Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$408.17
6-month call
Neutral -4.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$389.00
Great value below
$330.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.7% to $389.00
Predicted High
$405.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$389.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:53 am
Neutral
SPGI trends range-bound to
$389.00
(-4.7% from $408.17)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisSPGI trades well above composite fair value with a recent earnings-driven drawdown and priced-for-perfection sentiment capping upside, but a risk-on tape and durable franchise quality prevent sharp mean reversion; expect a modest drift lower toward the deterministic baseline with mild interim stabilization.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above 430 on volume, or a break below 375 signaling deeper de-rating, would falsify this range-bound-drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $408.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $408.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $380.66–$435.68 typical range · internal point $405.50 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Post-earnings drift lingers, risk-on tape limits downside |
| What actually happened: closed $431.04 on Aug 21, 2026 = +5.6% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $368.31–$448.03 typical range · internal point $402.00 | — | ±9.8% | 6/10 | Priced-for-perfection chatter caps bounce attempts |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $398.50 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins to weigh with no catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $395.00 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning cautious, regime still supportive |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $399.00 | — | -2.2% | 4/10 | Year-end quality bid stabilizes shares near baseline |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $393.00 | — | -3.7% | 4/10 | January reset, valuation overhang reasserts modestly |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $389.00 | — | -4.7% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline as sentiment fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $389.15 (-4.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $408.17 |
| Composite fair value | $272.32 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $328.38 |
| DCF fair value | $262.00 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $432.61 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $330.00 |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +71 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.1% 3m 33.8% 6m 33.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.09 3m -0.10 5m 0.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SPGI-20260808-000712-fa42 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPGI-20260808-004135-848f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPGI-20260808-004135-848f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPGI-20260808-004135-848f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPGI-20260808-004135-848f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SPGI-20260808-000712-fa42 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SPGI-20260808-000712-fa42 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $408.17 | $389.00 | -4.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $447.22 | $432.59 | -3.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.