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FRESH Analysis Report
Aug 22, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 53 · Value -64 · Sentiment -30 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $171.06 vs $411.79 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Roper Technologies Inc.

ROP NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Application
Sarasota, FL 34240, United States ropertech.com Updated Aug 22, 2:07am
Price
$411.63
Market Cap
$40.7B
Employees
19,400
Beta
0.74
Avg Volume
787,500
Last Dividend
$3.64
CEO
Mr. Laurence Neil Hunn

Roper Technologies Inc. is a diversified technology company that operates a portfolio of businesses focused on software and engineered products for specialized end markets worldwide. The company emphasizes asset-light, technology-driven offerings, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from application and network software solutions. Roper Technologies Inc. is organized into segments that include application software, network software and systems, and technology-enabled products, serving sectors such as healthcare, education, industrial, logistics, and professional services. Its businesses provide products and services like enterprise and industry-specific software, SaaS-based trading networks, laboratory information management systems, campus card and cashless solutions, wireless sensor networks, and precision measurement and analytical instruments. Headquartered in Sarasota, Florida, and founded in 1890, Roper Technologies Inc. plays a notable role in enabling digital workflows, data-driven decision-making, and operational efficiency for a wide range of institutional, commercial, and industrial customers.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 22, 2026 4:01pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$411.79
as of Aug 22, 3:54pm (1d ago)
Change · Aug 22
+1.34 (+0.33%)
Day Range
$403.33 – $413.54
52-Week Range
$305.96 – $540.34
50-Day MA
$366.81
200-Day MA
$377.59
Volume
588,200.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 1d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 98,900,874.00
Float 98,352,963.00
Free Float 99.4%
High free float — 99.4% of shares trade freely, ~0.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:11pm (1d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:11pm (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 22, 2026 3:59pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
29.00
Stock Price: $411.63
EPS (Diluted): 14.20
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.24
Stock Price: $411.63
Total Equity: $19.88B
Shares: 108,200,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
16.99
Market Cap: $40.73B
Total Debt: $9.30B
Cash: $297.40M
EBITDA: $3.13B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$53.2B
Market Cap: $40.73B
Total Debt: $9.30B
Cash: $297.40M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
69.2%
Gross Profit: $5.47B
Revenue: $7.90B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
28.3%
Operating Income: $2.24B
Revenue: $7.90B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
19.4%
Net Income: $1.54B
Revenue: $7.90B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
7.7%
Net Income: $1.54B
Total Equity: $19.88B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
6.1%
Operating Income: $2.24B
Tax Rate: 20.6%
Equity: $19.88B
Total Debt: $9.30B
Cash: $297.40M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.52
Current Assets: $1.93B
Current Liabilities: $3.73B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.47
Short-Term Debt: $705.20M
Long-Term Debt: $8.60B
Total Debt: $9.30B
Total Equity: $19.88B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$73.04
Revenue: $7.90B
Shares: 108,200,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$183.75
Total Equity: $19.88B
Shares: 108,200,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$23.48
Operating CF: $2.54B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 108,200,000
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.9%
Last Dividend: $3.64
Stock Price: $411.63
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
23.1%
Dividends Paid: -$355.00M
Net Income: $1.54B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 22, 2026 3:59pm
Compares ROP against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:11pm (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $5.8B $5.4B $6.2B $7.0B $7.9B
Cost of Revenue $1.9B $1.6B $1.9B $2.2B $2.4B
Gross Profit $3.9B $3.8B $4.3B $4.9B $5.5B
Operating Expenses $2.4B $2.2B $2.6B $2.9B $3.2B
Operating Income $1.5B $1.5B $1.7B $2.0B $2.2B
Net Income $1.2B $4.5B $1.4B $1.5B $1.5B
EBITDA $2.1B $2.2B $2.5B $2.8B $3.1B
EPS $10.95 $42.92 $12.98 $14.47 $14.30
EPS (Diluted) $10.82 $42.55 $12.89 $14.35 $14.20
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:54pm (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $351.5M $792.8M $214.3M $188.2M $297.4M
Total Current Assets $2.4B $1.9B $1.5B $1.5B $1.9B
Total Assets $23.7B $27.0B $28.2B $31.3B $34.6B
Current Liabilities $3.1B $2.9B $3.0B $3.8B $3.7B
Long-Term Debt $7.1B $6.0B $5.8B $6.6B $8.6B
Total Liabilities $12.2B $10.9B $10.7B $12.5B $14.7B
Total Equity $11.6B $16.0B $17.4B $18.9B $19.9B
Retained Earnings $9.5B $13.7B $14.8B $16.0B $17.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:11pm (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.0B $734.6M $2.0B $2.4B $2.5B
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net) -$217.0M -$4.3B -$2.1B -$3.6B -$3.3B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 $0 $0 $2.0B $2.0B
Dividends Paid -$236.4M -$262.3M -$290.2M -$321.9M -$355.0M
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$500.0M
Net Change in Cash $43.2M $441.3M -$578.5M -$26.1M $109.2M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:11pm (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -7.0% +15.0% +13.9% +12.3%
Gross Profit Growth -4.2% +14.8% +13.3% +12.2%
Operating Income Growth +3.0% +14.5% +14.4% +11.9%
Net Income Growth +294.3% -69.5% +11.9% -0.8%
EBITDA Growth +2.9% +15.0% +12.4% +11.5%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:54pm (1d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-10-02 $0.91
2026-07-08 $0.91
2026-04-06 $0.91
2026-01-02 $0.91
2025-10-03 $0.83
2025-07-08 $0.83
2025-04-04 $0.83
2025-01-03 $0.83
2024-10-08 $0.75
2024-07-08 $0.75
2024-04-04 $0.75
2024-01-08 $0.75
2023-10-05 $0.68
2023-07-07 $0.68
2023-04-05 $0.68
2023-01-06 $0.68
2022-10-05 $0.62
2022-07-07 $0.62
2022-04-04 $0.62
2022-01-07 $0.62
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-22 16:19
1.6 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +32%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 20%. Ratio 1.6:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($411.79)
Bull — recovery +20% 34.8% $545.16 +32%
Base — stabilizes +13% 30.2% $391.14 -5%
Bear — keeps slipping +7% 25.7% $273.94 -33%
Stress — last quarter repeats +8% 29.7% $330.37 -20%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-30) — growth stays at 8.5% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.98). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +9.9% · operating income +7.5% · net income +136.5% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2026 (revenue +8.5%, operating income +6.6% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ROP — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 16:17

