payer concentration - these require filing-level verification. Insider tape is neutral-to-mildly-negative (13 sells, 0 buys, ~$9M), but the pattern is programmatic option-exercise-and-sell by CEO Farrell in equal 5K monthly tranches, which reads as a 10b5-1 plan rather than a conviction signal.

Strengths 5
m85
Margin expansion at scale
Operating margin expanded from 26.8% (2023) to 32.7% (2025) on rising revenue - genuine operating leverage, not mix noise. Gross margin also inflected up 360bps from 2023 trough.
m80
Earnings backed by cash
OCF/NI 1.08x, accruals -0.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.63. FCF grew from $634M to $1.66B while net income grew commensurately - no accrual inflation.
m70
Balance-sheet fortress
Altman Z of 11.04, $541M net cash, $1.66B annual FCF. Zero survival risk on any reasonable horizon.
m65
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares 146.5M to 147.3M over 4 years (0.2% CAGR); buybacks at 121% of SBC. SBC only 1.8% of revenue - unusually restrained for the sector.
m40
FCF conversion normalized
2022 FCF dip to $216M (working capital / supply-chain inventory build) fully reversed by 2024-2025 - the working capital drag was transitory, not structural.
Concerns 2
m30
Insider selling, no buying
13 sells vs 0 buys over 12 months ($9.1M). Pattern is programmatic (monthly 5K exercise-and-sell by CEO) so likely 10b5-1, but the absence of any open-market buying is worth noting.
m35
Franchise durability question not in the data
The 2025 margin surge and revenue reacceleration coincide with a period when GLP-1 disruption fears were priced in; whether the CPAP/mask franchise is truly insulated is a qualitative question the financials alone cannot answer.
This is a genuinely high-quality business. The numbers tell a coherent story: a mature medical device franchise inflecting on operating leverage, converting earnings cleanly to cash, and returning that cash without diluting shareholders. Margin expansion of ~600bps at the operating line over two years on a $5B revenue base is not trivial - that is real productivity, not accounting. The only reason I do not go higher than mid-Fortress is that the derived data cannot answer the one question that matters for durability: how insulated is the sleep-apnea TAM from GLP-1 weight-loss impact over 5-10 years? On the evidence in front of me the company is squarely in the top decile of listed businesses on financial hygiene and execution.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • 10-K disclosure on customer/distributor concentration (DME channel exposure)
  • Segment breakdown between Sleep/Respiratory Care devices, masks, and SaaS - is the margin lift durable or mix-driven?
  • Management commentary and any disclosed data on GLP-1 impact on CPAP patient starts
  • Whether CEO Farrell's monthly option-exercise-and-sell pattern is under a formal 10b5-1 plan
  • R&D as % of revenue trend and pipeline for next-gen devices/AirSense platform
  • Any contingent legal or product recall liabilities (Philips competitive dynamic aftermath)
Valuation / Mispricing
-44
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 79 · conf 7/10
Price $215.59 vs composite FV $208.84 and signal-adj FV $218.66 - gap is roughly +/-3%, statistically indistinguishable from fair. attractive below $180.00

The composite fair value of $208.84 and signal-adjusted FV of $218.66 bracket the current $215.59 price almost perfectly, implying ~2% upside. The methods disagree meaningfully: DCF pegs it at $167.69 (implying ~22% downside), EPV floor at $96.03 (a deep-recession anchor, not a realistic target), and anchored-PE at $403.95 (a runaway output that assumes peer/history multiples fully carry forward on inflected margins - I discount this heavily). Averaging with skepticism, deserved value sits in the $190-220 zone for this Fortress-quality compounder, and $215.59 lands inside that band. The market has correctly identified the operating leverage story (600bps margin expansion, clean cash conversion, no dilution) and paid for it. There is no earnings-quality haircut to apply - the quality signal is pristine, which supports the upper half of the range but does not create a gap. To justify materially higher prices from here, you need continued margin expansion plus device growth reacceleration despite GLP-1 overhang - plausible but already largely embedded. This is the classic 'good business, full price' outcome.

