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FRESH Analysis Report
Aug 19, 2026
4 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -28 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 11 · Value -59 · Sentiment -46 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $7.33 vs $55.79 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

STMicroelectronics N.V.

STM NYSE
Technology · Semiconductors
Schiphol, 1118 BH, Netherlands st.com/content/st_com/en.html Updated Aug 18, 8:43am
Price
$55.79
Market Cap
$49.8B
Employees
48,000
Beta
1.52
Avg Volume
10,848,890
Last Dividend
$0.36
CEO
Mr. Jean-Marc Chery

STMicroelectronics N.V. is a global semiconductor company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a broad portfolio of electronic components for diverse end markets. Its products include analog and mixed-signal chips, discrete power semiconductors, microcontrollers, digital integrated circuits, and MEMS and other sensors used in electronic systems. STMicroelectronics serves key sectors such as automotive, industrial automation, power and energy management, personal electronics, communications equipment, and computing and peripherals, supplying chips that enable control, connectivity, sensing, and power efficiency in these applications. The company operates through specialized business groups, including the Automotive and Discrete Group, Analog, MEMS and Sensors Group, and Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group, allowing it to address both high-volume consumer devices and demanding industrial and automotive platforms. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in the Netherlands with major operations in Switzerland, STMicroelectronics plays a significant role in the global electronics supply chain as a key supplier to equipment manufacturers across Europe, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 18, 2026 12:27am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$52.27
as of Aug 19, 3:43am (4d ago)
Change · Aug 19
-3.52 (-6.31%)
Day Range
$51.93 – $53.81
52-Week Range
$21.11 – $81.42
50-Day MA
$64.48
200-Day MA
$43.58
Volume
12,893,292.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 4d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 892,399,817.00
Float 641,382,986.00
Free Float 71.9%
Normal free float — 71.9% of shares trade freely, ~28.1% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 3:48am (4d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (4d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for STMicroelectronics N.V.