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Roper keeps compounding low-double-digit revenue on recurring vertical software plus serial capital deployment, but it is growing slower than its own category and organic momentum is decaying — growth, not acceleration. conf 7/10
Share loss Category growing · Category is expanding strongly (median recent growth 18.3%, industry 3yr CAGR 19.1%, margins widening). Roper is growing ~10-12% — positive but roughly 6.5pp below the category, i.e. riding the tide while quietly ceding relative position; its niches are slower-growing than the AI/cloud core of application software.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Recurring revenue plus already-closed acquisitions make the next two prints highly predictable: continued high-single to low-double-digit revenue growth with margin stability. No order book or cyclical exposure large enough to break the pattern in six months.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year trajectory holds around low-double-digit total revenue growth — mid-single-digit organic plus contribution from deployed capital — with earnings growth lagging revenue because of amortization and financing cost. Decelerating quarterly trend argues against acceleration.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Structural earnings power still rises: sticky recurring bases with contractual pricing plus reinvestment of substantial free cash into vertical software. But the -6.5pp gap to category growth and the 5.35% historical earnings CAGR argue for steady mid-to-high-single-digit earnings compounding, not the double-digit compounding the bull narrative implies.
— expectations unclear
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
68 Recurring, mission-critical vertical software base — Majority of revenue is subscription/recurring in regulated niches (insurance workflow, healthcare compliance, education administration, freight data) where switching costs are high and annual price escalators are contractual. This is what produces the low volatility in the measured record (0.0084 volatility, all years positive) and makes 8-10% top-line durable rather than order-dependent.
60 Serial capital deployment engine — Roper's structural growth = mid-single-digit organic + acquired revenue. The measured +9.9% revenue YoY against a decelerating organic trend implies M&A is carrying several points. Balance-sheet-funded, asset-light targets in fragmented verticals; this is the single most reliable mechanism keeping total growth in double digits.
46 Category in genuine expansion — Application software category median recent growth 18.3%, industry 3-year revenue CAGR 19.1% with margins expanding industry-wide (+8.8pp op, +6.2pp net). A rising vertical-SaaS tide supports pricing, net retention and seat/usage expansion even for a below-average grower.
30 Consistent modest EPS overdelivery — Last five prints beat estimates (+1%, +3%, +6%, +2%; one large distorted quarter). Suggests conservative guidance-setting and controlled cost structure — the near-term print risk is skewed slightly upward.
Growth risks
58 Share loss inside a faster category — Recent YoY 12.3% vs industry 18.7% — a -6.5pp gap. Roper participates in software growth but is not winning it; its verticals (education, freight, government) grow slower than the AI/cloud-heavy parts of the category. Structural, not fixable by cost action.
54 Organic deceleration — Quarterly trend flagged decelerating; momentum neutral (0). Revenue YoY has drifted from the 13.1% multi-year CAGR toward ~10%. If organic slips to low single digits, total growth becomes almost entirely M&A-dependent.
50 Earnings power lagging revenue — Earnings CAGR 5.35% vs revenue CAGR 13.1%, and recent earnings YoY -0.8% before the distorted +136.5% comp (a base-effect, not an earnings inflection). Acquisition amortization, deal costs and interest at a 4.69% 10-year absorb much of the top-line compounding.
43 M&A dependence meets higher cost of capital — With rates elevated and macro headwinds, deal hurdle rates rise and asset prices in vertical SaaS remain firm. A pause in deployment, or one poorly-integrated large deal, directly removes points of reported growth.
23 AI intermediation of workflow software — Some Roper assets are data/workflow toll-booths (freight matching, document and compliance workflow) where AI agents could compress seat counts or disintermediate lookup value. Regulated data moats blunt this, but seat-based pricing is exposed.
The world is paying more, not less, for regulated workflow software: compliance burden, digitization of mid-market verticals and data-network effects all favour owners of embedded systems of record. That backdrop keeps Roper's revenue base sticky and price-escalating. Against it, two forces push the other way: capital costs (10y 4.69%) raise the bar on the acquisition engine that supplies half of reported growth, and AI is redistributing category growth toward platforms selling new capability rather than incumbents selling incumbency. Roper's outcome is therefore less about demand existing and more about whether it can keep buying growth at acceptable returns while organic holds mid-single digits.
Growth position composite +0
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+0Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-22 16:10:30
Verdict Overvalued but not by 58% — normalized fair value ~$300-360 vs $412; pass, revisit below $340 or after the anomalous Q2 2026 margin is explained.

