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OLDER Analysis Report
Sep 4, 2026
33 days ago · 100% complete
This report is 33 days old — newer filings and price moves since then are not reflected.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for STERIS plc (STE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Watch · Gem Score -11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 69 · Value -65 · Sentiment -8 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $163.14 vs $226.83 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

STERIS plc

STE NYSE
Healthcare · Medical Devices
Mentor, OH 44060, United States steris.com Updated Sep 4, 4:39am
Price
$226.83
Market Cap
$22.1B
Employees
17,937
Beta
0.91
Avg Volume
693,978
Last Dividend
$2.46
CEO
Mr. Daniel A. Carestio

STERIS plc is a healthcare and life sciences company that provides infection prevention, contamination control, and procedural products and services. The company offers a broad portfolio that includes sterilizers, surgical tables, endoscopy accessories, cleaning chemistries, instrument and scope repair, laboratory testing, and outsourced reprocessing services. Its operations support hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers, and research laboratories. STERIS plc also serves biopharmaceutical and life sciences customers with contamination-control equipment, sterilization technologies, and related maintenance services. Through its mix of consumables, capital equipment, and recurring service offerings, the company plays an important role in helping healthcare and production environments maintain sterile conditions and support patient care across global markets.

Runs with full report Generated: Sep 4, 2026 4:45am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$226.83
as of Sep 4, 4:30am (33d ago)
Change · Sep 4
-3.52 (-1.53%)
Day Range
$225.90 – $233.28
52-Week Range
$195.14 – $269.44
50-Day MA
$225.04
200-Day MA
$233.05
Volume
519,700.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 33d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 97,457,680.00
Float 97,082,810.00
Free Float 99.6%
High free float — 99.6% of shares trade freely, ~0.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 4, 2026 4:59am (33d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 4, 2026 4:45am (33d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Sep 4, 2026 4:42am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
28.60
Stock Price: $226.83
EPS (Diluted): 7.93
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.11
Stock Price: $226.83
Total Equity: $7.20B
Shares: 98,700,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.96
Market Cap: $22.12B
Total Debt: $1.93B
Cash: $439.60M
EBITDA: $1.59B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$23.8B
Market Cap: $22.12B
Total Debt: $1.93B
Cash: $439.60M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
44.2%
Gross Profit: $2.63B
Revenue: $5.94B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
18.6%
Operating Income: $1.10B
Revenue: $5.94B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
13.2%
Net Income: $782.30M
Revenue: $5.94B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
10.9%
Net Income: $782.30M
Total Equity: $7.20B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.5%
Operating Income: $1.10B
Tax Rate: 25.0%
Equity: $7.20B
Total Debt: $1.93B
Cash: $439.60M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.09
Current Assets: $2.39B
Current Liabilities: $1.15B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.27
Short-Term Debt: $118.90M
Long-Term Debt: $1.81B
Total Debt: $1.93B
Total Equity: $7.20B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$60.14
Revenue: $5.94B
Shares: 98,700,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$72.92
Total Equity: $7.20B
Shares: 98,700,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$9.85
