Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$123.30
6-month call
Bear -12.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$108.00
Great value below
$70.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.4% to $108.00
Predicted High
$128.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$108.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:47 am
Bear
SHOP trends lower to
$108.00
(-12.4% from $123.30)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSHOP trades at ~5x fair value but momentum, AI-payments narrative, and risk-on tape support near-term drift higher before value gravity reasserts. Expect a modest ride-then-fade over the six-month window, ending well above baseline fair value but below current levels as multiple compression bites.
Invalidated ifA break above 140 on sustained volume or below 105 would invalidate the mild-fade path; regime flip to risk-off accelerates downside.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $123.30 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $123.30 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $107.23–$139.37 typical range · internal point $126.50 | — | ±13.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and AI-payments narrative extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $147.32 on Aug 19, 2026 = +19.5% vs the call (predicted +2.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 16.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $100.01–$146.59 typical range · internal point $128.00 | — | ±18.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment momentum peaks absent earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $124.00 | — | +0.6% | 5/10 | Narrative cools, valuation concerns re-enter conversation |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $118.00 | — | -4.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print looms, positioning trims into event |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $114.00 | — | -7.5% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, multiple compression begins |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $112.00 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from expensive high-beta names |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $108.00 | — | -12.4% | 3/10 | Value gravity slowly pulls toward deterministic baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $104.51 (-15.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $123.30 |
| Composite fair value | $20.37 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $20.63 |
| DCF fair value | $23.57 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $70.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 57.9% 3m 65.4% 6m 63.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.39 3m 0.54 5m 1.24 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | SHOP-20260805-003116-02af |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHOP-20260805-013118-c371 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHOP-20260805-013118-c371 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHOP-20260805-013118-c371 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHOP-20260805-013118-c371 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | SHOP-20260805-003116-02af |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | SHOP-20260805-003116-02af |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $123.30 | $108.00 | -12.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.