Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$224.19
6-month call
Bear -11.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$199.00
Great value below
$175.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.2% to $199.00
Predicted High
$223.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$199.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:11 pm
Bear
STE trends lower to
$199.00
(-11.2% from $224.19)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisSTE trades well above composite fair value ($159) with a negative value lens, but low-beta defensive character and absence of near-term catalysts limit downside speed. Expect mild drift lower toward the signal-adjusted anchor ($189) over the six months as value gravity slowly asserts, with the deterministic baseline overstating stickiness.
Invalidated ifA break above $235 on volume or reclaim of momentum, or a surprise M&A/guidance raise, would falsify the slow-fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $224.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $224.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $211.98–$236.40 typical range · internal point $223.00 | — | ±5.4% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, mild risk-on tape |
| What actually happened: closed $208.04 on Sep 17, 2026 = -7.2% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $206.49–$241.89 typical range · internal point $220.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Defensive lag as rates pressure bond proxies |
| What actually happened: closed $208.54 on Oct 2, 2026 = -7.0% vs the call (predicted -1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $216.00 | — | -3.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $212.00 | — | -5.4% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from expensive defensives |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $208.50 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | January reset, tax-loss reversal muted here |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $204.00 | — | -9.0% | 4/10 | Earnings window approaches, derating continues |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $199.00 | — | -11.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted anchor near 189 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $213.82 (-4.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $224.19 |
| Composite fair value | $158.92 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $189.16 |
| DCF fair value | $136.26 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $301.87 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $175.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +69 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.0% 3m 27.3% 6m 26.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.17 3m -0.02 5m 0.23 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | STE-20260904-043001-d687 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-STE-20260904-045953-5208 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-STE-20260904-045953-5208 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-STE-20260904-045953-5208 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-STE-20260904-045953-5208 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | STE-20260904-043001-d687 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | STE-20260904-043001-d687 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $224.19 | $199.00 | -11.2% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.