Operating CF: $1.34B
CapEx: -$369.00M
Shares: 98,700,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.1%
Last Dividend: $2.46
Stock Price: $226.83
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
30.9%
Dividends Paid: -$241.80M
Net Income: $782.30M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 4, 2026 4:42am
Compares STE against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 4, 2026 4:45am (33d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $4.6B $5.0B $5.1B $5.5B $5.9B
Cost of Revenue $2.6B $2.8B $2.9B $3.1B $3.3B
Gross Profit $2.0B $2.2B $2.2B $2.4B $2.6B
Operating Expenses $1.6B $1.9B $1.4B $1.5B $1.5B
Operating Income $425.6M $268.2M $836.1M $866.6M $1.1B
Net Income $243.9M $107.0M $378.2M $614.6M $782.3M
EBITDA $978.7M $821.1M $1.4B $1.3B $1.6B
EPS $2.50 $1.07 $3.83 $6.24 $7.97
EPS (Diluted) $2.48 $1.07 $3.81 $6.20 $7.93
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 4, 2026 4:30am (33d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $348.3M $208.4M $207.0M $171.7M $439.6M
Total Current Assets $1.9B $2.0B $2.9B $2.0B $2.4B
Total Assets $11.4B $10.8B $11.1B $10.1B $10.7B
Current Liabilities $922.2M $861.8M $931.1M $1.0B $1.1B
Long-Term Debt $2.9B $3.0B $3.1B $1.9B $1.8B
Total Liabilities $4.9B $4.7B $4.7B $3.5B $3.5B
Total Equity $6.5B $6.1B $6.3B $6.6B $7.2B
Retained Earnings $2.0B $1.9B $2.1B $2.5B $3.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 4, 2026 4:59am (33d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $684.8M $756.9M $973.3M $1.1B $1.3B
Capital Expenditure -$287.6M -$362.0M -$360.3M -$370.1M -$369.0M
Free Cash Flow $397.2M $395.0M $612.9M $778.0M $972.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$550.4M -$42.6M -$546.3M -$54.1M -$20.1M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $650.0M $0 $0 — —
Dividends Paid -$163.2M -$183.5M -$200.6M -$219.9M -$241.8M
Stock Buybacks -$55.8M -$308.6M -$11.8M -$211.3M -$235.5M
Net Change in Cash $127.8M -$140.0M -$1.3M -$35.3M $267.9M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 4, 2026 4:45am (33d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +8.1% +3.6% +6.2% +8.7%
Gross Profit Growth +7.1% +2.7% +8.3% +9.3%
Operating Income Growth -37.0% +211.8% +3.7% +27.1%
Net Income Growth -56.1% +253.4% +62.5% +27.3%
EBITDA Growth -16.1% +70.7% -4.2% +18.3%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 31, 2026 6:28pm (37d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-08 $0.63 — — —
2026-02-17 $0.63 — — —
2025-09-04 $0.63 — — —
2025-06-10 $0.57 — — —
2025-02-20 $0.57 — — —
2024-11-19 $0.57 — — —
2024-09-05 $0.57 — — —
2024-06-12 $0.52 — — —
2024-02-22 $0.52 — — —
2023-11-20 $0.52 — — —
2023-09-05 $0.52 — — —
2023-06-13 $0.47 — — —
2023-02-23 $0.47 — — —
2022-11-21 $0.47 — — —
2022-09-06 $0.47 — — —
2022-06-13 $0.43 — — —
2022-02-24 $0.43 — — —
2021-11-22 $0.43 — — —
2021-09-02 $0.43 — — —
2021-05-27 $0.40 — — —
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-08 02:02
-0.8 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -49%; a −1σ run costs 62%. Ratio -0.8:1 (μ 7.4%, σ 3.0% floored by absolute, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($226.83)
Bull — recovery +11% 17.3% $138.18 -39%
Base — stabilizes +7% 15.0% $108.29 -52%
Bear — keeps slipping +4% 12.8% $83.25 -63%
Stress — last quarter repeats +7% 14.4% $104.24 -54%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +10% 14.7% $116.39 -49%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +4% 12.9% $85.57 -62%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the most recent ones — growth stays at 7.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.08). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +7.3% · operating income +16.2% · net income +12.8% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for STE — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-04 05:37