The raw numbers tell a coherent story: revenue growth is real (13.1% CAGR, 12.3% recent YoY, quarterly march from $1.76B to $2.11B), gross margin is genuinely software-like at 69%, and operating cash flow of $2.54B on $7.9B revenue is a 32% OCF margin — these are compounder-grade fundamentals. But two things jump out that the synthesis buries. First, the June 2026 quarter shows $1.17B net income on $2.11B revenue — a 55.4% net margin that is completely inconsistent with the surrounding quarters (17-25%) and with the full-year 2025 net margin of 19.4%. That is either a massive one-time gain (divestiture, tax benefit, mark-to-market) or a data error; either way, trailing EPS and thus the 29x PE are distorted downward. Strip that quarter and normalized PE is closer to 34-36x. Second, ROIC of 6.1% and ROE of 7.7% for a "high-quality compounder" are mediocre — this is what happens when you fund $9.3B of debt-plus-equity acquisitions and the goodwill sits on the balance sheet earning cash-on-cash returns well below the multiple implies.

The DCF fair value of $171 feels too punitive to me and I'd push back on the synthesis there. A business generating $2.54B in operating cash flow, growing 12-13%, with 69% gross margins and demonstrated pricing power in vertical SaaS niches, does not trade at $171 (~$17B market cap, 6.7x OCF) outside of a genuine crisis. A more honest bear case anchors around 20-22x normalized earnings of ~$16-17/share = $320-370, plus some credit for the M&A optionality that has actually worked for two decades. So my fair value band is $300-360, not $175. That still makes ROP overvalued at $412, just not catastrophically so — call it 15-25% overvalued, not 58%.

The contrarian argument the models underweight: Roper's organic growth is likely 6-8%, with the balance coming from acquisitions funded by debt (D/E 0.47, current ratio 0.52 — that current ratio is genuinely tight for a company this leveraged). Earnings CAGR of 5.4% versus revenue CAGR of 13.1% is the tell — they are buying revenue that dilutes returns. The market-forces model flagging "deteriorating capital allocator masking organic weakness" is directionally right even if harshly worded. Recent earnings YoY of -0.8% against 12.3% revenue growth is exactly what late-cycle roll-ups look like before the multiple compresses. The insider activity is too thin to read (three small transactions, roles unlabeled) but the pattern of option-exercise-and-immediately-sell is not a vote of confidence, just routine comp monetization.

