Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$52.27
6-month call
Bear -14.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$44.50
Great value below
$38.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-14.9% to $44.50
Predicted High
$51.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$44.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 7:30 am
Bear
STM trends lower to
$44.50
(-14.9% from $52.27)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSTM has ripped 57% into a tape that no longer supports the platform-monopoly narrative, with sentiment fading and fair value anchors sitting far below. Expect early consolidation as momentum cools, then a grind lower over months as value gravity and negative sentiment reassert, roughly tracking the deterministic baseline into the mid-40s.
Invalidated ifA break above 58 on strong volume or a positive fundamental catalyst (guide raise, design-win news) that reignites the momentum bid would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $52.27 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $52.27 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $43.55–$60.99 typical range · internal point $51.60 | — | ±16.7% | 6/10 | momentum stall, mild profit-taking in risk-on tape |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $39.63–$64.91 typical range · internal point $50.40 | — | ±24.2% | 6/10 | narrative fatigue as no catalyst supports elevated multiple |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $48.80 | — | -6.6% | 5/10 | sentiment drift lower, high beta amplifies any tape wobble |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $47.20 | — | -9.7% | 5/10 | value gravity pulls toward attractive-below 38 zone |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $46.00 | — | -12.0% | 4/10 | year-end positioning trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $45.20 | — | -13.5% | 4/10 | grind continues absent earnings catalyst |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $44.50 | — | -14.9% | 4/10 | converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $44.61 (-14.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $52.27 |
| Composite fair value | $7.33 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $7.23 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $4.47 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $38.00 |
| Value net score | -59 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +11 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 93.6% 3m 83.8% 6m 71.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.35 3m 3.97 5m 3.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 57.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | 1d behind | STM-20260818-001946-cdac |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-STM-20260819-034835-fd65 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-STM-20260819-034835-fd65 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-STM-20260819-034835-fd65 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-STM-20260819-034835-fd65 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | STM-20260819-002159-a986 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | STM-20260819-002159-a986 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $52.27 | $44.50 | -14.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 18, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.