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing A recurring-revenue infection-prevention compounder growing mid-to-high single digits with operating leverage (OI +16% on revenue +7.3%), tracking essentially with its category — durable, but nowhere near the ~24% growth the current price mathematically assumes. conf 8/10
Inline with category Category growing · Medical devices/infection-prevention category is growing (industry revenue 6.2% 3-yr CAGR; category median recent growth 8.5%) but entering a slowdown phase. STERIS revenue +7.3% YoY sits above the industry CAGR and marginally below the category's recent median — i.e. it is riding the tide at roughly category pace, while converting better than the category on margin (OI +16.2% against industry-wide net-margin compression of -2.5pp).
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Recurring consumables and service revenue plus AST pricing should carry organic growth in the 5-8% range with continued margin realization; the most recent print beat by 4%. Equipment shipments and FX are the swing factors, and the decelerating quarterly trend argues against re-acceleration.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year shape looks like mid-to-high single-digit constant-currency revenue growth with high-single to low-double-digit EPS growth, driven by the annuity base and AST leverage. Sector slowdown and hospital capital caution cap the top end; the recurring mix caps the downside.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Structurally the earnings power compounds: regulatory moats in contract sterilization, requalification switching costs, and a consumables base that re-prices. But the ceiling is set by procedure-volume growth plus price — call it mid single digits on revenue and high single to low double digits on earnings, not more. EtO regulation is the main structural threat to the best segment.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
69 Recurring consumables + service annuity — The majority of STERIS revenue is consumables, chemistries, instrument/scope repair and outsourced reprocessing tied to procedure volumes rather than hospital capex cycles. Procedure volumes have been running above pre-2020 levels, and this base re-prices annually. That is why revenue volatility is only 1.2% with all years positive — the growth is mechanically sticky, not order-book dependent.
59 AST (contract sterilization) capacity and pricing — Applied Sterilization Technologies is an oligopoly (STERIS, Sotera) with high regulatory switching costs; med-device customers cannot easily requalify a sterilization site. That supports low-double-digit pricing-plus-volume growth and sector-leading segment margins, and it is the single largest contributor to the operating-income leverage now visible (+16.2% OI on +7.3% revenue).
53 Margin expansion running ahead of revenue — Operating income growing more than 2x revenue and net income +12.8% indicates price/cost realization, productivity and post-divestiture mix (Dental exit) rather than volume heroics. Earnings CAGR of 43.8% flatters off a depressed base, but the direction — earnings power compounding faster than the top line — is intact and notable against an industry seeing -2.5pp net-margin compression.
30 Healthcare capital equipment replacement + ASC buildout — Sterilizers, surgical tables and washers benefit from a delayed replacement cycle and ongoing ambulatory-surgery-center construction, which also pulls consumables and service attach. This is the cyclical portion of the mix and provides upside optionality if hospital capital budgets loosen.
Growth risks
38 Ethylene oxide regulatory and litigation overhang — EtO emissions rules and tort exposure at sterilization facilities can force capex, capacity idling or settlements. STERIS has less exposure than peers but any site disruption directly hits the highest-margin segment; this is the clearest tail risk to the AST growth engine.
45 Quarterly trend decelerating within a slowing sector — Revenue confidence flags a decelerating quarterly trend, and the sector demand cycle reads slowdown (score -1). Company growth of 7.3% now sits just under the category median of 8.5%, implying no share tailwind — growth likely settles toward the mid single digits rather than re-accelerating.
30 Hospital capital budget and tariff/input pressure — Macro headwinds with 10y at 4.79% raise hospital financing costs and can defer large equipment orders; industry-wide margin compression (-2.5pp/3yr) shows pricing is not free. Equipment is the swing factor in any quarter's miss.
60 Price-implied bar far above business capability — Reverse-DCF implies 24.3% growth versus a demonstrated 7.5% revenue CAGR. Nothing in the mix — annuity consumables, oligopoly sterilization, replacement capex — plausibly compounds at that rate; the structural gap is the dominant expectations risk, not a business-deterioration risk.
17 Lumpy GAAP prints — The estimate record shows a -211% EPS miss (Nov 2025) and a -26% miss on a low-EPS quarter, i.e. charges/divestiture noise and seasonality can badly distort single prints even while the underlying annuity grows.
The structural demand for sterilization and contamination control is non-discretionary and rises with procedure volumes, aging populations and med-device/biopharma output — a rare healthcare niche insulated from reimbursement deflation because the customer's alternative is regulatory non-compliance. Rate-driven macro headwinds bite the capital-equipment slice and can delay hospital orders, and the regulatory tightening around ethylene oxide is a real capex tax. Nothing in the AI or payer-pressure landscape intermediates STERIS's unit economics: sterilizing an implant remains a physical, licensed, site-specific service with requalification costs measured in years. Net read: a low-drama mid-single-to-high-single-digit compounder in a slowing but structurally growing category, with earnings power growing faster than revenue.
Growth position composite +18
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+18Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Claude Opus reviews the pipeline's raw data + every prior verdict, then writes an independent take.
No AI findings yet for STE — they're generated by the pipeline (ai-findings step) when a report is run on this ticker.
GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-04 04:58:59
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly overvalued at $226.83 — a great business, but I’d want closer to $195-$205 to underwrite attractive upside.