Where I dissent from the synthesis: the "$175 fair value, 58% downside" verdict is directionally correct but numerically overreaches, and it leans on a DCF that appears to have punished terminal growth or discount rate unrealistically for an asset with this cash flow profile. Where I agree with the synthesis: at $412 you are paying a heavy narrative premium for a compounder thesis that has never been stress-tested in a genuine software downturn, and the ROIC decay is real. Where I flag the data: that 55.4% Q2 2026 margin needs an explanation before anyone trusts trailing metrics; the missing FCF and capex lines mean I'm inferring FCF from OCF; and "conglomerate serial acquirer" is a fundamentally different valuation exercise than the mature-earner archetype the rule-based classifier assigned (0.78 confidence is overstated). The narrative layer's read — anchored, moderate durability, ~70% narrative premium — is the most intellectually honest of the prior outputs, and I'd defer to that framing over the synthesis's precise number.

Net: I side with the overvalued direction but at lower conviction and a shallower discount than the synthesis. Fair value ~$330, current $412 = ~20% overvalued, which is a pass-not-short in a quality name where the compounding could bail out the multiple over 3-4 years if organic growth reaccelerates. I'd want to see the Q2 anomaly explained, ROIC stop declining, and organic growth disclosed clearly before touching this at anything above $340.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-22 16:10:46
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $411.63 — excellent business quality, but fair value looks closer to $330-$360 unless normalized margins and ROIC step up materially.

What jumps out is that Roper still looks like a very good business, but not an obviously good stock at $411. Revenue has compounded from $5.37B in 2022 to $7.90B in 2025, and the quarterly run-rate now sits a little above $8.4B annualized with 2026 Q1 and Q2 both over $2.1B. Gross margin at 69.2% and operating margin at 28.3% are exactly what investors want from a software-heavy portfolio, and operating cash flow of $2.54B on $7.90B of sales is strong. The issue is not quality; it is what kind of growth and return profile you are actually buying. Net income barely moved from $1.55B in 2024 to $1.54B in 2025 despite revenue rising 12%, and the most recent YoY earnings signal is negative even as revenue keeps climbing. That is not the profile of a clean software compounder deserving any price.

The quarterly pattern reinforces that concern. Revenue grew from $1.76B in 2024 Q3 to $2.11B in 2026 Q2, a healthy trajectory, but net margins are inconsistent: 20.8%, 24.6%, 17.6%, 19.5%, 19.8%, 20.8%, 24.3%, then a bizarre 55.4% in the latest quarter. I would not capitalize that 55% margin as sustainable operating strength; it almost certainly reflects a gain, tax event, or accounting item rather than an underlying step-change in economics. If you normalize toward the 19-24% band, Roper is producing roughly $1.7B-$2.0B of annual earnings power on today’s revenue base, not some suddenly transformed profit machine. Against a $40.7B market cap, that is still around 20-24x a normalized earnings number before giving much credit for debt. On enterprise value, the stock already sits near 17x EBITDA and 6.7x revenue, rich multiples for a company with ROIC of 6.1% and ROE of 7.7%, both far less impressive than the brand halo suggests.

The balance sheet and capital allocation angle matter more here than for a standard software name because Roper’s model depends on disciplined acquisition economics. Debt of $9.30B against just $297M of cash is manageable with $2.54B of operating cash flow, but it reduces the margin for error if acquisition valuations stay high or organic growth softens. The current ratio of 0.52 is not alarming for this type of company, yet it does underscore that this is not a fortress balance sheet SaaS company with net cash optionality. If the market is paying a premium for Roper as a compounding allocator, I want to see either clearly superior returns on capital or stronger earnings conversion than the recent data show. Instead, the numbers say revenue growth has outrun earnings growth for years: 2023 to 2025 revenue up 28%, net income up only 12% if you ignore the anomalous 2022 spike. That spread is the central problem with the bull case.