Cheap signals 2
m20
Anchored PE suggests optionality
Anchored-PE of $403.95 implies if margin inflection sustains and multiple re-rates to historical peer levels, significant upside exists - but this method looks runaway and should not be taken at face value.
m25
Quality supports upper end of range
Fortress quality (80), pristine earnings, self-funding, no dilution - justifies deserved value at the higher end of the FV band, keeping the stock from being outright rich.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
No margin of safety at spot
Price sits within 3% of both composite ($208.84) and signal-adjusted ($218.66) fair values - you are paying deserved value with zero cushion for GLP-1, competitive, or macro surprises.
m55
DCF flags ~22% downside
The DCF output of $167.69 vs $215.59 price suggests cash-flow-based intrinsic value is well below spot; the market is leaning on multiple/quality rather than DCF math to hold this price.
m35
Steady-compounder narrative already priced
Consensus view of aging demographics plus software moat is the base case in the price; the bull case requires acceleration beyond what a mature medical device franchise typically delivers.
Fairly valued, plain and simple. This is a Fortress business trading at Fortress prices - the market is not asleep here. I would not chase it at $215; I want it closer to $180 (roughly a 15% pullback, which would give me a real cushion against the DCF's $167 signal and the GLP-1 tail risk). At current levels there is no valuation edge to exploit - the mispricing gap is essentially zero. Hold if you own it, wait if you don't.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Device revenue growth trajectory in next 2 quarters - is GLP-1 impact showing up
  • Sustainability of operating margin expansion (is 600bps a new baseline or peak)
  • Software/SaaS segment growth rate and contribution to blended margin
  • Management guidance on capital returns vs reinvestment
  • Any change in competitive pricing in emerging markets
General Sentiment
+7
Balanced
tail √Σ 52 · head √Σ 45 · conf 6/10

RMD is a low-beta (0.78) medical device compounder carrying a steady-compounder narrative of minimal intensity and durable framing. That combination means the stock is largely insulated from the broader market's moods in either direction: there is no cult premium to unwind, no hot story to fade, and no glaring de-rating pressure. The tape itself is mildly constructive (regime score +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs), which is a small tailwind for defensive healthcare names but nothing that meaningfully re-rates a name trading essentially at DCF fair value. The immediate pressure point is the Q4 print landing now, with sell-side framing EPS up 13.7% on strong mask and device demand plus digital health traction. That is a modest positive setup into the number, but with intensity 'minimal' and no analyst target revisions or narrative shift flagged, there is no evidence of building buy-side enthusiasm ahead of the print. Macro headwinds (10y 4.68%, market PE 26.9) marginally weigh on any long-duration defensive, but a 0.78-beta name with clean momentum and deleveraging (D/E 0.35 to 0.11) absorbs that easily. Net: the non-fundamental push on this specific name is close to neutral, with a faint positive lean from the constructive tape and pre-print framing, offset by the total absence of narrative energy to drive multiple expansion.

Tailwinds 3
m32
Constructive tape suits defensives
Neutral-to-mild-risk-on regime with VIX at 16 is a gentle backdrop for low-beta healthcare compounders; nothing decisive, but the tape is not fighting the name.
m30
Positive Q4 setup framing
Sell-side previews flag EPS up 13.7% on mask/device demand and digital health growth, giving the print a mildly favorable narrative going in.
m28
Durable, low-drama narrative
Steady-compounder archetype with durable framing and low cult coefficient means no fragile story to break; sentiment risk is structurally low.
Headwinds 3
m30
No narrative energy to lift multiple
Intensity is 'minimal' and price sits essentially at DCF fair value, so there is no story-driven bid; the stock trades on cash flows, not enthusiasm.
m25
Rates and stretched market PE
10y at 4.68% and market PE near 27 is a mild drag on defensive long-duration cash flow names, though the low beta blunts the impact on RMD specifically.
m22
Binary event risk into print
Q4 is imminent with expectations already elevated; a miss or soft guide could open a short-term sentiment gap given the lack of a cushion below fair value.
This is about as close to a sentiment-neutral setup as you get. Low beta, durable but quiet narrative, price sitting on DCF fair value, and a mildly constructive tape - none of these forces are pushing hard in either direction. The Q4 print is the only near-term pressure, and the framing going in is modestly positive. I lean a hair toward tailwind but call it Balanced honestly; there is no dominant non-fundamental force here, and pretending otherwise would be manufacturing a story where the market itself has declined to write one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Q4 print reaction: does the stock hold the gap or fade, indicating buy-side positioning
  • Any analyst target revisions post-print, especially on digital health/software mix
  • GLP-1 narrative flare-ups in the sleep apnea cohort (dormant now but a known sentiment landmine)
  • Signs of narrative intensity building or fading in sell-side language after earnings
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat +2.7% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, RMD was $215.19. We expect it to be $221.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $180.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$215.19
Our estimate for Feb 2027$221.00+2.7%
Great value below$180.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for RMD. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06