STERIS looks like a high-quality business that the market is valuing as if quality alone is enough. The operating story is genuinely good: annual revenue has climbed from $4.59B in FY2022 to $5.94B in FY2026, about 6.7% annualized, while operating income expanded from $425.6M to $1.10B and net income from $243.9M to $782.3M. More important than the raw growth is the normalization in profitability after the ugly FY2023 trough: operating margin recovered from 5.4% in 2023 to 16.3% in 2025 and 18.6% in 2026, with net margin now 13.2%. Quarterly numbers support that this is not a one-quarter spike. The last four quarters delivered revenue of $1.46B, $1.50B, $1.59B, and $1.49B, with net margins tightly grouped around 12.9%-13.9%. That consistency, plus $1.34B of operating cash flow and $972.4M of free cash flow in FY2026, says the core franchise is durable and cash generative.

The balance sheet is also better than the valuation implies it needs to be. Net debt is only about $1.49B against a $22.1B market cap, debt to equity is 0.27, and the current ratio is 2.09. This is not a stressed medtech roll-up needing heroic assumptions. Return metrics are respectable rather than spectacular — 10.9% ROE and 9.5% ROIC — but they are improving alongside margins. That matters because the stock is not a turnaround bet; it is being priced like a proven compounder. At $226.83, investors are paying 28.6x earnings, 15.0x EV/EBITDA, 3.77x sales, and only getting a roughly 4.4% FCF yield on market cap, or closer to 4% on enterprise value. For a business growing revenue high-single-digits and likely earnings low-to-mid teens as margins stabilize, that is not absurd, but it is full. The key issue is that the rerating has already happened: the jump from $614.6M to $782.3M in annual net income has been capitalized as though this new margin level is both durable and still has room to expand meaningfully.

What stands out to me is that the numbers argue for “excellent company, ordinary stock from here,” not for a clear undervaluation. The models calling it fully priced are directionally right even if their fair value outputs are too blunt. If I annualize the most recent quarter’s $200.1M of net income, I get about $800M, which is basically where trailing earnings already sit. That means today’s multiple is being applied to current, not depressed, earnings. Revenue growth also looks solid but not accelerating into something that deserves a premium above many other high-quality device names: quarterly year-over-year growth stepped from about 4.5% in the March 2025 quarter to 8.7% in June 2026, but sequentially the business still looks like a mature operator, not an emerging growth story. With gross margin at 44.3% and operating margin at 18.6%, there is probably some efficiency left, but not enough to justify paying materially above the current multiple unless revenue can sustain double-digit growth.

The best counterargument is that I may be underestimating how attractive this specific quality is. A smart bull would point to the recovery path: from FY2024 to FY2026, revenue rose 15.6% while operating income rose 31.6% and net income more than doubled from $378.2M to $782.3M. That is classic operating leverage. They would also argue that free cash flow of $972.4M against capex of $369.0M shows a business that can keep investing and still throw off nearly $1B a year, which supports bolt-on M&A, buybacks, and steady dividend growth. On that framing, 15x EBITDA is not expensive for a healthcare infrastructure asset with recurring service and consumables exposure, low leverage, and resilient demand. I get that case; I just think it works better as a defense of the current price than as a reason the shares are cheap. If this were 24x earnings or around 12x-13x EBITDA, I would lean bullish. At nearly 29x, you need both durability and another leg of growth.

