Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$197.00
6-month call
Bear -12.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$172.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.7% to $172.00
Predicted High
$198.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$172.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:06 am
Bear
SCCO trends lower to
$172.00
(-12.7% from $197.00)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSCCO trades far above every reasonable fair value anchor ($85-$156), with negative sentiment and a fading copper super-cycle narrative pressing on a stock that already ran 289%. High beta (3.06) in a risk-on tape can keep it buoyant near-term, but value gravity and the 'fully valued' chorus should bleed the price lower over the 6-month window, though not all the way to fair value.
Invalidated ifA break and hold above $215 on copper strength, or a decisive risk-off tape driving SCCO below $170 quickly, would falsify this gradual fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $197.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $197.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $174.65–$219.35 typical range · internal point $198.50 | — | ±11.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports high-beta name near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $194.68 on Aug 19, 2026 = -1.2% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±11.3%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $164.61–$229.39 typical range · internal point $195.00 | — | ±16.4% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls as valuation chorus grows louder |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $188.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Copper narrative fatigue, mean-reversion pressure begins |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $182.00 | — | -7.6% | 6/10 | Value gravity pulls toward anchored-PE zone |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $178.00 | — | -9.6% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, profit-taking on 289% run |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $174.00 | — | -11.7% | 4/10 | January reset, high-beta unwind if regime shifts |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $172.00 | — | -12.7% | 4/10 | Continued drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $175.25 (-11.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $197.00 |
| Composite fair value | $85.05 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $93.67 |
| DCF fair value | $69.77 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $156.01 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +63 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 52.4% 3m 56.9% 6m 57.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.70 3m 3.06 5m 2.84 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | SCCO-20260806-000518-4c55 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260806-005228-0b2e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260806-005228-0b2e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260806-005228-0b2e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260806-005228-0b2e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | SCCO-20260806-000518-4c55 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | SCCO-20260806-000518-4c55 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $197.00 | $172.00 | -12.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $171.26 | $156.25 | -8.8% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.