Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$105.59
6-month call
Bear -14.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$90.00
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-14.8% to $90.00
Predicted High
$107.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$90.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:54 am
Bear
SBUX trends lower to
$90.00
(-14.8% from $105.59)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisNiccol turnaround narrative and recent Q3 comp beat sustain momentum near-term, but extreme valuation (composite FV ~$37 vs $105 price) and quality/forensic concerns exert gradual gravity over 6 months as story fatigue sets in without a scheduled catalyst.
Invalidated ifA confirmed re-acceleration in comps on next print or breakout above $115 on volume would invalidate the fade; conversely a break below $95 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $105.59 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $105.59 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $101.02–$110.16 typical range · internal point $106.80 | — | ±4.3% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry recent strength |
| What actually happened: closed $107.06 on Aug 21, 2026 = +1.4% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.3%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $98.96–$112.22 typical range · internal point $107.50 | — | ±6.3% | 5/10 | Narrative intact, no catalyst, drift higher |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $104.00 | — | -1.5% | 4/10 | Story fatigue begins as next print approaches |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $100.50 | — | -4.8% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity meets pre-earnings de-risking |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $97.00 | — | -8.1% | 5/10 | Post-print reality check on mature-brand growth |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $93.50 | — | -11.4% | 5/10 | Quality and forensic concerns pressure multiple |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $90.00 | — | -14.8% | 5/10 | Continued mean reversion toward deserved value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $80.15 (-24.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $105.59 |
| Composite fair value | $36.84 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $37.02 |
| DCF fair value | $38.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $36.02 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -16 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 20.1% 3m 21.7% 6m 27.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.07 3m -0.14 5m 0.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 9.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SBUX-20260808-000712-842f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SBUX-20260808-004135-a0c8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SBUX-20260808-004135-a0c8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SBUX-20260808-004135-a0c8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SBUX-20260808-004135-a0c8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SBUX-20260808-000712-842f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SBUX-20260808-000712-842f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $105.59 | $90.00 | -14.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 6, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.