Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$1,288.03
6-month call
Bear -31.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$885.00
Great value below
$850.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-31.3% to $885.00
Predicted High
$1,335.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$885.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-31.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:17 am
Bear
SNDK trends lower to
$885.00
(-31.3% from $1,288.03)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSNDK has ripped 123% over six months on the AI-memory/HBF narrative but just took a 47% July drawdown, revealing extreme fragility at beta ~5. With value lens flashing deeply negative (attractive only below $850) and no earnings catalyst to defend the price, I expect a bounce-fade pattern: brief risk-on rally, then multi-month mean reversion toward the $850-950 zone as narrative crowding unwinds.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $1450 on strong HBF order news, or a regime flip to risk-off accelerating the decline below $700 early, would break this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,288.03 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $1,288.03 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $940.60–$1,635.46 typical range · internal point $1,335.00 | — | ±27.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and oversold bounce lift high-beta name |
| What actually happened: closed $1,786.85 on Aug 17, 2026 = +38.7% vs the call (predicted +3.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 35.1 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±27.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $784.55–$1,791.51 typical range · internal point $1,310.00 | — | ±39.1% | 5/10 | Rally stalls as sellers use strength to exit |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $1,180.00 | — | -8.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity reasserts; no catalyst to hold bid |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $1,050.00 | — | -18.5% | 5/10 | Narrative crowding unwinds; forensic concerns weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $960.00 | — | -25.5% | 4/10 | Drift toward value-lens attractive zone continues |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $900.00 | — | -30.1% | 4/10 | Approaches 850 threshold where dip-buyers emerge |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $885.00 | — | -31.3% | 3/10 | Stabilizes near fair-value gravity ahead of next print |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,288.03 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -12 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 152.5% 3m 135.4% 6m 118.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 8.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 6.96 3m 4.87 5m 4.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 123.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | SNDK-20260804-000624-6fe6 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNDK-20260804-005942-bddd |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNDK-20260804-005942-bddd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNDK-20260804-005942-bddd |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNDK-20260804-005942-bddd |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | SNDK-20260804-000624-6fe6 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | SNDK-20260804-000624-6fe6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $1,288.03 | $885.00 | -31.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 30, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.