What would change my mind is straightforward. I would turn more positive if STERIS can post another two to three quarters of 8%-10% revenue growth while holding net margin above 13% and converting that into annual free cash flow comfortably above $1.0B, because that would support a view that the current earnings base is still too low. I would also reassess if the stock fell into roughly the $190-$205 range without any deterioration in revenue or cash flow, since that would bring the earnings multiple closer to the mid-20s and make the quality/growth mix more attractive. On the other hand, if growth slips back toward 4%-6% while margins flatten around current levels, the premium multiple becomes hard to defend and the stock should de-rate.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-04 04:59:43
Verdict Quality mature compounder fully priced to expensive at $227; fair value nearer $185–200 given 7–9% growth and ~9.5% ROIC

STERIS prints the profile of a high-quality infection-prevention and sterilization franchise that has fully exited its 2023 earnings trough and is now compounding from a normalized base. Fiscal 2026 revenue of $5.94B grew 8.8% from $5.46B, with operating income jumping from $867M to $1.10B and net income from $615M to $782M; trailing net margin sits at 13.2% and operating margin at 18.6%, both multi-year highs. Free cash flow of $972M on only $369M of capex is the standout number—roughly a 16% FCF margin and a clean 4.4% yield at the $22.1B enterprise. Balance-sheet leverage is light (debt/equity 0.27, $1.93B debt against $7.2B equity), current ratio 2.1, and the dividend is comfortably covered at a 31% payout. Quarterly run-rate has stabilized in the $1.46–1.59B band with year-ago comparisons still positive mid-to-high single digits, confirming the business is not collapsing as pandemic-era volumes normalize.

The valuation, however, already capitalizes most of that recovery. At $226.83 the stock trades 28.6× trailing earnings, 15× EV/EBITDA and 3.8× sales while ROIC is only 9.5% and ROE 10.9%. A mature medical-infrastructure compounder growing revenue at a 7.5% CAGR and recent YoY of 8.7% does not ordinarily clear a late-20s earnings multiple unless investors are embedding another leg of margin expansion or acceleration that the quarterly series does not yet show. Revenue confidence is explicitly flagged as decelerating; the 43.8% earnings CAGR is an artifact of the 2023 trough ($107M NI) and will not repeat from today’s $782M base. Insider activity is noise—option exercises and awards with matching sales—so there is no insider endorsement of the current price. The rule-based “mature earner” label and the synthesis fair-value band around $189 are directionally correct: the market is paying for quality and defensibility that is real, but it is paying as if growth will stay elevated.

The strongest counter-argument is that STERIS is a sector-leader compounder with sticky hospital and life-science relationships, high switching costs, and genuine operating leverage still visible in the gross-to-operating margin stack (44% gross, 18.6% operating). Market-forces commentary correctly notes strengthening moats and above-market growth potential; if mid-teens FCF conversion persists and revenue re-accelerates even modestly above 8–9%, a 15× EV/EBITDA multiple is defensible for healthcare infrastructure and the stock can grind higher on multiple stability rather than expansion. Bulls will also note that the $189 composite embeds conservative growth assumptions and that FCF quality plus low leverage give management optionality for bolt-ons that historically have been value-accretive. Those points keep the overvaluation from being egregious—this is not a story stock or a balance-sheet risk—but they do not erase the fact that you are paying 29× for high-single-digit top-line growth and sub-10% ROIC.

I would flip to neutral or constructive only if the next two quarters show revenue re-acceleration above 10% YoY with operating margin holding or expanding past 19%, or if FCF runs sustainably above $1.1B while the multiple compresses toward 22–24× earnings on a pullback into the $190–200 zone. Conversely, a print of flat-to-down organic growth or margin give-back would confirm the deceleration thesis and justify a deeper de-rating.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 3.5; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.5 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.5 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-04 05:42:19
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
STERIS is a genuinely strong compounder trading about 17% above deserved value - a name to own on a pullback, not at $227.
The cruxWhether the premium multiple holds; at $227 you're paying tomorrow's fair value today, so the entry price - not the business - decides the return.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from STE's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+69
Strong
edge √Σ 135 · risk √Σ 51 · conf 8/10