The smartest pushback is that I may be underweighting the quality of the mix shift and the value of durability. A 69% gross margin business at nearly $8B of revenue with recurring, niche, mission-critical software assets deserves a premium to ordinary industrial conglomerates and even to many horizontal software peers. Revenue has been consistently rising quarter after quarter, recent YoY growth is still 12.3%, and 2026 quarterly earnings excluding the odd June quarter were already improving from $331M in 2025 Q1 to $509M in 2026 Q1. If that progression reflects operating leverage rather than noise, then today’s multiple could compress faster than I expect. The debt load is also not excessive relative to earnings power, and Roper has a long history of integrating acquisitions better than most roll-ups. A buyer can reasonably argue that 29x trailing earnings is acceptable for a defensive, high-margin serial acquirer when many lower-quality software names trade on weaker cash generation.

What would change my mind is simple: I need proof that earnings quality is catching up to revenue quality. If the next few quarters sustain revenue above $2.1B while delivering recurring net margins above 23-25% without one-offs, or if annual operating income moves decisively above $2.5B with cash flow following, then the current price would look less stretched. Likewise, evidence that ROIC is moving from 6% toward double digits on the enlarged asset base would validate the premium allocator narrative. Until then, the stock looks priced for a cleaner, faster, and higher-return compounding story than the actual data support.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-22 16:11:19
Verdict Overvalued at $412; quality compounder but 29x PE and 6% ROIC do not support the ~70%+ narrative premium to ~$175-220 intrinsic range

The numbers describe a competent serial acquirer that has successfully migrated toward higher-margin vertical software, not a compounding machine that justifies a near-29x earnings multiple. Revenue has compounded at roughly 13% annually and is still printing mid-teens sequential dollars—$2.11B and $2.10B in the two most recent quarters versus $1.94B and $1.88B a year earlier—while gross margin sits at a genuine software-like 69%. Operating margin of 28% and free-cash-flow conversion implied by $2.54B of operating cash flow on $7.9B of 2025 revenue are real strengths. Yet the earnings power underneath is far less impressive: annual net income was essentially flat at $1.54B in 2025 versus $1.55B in 2024, the multi-year earnings CAGR is only 5.4%, and recent earnings growth is negative. The $1.17B net-income print in the June 2026 quarter (55% margin) is an obvious one-time item that temporarily flatters trailing PE; strip it out and the underlying mid-20% net margins and mid-single-digit earnings growth reappear. Returns on capital tell the same story: ROIC of 6.1% and ROE of 7.7% are mediocre for a company the market treats as a software compounder, especially one carrying $9.3B of debt against only $297M of cash and a current ratio of 0.52. At $411 the stock is pricing durability and capital-allocation genius that the realized ROIC and earnings trajectory have not yet delivered.

The valuation gap is the central fact. A 29x PE, 5.6x sales and 17x EV/EBITDA on mid-single-digit earnings growth and sub-8% ROE is a narrative multiple, not a cash-flow multiple. The models that spit out ~$175 fair value are directionally correct even if their absolute precision is debatable; the market is paying a roughly 70-100% premium for the story that Roper is the Berkshire of niche SaaS. That story is not baseless—switching costs in regulated verticals are high and management has a long M&A track record—but it is running well ahead of the organic evidence. Revenue growth is already flagged as decelerating, and the portfolio’s reported growth continues to lean on acquisition contribution rather than demonstrated pricing power or share gains inside the installed base.

The strongest counter-argument is straightforward: high-teens recurring revenue, 69% gross margins and two decades of value-accretive deals have historically allowed Roper to compound through cycles, and quality-factor and compounder funds will keep bid under the stock as long as that reputation holds. A bull can also note that the 2022 net-income spike and the latest quarter’s surge show the company can surface large gains when it exits assets, and that EV/EBITDA of 17 is not insane versus pure-play vertical software. Those points have merit on a multi-year horizon, but they do not erase the current math: you are paying 29x for 5% earnings growth and a 6% ROIC business whose organic momentum is softening. I weigh the realized returns and the decelerating top-line more heavily than the pedigree.