This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 19, 2026 12:38am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
290.39
Stock Price: $55.79
EPS (Diluted): 0.18
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.65
Stock Price: $55.79
Total Equity: $18.23B
Shares: 923,051,667
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
22.67
Market Cap: $49.80B
Total Debt: $2.13B
Cash: $2.84B
EBITDA: $2.03B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$46.0B
Market Cap: $49.80B
Total Debt: $2.13B
Cash: $2.84B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
33.9%
Gross Profit: $4.00B
Revenue: $11.80B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
1.5%
Operating Income: $175.00M
Revenue: $11.80B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
1.4%
Net Income: $166.00M
Revenue: $11.80B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
0.9%
Net Income: $166.00M
Total Equity: $18.23B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
0.4%
Operating Income: $175.00M
Tax Rate: 55.0%
Equity: $18.23B
Total Debt: $2.13B
Cash: $2.84B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.36
Current Assets: $11.27B
Current Liabilities: $3.35B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.12
Short-Term Debt: $298.00M
Long-Term Debt: $1.84B
Total Debt: $2.13B
Total Equity: $18.23B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$12.78
Revenue: $11.80B
Shares: 923,051,667
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$19.74
Total Equity: $18.23B
Shares: 923,051,667
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.33
Operating CF: $2.15B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 923,051,667
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.7%
Last Dividend: $0.36
Stock Price: $55.79
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
193.4%
Dividends Paid: -$321.00M
Net Income: $166.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 19, 2026 12:38am
Compares STM against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $12.8B $16.1B $17.3B $13.3B $11.8B
Cost of Revenue $7.4B $8.5B $9.0B $8.0B $7.8B
Gross Profit $5.3B $7.6B $8.3B $5.2B $4.0B
Operating Expenses $2.9B $3.2B $3.7B $3.5B $3.8B
Operating Income $2.4B $4.4B $4.6B $1.7B $175.0M
Net Income $2.0B $4.0B $4.2B $1.6B $166.0M
EBITDA $3.5B $5.7B $6.2B $3.4B $2.0B
EPS $2.21 $4.37 $4.66 $1.73 $0.19
EPS (Diluted) $2.16 $4.19 $4.46 $1.66 $0.18
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $3.2B $3.3B $3.2B $2.3B $2.8B
Total Current Assets $7.8B $9.8B $11.8B $11.7B $11.3B
Total Assets $15.5B $20.0B $24.5B $24.7B $24.8B
Current Liabilities $2.9B $3.8B $3.7B $3.8B $3.4B
Long-Term Debt $2.4B $2.5B $2.7B $2.0B $1.8B
Total Liabilities $6.3B $7.2B $7.6B $7.1B $6.6B
Total Equity $9.3B $12.8B $16.9B $17.7B $18.2B
Retained Earnings $5.2B $8.7B $12.5B $13.5B $13.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $3.1B $5.2B $6.0B $3.0B $2.2B
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $134.0M $334.0M $498.0M $503.0M $0
Dividends Paid -$205.0M -$212.0M -$223.0M -$288.0M -$321.0M
Stock Buybacks -$485.0M -$346.0M -$346.0M -$359.0M -$367.0M
Net Change in Cash $219.0M $33.0M -$36.0M -$940.0M $555.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +26.4% +7.2% -23.2% -11.1%
Gross Profit Growth +43.4% +8.5% -37.0% -23.4%
Operating Income Growth +83.5% +3.9% -63.7% -89.6%
Net Income Growth +98.0% +6.3% -63.0% -89.3%
EBITDA Growth +63.3% +9.1% -44.3% -40.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 10:15am (11d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-23 $0.09
2026-03-24 $0.09
2025-12-16 $0.09
2025-09-23 $0.09
2025-06-24 $0.09
2025-03-25 $0.09
2024-12-17 $0.09
2024-09-24 $0.09
2024-06-25 $0.09
2024-03-18 $0.06
2023-12-11 $0.06
2023-09-18 $0.06
2023-06-26 $0.06
2023-03-20 $0.06
2022-12-12 $0.06
2022-09-19 $0.06
2022-06-17 $0.06
2022-03-21 $0.06
2021-12-15 $0.06
2021-09-20 $0.06
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 13 computed · 6 not applicable · 5 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for STM — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-19
The creme is there an opportunity here? Caution
STM is not an AI winner or loser — it is a mature-node analog IDM whose most valuable non-physical moat, STM32 software inertia, is precisely what AI dissolves.
Position 48 with a 27-73 range: the edge-AI content story is real and could lift silicon per socket, but the offsetting mechanism — AI-assisted firmware porting plus cheapened analog design arming subsidized entrants — attacks pricing at the exact moment operating margin sits at 1.5%. Watch microcontroller revenue per unit and mid-cycle gross margin, not headline design wins; if GM fails to reclaim the high-30s as utilization recovers, the moat erosion is confirmed structural rather than cyclical. Any disclosed datacenter power or silicon-photonics revenue line is the upside tell to catch early.
48
AI Position
Neutral with a wide, unresolved range — content uplift vs. ecosystem erosion
Cheap intelligence adds silicon content at the edge and a small datacenter power/photonics annex, but it also dissolves the STM32 software switching cost and cheapens rival chip design — a two-sided mechanism arriving while margins are already at cycle lows.
Exposure 58 Confidence 62 50 = neutral
Primary Tailwind

Pushing inference to battery-powered endpoints raises the bill of materials per device: more MCU compute (NPU-class STM32), more MEMS sensors to feed models, more memory and power management — all products STM already sells into the same automotive/industrial sockets.

Primary Pressure

AI-assisted firmware translation and code generation attack the single largest non-physical moat STM owns: the accumulated cost of porting embedded software off STM32. Combined with AI-cheapened analog/MCU design, this arms Chinese and RISC-V entrants exactly where STM's mature-node margins live.

