Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$23.10
6-month call
Bear -13.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$20.10
Great value below
$17.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.0% to $20.10
Predicted High
$23.90
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$20.10
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:07 am
Bear
SONY trends lower to
$20.10
(-13.0% from $23.10)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSony rides bullish sentiment and momentum near-term after the raised outlook and 10.9% weekly rally, but value gravity pulls it back toward the mid-teens fair value over the six-month window as the euphoria fades and no near-term catalyst refreshes the bid.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $25.50 with continued analyst upgrades, or a break below $19 before month 3, would falsify this arc.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $23.10 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $23.10 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $21.46–$24.74 typical range · internal point $23.65 | — | ±7.1% | 7/10 | Momentum and bullish chorus extend post-rally |
| What actually happened: closed $23.58 on Aug 20, 2026 = +2.1% vs the call (predicted +2.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.1%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $20.72–$25.48 typical range · internal point $23.90 | — | ±10.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment peak with risk-on tape supporting |
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $23.20 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | Rally digestion begins, momentum cools |
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $22.30 | — | -3.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $21.40 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Fade continues absent fresh catalyst |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $20.60 | — | -10.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $20.10 | — | -13.0% | 3/10 | Settles near baseline, still above deserved value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $20.18 (-12.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $23.10 |
| Composite fair value | $17.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $16.23 |
| DCF fair value | $12.27 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $32.80 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $17.50 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -2 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.4% 3m 35.7% 6m 33.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.83 3m 0.14 5m 0.58 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 5.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | SONY-20260807-000819-8687 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-SONY-20260807-005507-d331 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-SONY-20260807-005507-d331 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-SONY-20260807-005507-d331 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-SONY-20260807-005507-d331 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | SONY-20260807-000819-8687 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | SONY-20260807-000819-8687 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $23.10 | $20.10 | -13.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.