I would reverse to neutral or constructive only if organic revenue re-accelerates sustainably above 10%, ROIC moves back toward the mid-teens on the existing portfolio (not just on new deals), and net leverage declines while earnings growth re-couples to revenue growth for several consecutive quarters without one-time items.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-22 16:19:11
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - pass, revisit lower 8/10
Great business, wrong price - ROP at $412 is priced for flawless M&A compounding, and I don't pay 2x deserved value for anyone.
The cruxWhether organic growth can reaccelerate enough to justify a premium that already assumes serial accretive M&A runs forever - if organic keeps decelerating, the multiple compresses regardless of how good the business is.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ROP's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+53
Strong
edge √Σ 131 · risk √Σ 72 · conf 8/10

Roper delivers exactly what a mature compounder should: revenue grew from 5.78B in 2021 to 7.90B in 2025 (roughly 8% CAGR), gross margin sits at a durable 69% and operating margin has held between 25.6% and 28.4% throughout. FCF stepped from 2.01B to 2.54B, and OCF/NI of 1.32x with accruals at just 0.5% of assets indicates earnings are genuinely cash-backed. Beneish M of -2.53 shows no manipulation signature. The 2022 net income spike to 4.54B is a one-off gain (likely divestiture-related) not a recurring earnings feature. Dilution is essentially inert: diluted share count moved from 106.5M to 108.2M over four years (0.4% CAGR), SBC is a modest 2.1% of revenue, though buybacks only offset 72.4% of SBC, meaning capital return via repurchase is minimal. Roper's model is acquisition-driven, so the softness is on the balance sheet: 9.00B net debt against just 297M liquid cash, with 705M of short-term debt exceeding cash on hand. FCF of 2.54B easily services this, and Altman Z of 2.74 sits in grey but not distressed. Insider activity is immaterial and neutral (two small sales totaling ~3M). The business quality read is that of a well-run, high-margin, cash-generative software conglomerate whose main constraint is leverage taken on to fund the roll-up strategy.

Strengths 4
m75
Durable elite margins
Gross margin ~69% and operating margin ~28% held rock-steady across five years while revenue grew from 5.78B to 7.90B — consistent with genuine pricing power across the portfolio.
m70
High-quality earnings
OCF/NI 1.32x, accruals only 0.5% of assets, Beneish M -2.53, and FCF of 2.54B on 1.54B net income — no red flags in mechanical integrity checks.
m60
Minimal dilution
Diluted shares moved 106.5M to 108.2M (0.4% CAGR); SBC at 2.1% of revenue is modest for a software-heavy portfolio.
m55
Consistent FCF growth
FCF rose 2.01B to 2.54B ex-2022 anomaly, tracking revenue growth — cash generation is scaling with the business.
Concerns 3
m60
Leveraged balance sheet
Net debt of 9.00B against 297M liquid cash; short-term debt of 705M exceeds cash. Altman Z of 2.74 sits in grey zone. Serviceable given 2.54B FCF but leaves no cushion.
m30
Buybacks barely offset SBC
Repurchases recover only 72.4% of SBC — capital return to shareholders via buyback is not a real feature; capital is being deployed into acquisitions instead.
m25
Acquisition-dependent growth
Organic vs inorganic split is not visible in the data; 8% top-line growth on a roll-up model requires continuous M&A execution and integration quality that can only be verified in filings.
This is a high-quality business — the numbers read exactly like a mature software-heavy compounder should: fat, stable gross margins, clean cash conversion, no earnings-quality funny business, and dilution that is a rounding error. What keeps me from calling it a fortress is the balance sheet: 9B of net debt is the price of the roll-up strategy, and with short-term debt above cash there is zero slack, only FCF. That is fine when 2.54B is rolling in the door, but it means the quality of this business is contingent on continued deal execution and interest-rate tolerance. Strong, not elite.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Nature of the 2022 net income spike to 4.54B (likely industrial divestitures) and whether continuing ops trajectory is cleaner than headline
  • Organic vs acquired revenue growth split — is the 8% CAGR meaningfully organic?
  • Debt maturity schedule and refinancing calendar given 705M short-term debt vs 297M cash
  • Segment-level margins and customer concentration across the software portfolio (Deltek, Aderant, Vertafore, etc.)
  • Goodwill and intangibles as % of assets and any impairment history
  • Capital allocation policy going forward — M&A cadence vs deleveraging vs return of capital
Valuation / Mispricing
-64
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 96 · conf 6/10
Price $411.79 vs deserved ~$175 composite (EPV floor $171); ~58% overpriced even before demanding a margin of safety. attractive below $260.00