Critical Hinge

Whether per-socket content gain outruns ASP erosion. Watch microcontroller-segment revenue per unit and design-win mix toward NPU-equipped parts versus reported price concessions in general-purpose MCU and industrial analog.

Hard to Reproduce

Automotive-grade qualification history, ASIL/functional-safety documentation, decade-long supply commitments, in-house MEMS and BCD process recipes, and 300mm/SiC fab capacity — none of which cheap software reproduces.

Forensic fingerprint same 11 factors for every stock · 0 unfavorable · 50 neutral · 100 favorable
Underlying Need Persistence do people still need this at all? 88
Vehicles, factories and appliances need control, sensing and power silicon regardless of how cheap intelligence gets.
The demand is physical and rising with electrification and automation; cheap AI increases, not decreases, the number of things that need a microcontroller, sensor and power stage.
automotive semi content per vehicle · industrial automation order book · electrification design-win pipeline
relevance 72 · confidence 86
Solution Persistence will they still solve it this way? 60
The chip stays; whose chip and which instruction set is now genuinely open.
Analog, power and MEMS functions must still be implemented in silicon, but the MCU layer faces RISC-V substitution made practical by AI-assisted software migration, and some functions consolidate into customer SoCs.
RISC-V design wins in industrial MCU · function consolidation into OEM SoCs · STM32 ecosystem developer retention
relevance 76 · confidence 62
Intelligence Commoditization does cheap AI power them or copy them? 36
Cheap AI helps rivals copy STM more than it helps STM defend.
AI-assisted analog/digital design and automated firmware porting lower the two hardest costs a challenger faces — layout expertise and customer software inertia — while STM's own AI gains are process-level and largely matchable.
Chinese MCU/analog share gains · AI code-porting tools for embedded · competitive pricing pressure commentary
relevance 82 · confidence 58
Responsibility Transfer are they paid to take the blame? 62
Automotive safety qualification and long-life supply liability still buy STM a premium AI cannot underwrite.
OEMs pay for ASIL documentation, PPAP history, 15-year supply guarantees and recall liability absorption — obligations no AI-designed newcomer can assume credibly on a short timeline.
automotive-grade requalification cycles · safety-critical socket retention · long-term supply agreement terms
relevance 48 · confidence 68
Scarcity Migration do their assets get rarer or more common? 38
Scarcity is migrating to advanced logic, HBM and packaging — assets STM does not own.
The AI buildout concentrates value in leading-edge nodes and advanced packaging while mature-node analog/MCU capacity, which STM has heavily capitalized, remains oversupplied; STM's genuinely scarce assets are process recipes and automotive qualification, not capacity.
mature-node utilization rates · SiC demand versus capacity added · datacenter power/photonics revenue disclosure
relevance 80 · confidence 66
Customer DIY Preference will customers just build it themselves? 52
AI lowers custom-silicon design cost, nudging large OEMs toward in-house parts for high-volume sockets.
Cheaper design and verification make customer ASICs viable at lower volumes, but customers still avoid owning analog/power process qualification and automotive liability, which caps how far insourcing goes.
OEM in-house MCU/SoC announcements · custom ASIC share of automotive BOM · design-services engagement mix
relevance 44 · confidence 55
AI Intermediation Position do AI agents go through them or around them? 50
Agent routing barely touches a business sold through distributors and multi-year design cycles.
Component selection is decided by engineers inside long qualification cycles, not by an interface AI can bypass; the main marginal effect is AI-assisted part search making cross-referencing to cheaper equivalents easier.
distributor channel margin trends · cross-reference substitution frequency · design-tool ecosystem stickiness
relevance 26 · confidence 60
Data Leverage does their data make AI better? 44
Fab yield and developer-ecosystem data help operationally but do not compound into an AI moat.
Process and test data improve yield and cycle time internally, and the STM32 model zoo aids edge deployment, but neither dataset produces a product competitors cannot approximate.
yield improvement disclosures · ST Edge AI toolchain adoption · test-time reduction per wafer
relevance 40 · confidence 52
AI Margin Conversion do the AI savings become profit? 44
AI-driven cost savings likely get handed to customers in a glut, not retained.
With operating margin at 1.5% and industry-wide compression, any design or fab productivity gain lands in a market where customers hold bargaining power; opex programs matter, but pass-through is the base case until utilization recovers.
gross margin ex-utilization recovery · opex reduction program delivery · pricing concession commentary
relevance 62 · confidence 58
Revenue Unit Durability does the thing they charge for survive? 56
The monetized unit — a shipped chip — survives, but its price is under structural attack.
Unit volumes should benefit from more silicon per device, yet the per-unit price on general-purpose MCU and analog is where AI-cheapened competition and easier porting bite hardest.
revenue per unit by segment · MCU versus analog ASP divergence · content-per-device metrics
relevance 70 · confidence 63
Entrant Compression how easily can newcomers copy them? 31
Barriers around design and software inertia are compressing fastest exactly where STM earns.
AI shortens analog layout, verification and firmware-migration timelines, so subsidized Asian entrants need less accumulated engineering to contest mid-range MCU and commodity analog sockets; only fab process and automotive qualification remain hard.
new entrant qualification wins · share loss in general-purpose analog · time-to-market for challenger MCUs
relevance 85 · confidence 60