STERIS shows a clean fundamental trajectory: revenue up from 4.59B in 2022 to 5.94B in 2026 (roughly 7% CAGR), gross margin steady around 44%, and operating margin expanding from 9.3% to 18.6% over four years. Net income more than tripled (243.9M to 782.3M) and FCF more than doubled (397.2M to 972.4M), with FCF consistently exceeding net income - the 2026 OCF/NI of 3.21x and accruals of -5.1% of assets point to genuine cash earnings, not accounting-driven ones. Beneish M of -2.68 and Altman Z of 5.17 corroborate clean books. Per-share value is protected: diluted shares essentially flat (98.3M to 98.7M), SBC only ~1% of revenue, and buybacks running 3x SBC. Insider tape is neutral - a single small option-exercise-and-sell by Sohi and routine director awards, nothing directional. The one real constraint is the balance sheet: net debt of ~1.49B versus only 439.6M liquid cash. With 972M of annual FCF this is comfortably serviceable, but it means the balance sheet is a working tool, not a cushion, and limits optionality in a downturn.

Strengths 4
m75
Operating margin doubled in four years
OpM expanded from 9.3% (2022) to 18.6% (2026) while gross margin held near 44%, indicating real operating leverage rather than mix-driven gains.
m70
High earnings quality
OCF/NI 3.21x, accruals -5.1% of assets, Beneish -2.68, Altman Z 5.17 - the mechanical checks all corroborate that reported earnings are backed by cash.
m65
Per-share discipline
Diluted share count essentially flat at ~99M for four years; SBC ~1% of revenue and buybacks 302% of SBC - shareholders are not being diluted.
m60
FCF scaling faster than revenue
FCF grew from 397M to 972M (~25% CAGR) versus ~7% revenue CAGR, a durable sign of quality growth.
Concerns 2
m45
Net debt of 1.49B against 440M cash
Balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion; comfortably serviced by ~972M FCF but leaves less optionality than a true fortress.
m25
2023 margin dip unexplained in data
OpM collapsed to 5.4% and NI to 107M in 2023 before rebounding - likely a one-time charge but the raw evidence does not confirm the cause.
This looks like a well-run, mature compounder in a durable niche (sterilization/infection prevention has structural demand). The financial story is coherent: revenue growing steadily, margins expanding meaningfully, cash conversion excellent, share count flat, forensic checks clean. I would not call it a fortress because of the net debt position, and I want to understand the 2023 margin air pocket, but nothing here suggests earnings management or per-share value destruction. This is a Strong business, comfortably above 75 but not close to the 87 tier that requires pristine balance sheets and unambiguous evidence.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Cause of the 2023 operating-margin collapse to 5.4% (impairment, litigation, or M&A-related charge?)
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants behind the 1.49B net debt
  • Segment mix and customer concentration in the healthcare/AST/life-sciences lines
  • Whether the FCF-to-NI gap reflects sustainable D&A/working capital dynamics or acquisition accounting
Valuation / Mispricing
-65
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 97 · conf 7/10
Price $226.83 vs deserved ~$189 (signal-adjusted) - roughly 17% above fair, negative margin of safety. attractive below $175.00