The e2e composite pins deserved value at $171 and the signal-adjusted read at $175, implying roughly 58% downside from the $411.79 tape. Even generously grossing that up for the quality lens (Strong, fat software margins, clean cash conversion) and the 9B net debt already embedded in enterprise value, the gap is too wide to hand-wave. The EPV-floor anchor is telling: even a floor method lands nowhere near the price, which means the market is paying for continued accretive M&A and durable organic growth, not for the earnings the portfolio produces today. What is priced in: mid-to-high single digit organic growth indefinitely, sustained software-like margins across newly acquired assets, and disciplined capital allocation that keeps compounding ROIC despite a leveraged balance sheet. That is the bull case as base case, with no margin of safety for M&A missteps, integration slippage, or multiple compression in a higher-rate world. Earnings quality is good, so no haircut there - but good earnings quality does not justify paying ~2.4x deserved value. This is the classic 'great business, full price' setup: nothing screams sell, nothing whispers buy.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality argues deserved value above the models
Strong quality grade, elite gross margins, clean cash conversion and negligible dilution justify a premium to EPV - but a reasonable premium is 20-40%, not 140%.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Composite fair value ~58% below price
Signal-adjusted FV $174.65 vs $411.79 tape. Even if the DCF underweights software durability, the EPV floor at $171 corroborates - multiple methods agree the price is well above earned value.
m55
Priced for uninterrupted M&A compounding
At ~$40.7B market cap plus ~$9B net debt, EV sits near $50B against a business the models value at roughly $17B equity. The delta is effectively capitalized future acquisitions - a heroic assumption at current rates.
m35
Leverage narrows the safety net
9B net debt with short-term debt above cash means any hiccup in cash conversion or credit markets pressures both the M&A engine and the multiple simultaneously.
This is a good business at a price that already assumes the good business keeps getting better forever. I do not short quality compounders, but I also do not pay 2.4x deserved value for one. I would need ROP in the mid-$200s before the risk/reward flips - closer to a 30-40% margin of safety against the composite FV. At $411 my job is to say 'pass, revisit lower' and mean it.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Organic (ex-M&A) revenue growth by segment in latest 10-Q
  • Cash from ops less capex trend vs reported EBITDA for quality of the compounding story
  • Incremental margins on recent acquisitions to test whether the software premium is sustaining
  • Interest coverage and floating-rate exposure in the debt stack
General Sentiment
-30
Balanced
tail √Σ 41 · head √Σ 72 · conf 6/10

The macro backdrop is a modest risk-on tilt with VIX at 15 and the S&P just 1.6% off highs, which is a mild tailwind for equities broadly. But ROP is a low-beta (0.74), defensive software compounder - the risk-on impulse barely touches it, and it has been underperforming the tape per the analyst-target news item, meaning the rising tide is not lifting this boat. Rates at 4.69% and a market PE of 25.7 are a real crosswind for a name whose entire premium rests on multi-decade DCF assumptions and serial M&A funded partly by debt (D/E drifting 0.36 to 0.47). The narrative is the key variable: 'platform-monopoly compounder' is still intact and strong in intensity, but durability is only moderate and the cult factor medium - this is not a story stock with a fanbase defending it, it is an institutional quality-compounder trade. Recent news flow is thin and mostly noise (two items are actually about Roche, ticker confusion), leaving analysts 'moderately optimistic' but not pounding the table. Momentum is neutral with a 3pp deceleration over three years - exactly the kind of subtle organic-growth erosion that eats compounder multiples slowly. Net: no acute pressure either way, but the asymmetry is unfavorable - little narrative fuel to push higher, real vulnerability if rates back up or an M&A print disappoints.

