Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$411.79
6-month call
Bear -8.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$378.00
Great value below
$260.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.2% to $378.00
Predicted High
$410.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$378.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:14 pm
Bear
ROP trends lower to
$378.00
(-8.2% from $411.79)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisROP trades at roughly 2.4x composite fair value, but with strong earnings quality, no upcoming catalyst to force revaluation, and a risk-on tape, near-term drift is modestly lower as the fading-compounder narrative gradually pressures the multiple. Expect slow decay rather than a sharp break, with value gravity partially pulling toward the baseline over six months.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $430 on volume or accelerating organic growth guidance would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $411.79 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $411.79 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $384.05–$439.53 typical range · internal point $410.50 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds, low-beta name drifts sideways |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $371.59–$451.99 typical range · internal point $407.00 | — | ±9.8% | 5/10 | No catalyst, sentiment softens on stretched multiple |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $401.00 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, valuation concerns creep in |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $395.00 | — | -4.1% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, compounder narrative fatigue |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $388.00 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Year-end tax-loss rotation from crowded winners |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $382.00 | — | -7.2% | 3/10 | January repricing toward value anchors continues |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $378.00 | — | -8.2% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence toward baseline, quality floor holds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $370.72 (-10.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $411.79 |
| Composite fair value | $171.06 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $174.65 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $260.00 |
| Value net score | -64 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +53 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.5% 3m 33.8% 6m 29.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.02 3m -0.54 5m -0.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 22.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ROP-20260822-155404-f00f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROP-20260822-161119-ccac |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROP-20260822-161119-ccac |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROP-20260822-161119-ccac |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROP-20260822-161119-ccac |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ROP-20260822-155404-f00f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ROP-20260822-155404-f00f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $411.79 | $378.00 | -8.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.