The composite fair value of $158.92 and signal-adjusted $189.16 both sit meaningfully below the $226.83 price, implying roughly 17% downside on the blended read. The DCF ($136) and EPV floor ($61) anchor deserved value in the $135-190 range for a business growing mid-single-digits with expanding margins; the anchored-PE output of $302 is the obvious outlier and looks like a runaway multiple extrapolation that I would not lean on. Earnings quality is high, so I do not haircut further, and the Strong business grade justifies pushing deserved value toward the upper end of the sane range - call it ~$190. What is priced in at $227: continued margin expansion, mid-to-high single digit revenue growth, no integration or leverage hiccup, and a premium multiple holding indefinitely. That is a reasonable base case for a durable sterilization franchise, but it leaves essentially zero cushion. This is the classic 'good business, full price' setup - not egregiously overvalued, but you are paying tomorrow's fair value today.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality supports the upper band
Strong quality (69), clean earnings, negligible dilution justify anchoring deserved value near the top of the DCF-to-signal range (~$190) rather than the middle.
Rich / priced-in 4
m62
Price above signal-adjusted FV
$226.83 vs $189.16 signal-adjusted FV = ~17% overshoot; composite FV of $158.92 implies ~30% downside.
m55
DCF says $136
The cash-flow-anchored DCF at $136.26 is ~40% below spot, suggesting the market is capitalizing an above-DCF growth/margin path.
m40
Premium multiple carries the price
Only the anchored-PE method ($301.87) supports today's price, and that method is the runaway outlier - it assumes the current premium multiple persists, which is the thing in question.
m30
EPV floor far below price
EPV of $61 shows how much of the market cap is growth/premium multiple rather than steady-state earnings power - a reminder of downside if growth stalls.
I like the business but I do not like the price. At $227 I am buying a deserved-value stock near $190 and hoping the premium multiple holds - that is not an edge, that is just paying up. The DCF at $136 and EPV at $61 tell me the downside if the growth story wobbles is real. I want this ~15-20% lower, in the mid-$170s, before it clears my bar; otherwise this is a watch, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward organic growth guidance vs the mid-to-high single digit path embedded in the DCF
  • Segment margin trajectory - is Healthcare margin expansion still running or plateauing
  • Any one-off items behind the 2023 margin dip and whether they are truly non-recurring
  • Leverage/interest cost trajectory and capital allocation between buybacks and debt paydown
General Sentiment
-8
Balanced
tail √Σ 39 · head √Σ 47 · conf 6/10

There is no cult story on STE right now. The news flow is anodyne - a Morgan Stanley healthcare conference appearance on Sep 15 and generic 'fairly valued' takes on the stock. That is neutral-to-slightly-constructive: a conference slot is a minor tailwind (management gets a mic, sell-side updates models) but it is not a narrative catalyst. Analyst tone reads as balanced, framing shares as near fair value rather than a screaming buy or a short. The regime backdrop is mixed for this specific name. The tape is nominally risk-on (VIX 14, near highs), which usually does little for a 0.91-beta med-device sterilization name - defensive healthcare underperforms when risk appetite is on. Offsetting that, the 10y at 4.79% and a market PE near 26 press on bond-proxy healthcare compounders like STE. Net: no dominant force, ordinary crosswinds in both directions, and momentum in the stock itself has been quietly positive - which is really the strongest sentiment signal here.

Tailwinds 3
m30
Quiet positive drift
Own price momentum is strong_positive with de-leveraging (D/E 0.51 to 0.27) - a low-drama tape reward for a boring compounder, and boring is being paid in this regime.
m20
Morgan Stanley conference slot Sep 15
Near-term visibility event; sell-side often refreshes notes and it gives management a platform. Small, real, positive nudge - not a catalyst.
m15
No active bear narrative
No tariff, GLP-1 disruption, or reimbursement story is hitting sterilization services. Absence of a bear narrative in this sector is itself a mild support.
Headwinds 3
m35
Rates pressure on defensive healthcare
10y at 4.79% and market PE ~26 weigh on bond-proxy, low-growth med-device names. STE's low beta does not insulate it from duration-like discount-rate pressure.
m25
Risk-on tape, wrong cohort
Nascent risk-on regime tends to rotate flows toward higher-beta cyclicals and AI names; a 0.91-beta sterilization compounder gets left behind rather than crushed.
m20
Analyst tone: 'fairly valued'
Recent coverage frames STE as close to fair value with cash flow 'slightly stretched' - not a de-rating call, but it caps upside enthusiasm and gives no one a reason to chase.
My read is genuinely balanced and I do not want to fake conviction. STE has no narrative - no bull cult, no bear story - and that is the whole story. The macro tape has two mild forces that roughly cancel: risk-on rotation pulls flows away from a low-beta defensive, while high rates cap the multiple, but neither is decisive on a name this quiet. The Morgan Stanley conference is the only near-term sentiment lever and it is a small one. Net: ordinary crosswinds, slightly leaning nowhere. If forced to pick, the quiet positive momentum plus zero active bear narrative earns a whisper of tailwind, but 'Balanced' is the honest label.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Tone and any guide-tweak from the Sep 15 Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference presentation
  • Whether sell-side price targets get revised up or down in the week after the conference
  • Any move in the 10y yield - a break above 5% would materially press defensive healthcare
  • Sector rotation flows: is money leaving med-devices for higher-beta healthcare (biotech, tools) as risk-on builds
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+18
Growing
edge √Σ 109 · risk √Σ 91 · conf 8/10