Tailwinds 2
m22
Mild risk-on tape
VIX 15 and indices near highs give a small tailwind to equities, but with beta 0.74 and defensive positioning ROP captures little of it.
m35
Compounder narrative still intact
The platform-monopoly / Berkshire-of-software story remains strong in intensity and gives institutional holders a reason to sit tight, providing a floor on sentiment.
Headwinds 4
m45
Rates pressure long-duration compounders
10y at 4.69% and market PE 25.7 are a persistent headwind for a name whose valuation is 70% narrative premium on terminal-value math; ROP is exactly the profile that gets re-rated first if yields grind higher.
m40
Underperformance and decelerating organic growth
Explicitly flagged as underperforming the market, with 3pp growth deceleration over three years - the compounder narrative erodes quietly when organic growth fades, and analyst tone is only 'moderately optimistic'.
m30
No active catalyst, thin news flow
Recent news is dominated by ticker-collision items about Roche; ROP itself has no fresh narrative fuel, leaving sentiment drifting rather than accelerating.
m25
Rising leverage into an M&A-dependent model
D/E moving 0.36 to 0.47 subtly raises the stakes on capital-allocation execution; any stumble in a deal or integration would hit sentiment disproportionately given the premium multiple.
Net read is roughly balanced with a slight negative tilt. The macro tape is benign but this low-beta defensive does not benefit from risk-on, and the compounder narrative - while still intact - is quietly losing altitude as organic growth decelerates and leverage creeps up. There is no acute pressure, no story collapse, no mania - just a slow drift where the multiple has to defend itself against rising rates and fading momentum with no fresh catalyst. Sentiment is not the reason to buy or sell this name today, but it offers no cushion either.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Next quarterly organic growth print - a further deceleration would crack the compounder narrative
  • Any large M&A announcement and how the tape receives it (accretion math vs leverage optics)
  • 10y Treasury behavior - a move above 5% would pressure long-duration quality names first
  • Analyst target revisions - watch for downgrades from the current 'moderately optimistic' consensus
  • Sector rotation signals - if defensive quality software falls out of favor for cyclicals or AI beneficiaries
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+0
Growing
edge √Σ 106 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10

The world is paying more, not less, for regulated workflow software: compliance burden, digitization of mid-market verticals and data-network effects all favour owners of embedded systems of record. That backdrop keeps Roper's revenue base sticky and price-escalating. Against it, two forces push the other way: capital costs (10y 4.69%) raise the bar on the acquisition engine that supplies half of reported growth, and AI is redistributing category growth toward platforms selling new capability rather than incumbents selling incumbency. Roper's outcome is therefore less about demand existing and more about whether it can keep buying growth at acceptable returns while organic holds mid-single digits.

Growth drivers 4
m68
Recurring, mission-critical vertical software base
Majority of revenue is subscription/recurring in regulated niches (insurance workflow, healthcare compliance, education administration, freight data) where switching costs are high and annual price escalators are contractual. This is what produces the low volatility in the measured record (0.0084 volatility, all years positive) and makes 8-10% top-line durable rather than order-dependent.
m60
Serial capital deployment engine
Roper's structural growth = mid-single-digit organic + acquired revenue. The measured +9.9% revenue YoY against a decelerating organic trend implies M&A is carrying several points. Balance-sheet-funded, asset-light targets in fragmented verticals; this is the single most reliable mechanism keeping total growth in double digits.
m46
Category in genuine expansion
Application software category median recent growth 18.3%, industry 3-year revenue CAGR 19.1% with margins expanding industry-wide (+8.8pp op, +6.2pp net). A rising vertical-SaaS tide supports pricing, net retention and seat/usage expansion even for a below-average grower.
m30
Consistent modest EPS overdelivery
Last five prints beat estimates (+1%, +3%, +6%, +2%; one large distorted quarter). Suggests conservative guidance-setting and controlled cost structure — the near-term print risk is skewed slightly upward.
Growth risks 5
m58
Share loss inside a faster category
Recent YoY 12.3% vs industry 18.7% — a -6.5pp gap. Roper participates in software growth but is not winning it; its verticals (education, freight, government) grow slower than the AI/cloud-heavy parts of the category. Structural, not fixable by cost action.
m54
Organic deceleration
Quarterly trend flagged decelerating; momentum neutral (0). Revenue YoY has drifted from the 13.1% multi-year CAGR toward ~10%. If organic slips to low single digits, total growth becomes almost entirely M&A-dependent.
m50
Earnings power lagging revenue
Earnings CAGR 5.35% vs revenue CAGR 13.1%, and recent earnings YoY -0.8% before the distorted +136.5% comp (a base-effect, not an earnings inflection). Acquisition amortization, deal costs and interest at a 4.69% 10-year absorb much of the top-line compounding.
m43
M&A dependence meets higher cost of capital
With rates elevated and macro headwinds, deal hurdle rates rise and asset prices in vertical SaaS remain firm. A pause in deployment, or one poorly-integrated large deal, directly removes points of reported growth.
m23
AI intermediation of workflow software
Some Roper assets are data/workflow toll-booths (freight matching, document and compliance workflow) where AI agents could compress seat counts or disintermediate lookup value. Regulated data moats blunt this, but seat-based pricing is exposed.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y unknown
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -8.2% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, ROP was $411.79. We expect it to be $378.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $260.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.

Price when predicted$411.79
Our estimate for Feb 2027$378.00-8.2%
Great value below$260.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06