The structural demand for sterilization and contamination control is non-discretionary and rises with procedure volumes, aging populations and med-device/biopharma output — a rare healthcare niche insulated from reimbursement deflation because the customer's alternative is regulatory non-compliance. Rate-driven macro headwinds bite the capital-equipment slice and can delay hospital orders, and the regulatory tightening around ethylene oxide is a real capex tax. Nothing in the AI or payer-pressure landscape intermediates STERIS's unit economics: sterilizing an implant remains a physical, licensed, site-specific service with requalification costs measured in years. Net read: a low-drama mid-single-to-high-single-digit compounder in a slowing but structurally growing category, with earnings power growing faster than revenue.

Growth drivers 4
m69
Recurring consumables + service annuity
The majority of STERIS revenue is consumables, chemistries, instrument/scope repair and outsourced reprocessing tied to procedure volumes rather than hospital capex cycles. Procedure volumes have been running above pre-2020 levels, and this base re-prices annually. That is why revenue volatility is only 1.2% with all years positive — the growth is mechanically sticky, not order-book dependent.
m59
AST (contract sterilization) capacity and pricing
Applied Sterilization Technologies is an oligopoly (STERIS, Sotera) with high regulatory switching costs; med-device customers cannot easily requalify a sterilization site. That supports low-double-digit pricing-plus-volume growth and sector-leading segment margins, and it is the single largest contributor to the operating-income leverage now visible (+16.2% OI on +7.3% revenue).
m53
Margin expansion running ahead of revenue
Operating income growing more than 2x revenue and net income +12.8% indicates price/cost realization, productivity and post-divestiture mix (Dental exit) rather than volume heroics. Earnings CAGR of 43.8% flatters off a depressed base, but the direction — earnings power compounding faster than the top line — is intact and notable against an industry seeing -2.5pp net-margin compression.
m30
Healthcare capital equipment replacement + ASC buildout
Sterilizers, surgical tables and washers benefit from a delayed replacement cycle and ongoing ambulatory-surgery-center construction, which also pulls consumables and service attach. This is the cyclical portion of the mix and provides upside optionality if hospital capital budgets loosen.
Growth risks 5
m38
Ethylene oxide regulatory and litigation overhang
EtO emissions rules and tort exposure at sterilization facilities can force capex, capacity idling or settlements. STERIS has less exposure than peers but any site disruption directly hits the highest-margin segment; this is the clearest tail risk to the AST growth engine.
m45
Quarterly trend decelerating within a slowing sector
Revenue confidence flags a decelerating quarterly trend, and the sector demand cycle reads slowdown (score -1). Company growth of 7.3% now sits just under the category median of 8.5%, implying no share tailwind — growth likely settles toward the mid single digits rather than re-accelerating.
m30
Hospital capital budget and tariff/input pressure
Macro headwinds with 10y at 4.79% raise hospital financing costs and can defer large equipment orders; industry-wide margin compression (-2.5pp/3yr) shows pricing is not free. Equipment is the swing factor in any quarter's miss.
m60
Price-implied bar far above business capability
Reverse-DCF implies 24.3% growth versus a demonstrated 7.5% revenue CAGR. Nothing in the mix — annuity consumables, oligopoly sterilization, replacement capex — plausibly compounds at that rate; the structural gap is the dominant expectations risk, not a business-deterioration risk.
m17
Lumpy GAAP prints
The estimate record shows a -211% EPS miss (Nov 2025) and a -26% miss on a low-EPS quarter, i.e. charges/divestiture noise and seasonality can badly distort single prints even while the underlying annuity grows.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -11.2% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 4, 2026, STE was $224.19. We expect it to be $199.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $175.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$224.19
Our estimate for Mar 2027$199.00-11.2%
Great value below$175.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48