AI Lens thesis

AI reaches STM through three distinct channels, not one: (1) demand-side, cheap inference migrating to endpoints raises compute, sensing and power content per unit, and a small but real annex opens in datacenter power delivery and silicon photonics; (2) competitive-side, AI collapses the cost of both designing a competing analog/MCU part and porting customer firmware away from STM32, converting an ecosystem lock-in into a price negotiation; (3) capital-side, the AI compute boom concentrates scarcity in advanced logic, HBM and packaging — assets STM does not own — while mature-node analog capacity, which STM does own and has heavily capitalized, sits in glut. STM's own use of AI (yield analytics, test-time reduction, design productivity) is genuine but lands in a market structure where savings are likely handed to customers rather than kept. The need for automotive and industrial silicon is close to unassailable; the durability of STM's pricing on it is what AI puts in play.

Thesis breaker If microcontroller gross margin and ASP recover with volume rather than staying structurally lower into the next upcycle, the ecosystem-erosion thesis is wrong. Conversely, a material, disclosed revenue line from edge-AI-enabled parts or datacenter power/photonics would break the neutral read upward.
What the market may be underestimating

Upside Edge inference makes MEMS sensors a compute-demand driver rather than a commodity add-on — sensor attach rates and multi-sensor fusion nodes can lift content in industrial and personal electronics faster than the market's cyclical framing allows.

Downside Firmware portability is the quiet moat. If AI tooling makes an STM32-to-alternative port a weeks-not-years exercise, STM loses the pricing umbrella it has enjoyed for a decade, and that shows up as permanently lower mid-cycle gross margin rather than as lost revenue.

Outcome range spread 46 · unresolved

27Bear case
48Central case
73Bull case
Three headline numbers, deliberately never blended: Position (which way), Exposure (how much it matters at all), Confidence (how sure). The fingerprint asks every stock the same 11 questions so companies a sector label would lump together get told apart. Not an input to GEM/Coal or the Q/V/S lenses.
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-19 07:17

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Stalling A deep analog/MCU downcycle has cut revenue ~11% YoY and gutted earnings (-89%), but the contraction is decelerating and a trough is forming — direction is flat-to-slightly-up from here, not a return to prior earnings power soon. conf 6/10
Share loss Category flat · Semiconductors overall are in a steady phase with category median recent growth of -2.7% and industry revenue YoY turning positive (+2.2%) against a -9.3% long-term CAGR — i.e. a flat category with a recovering edge. STM at -11% revenue and -89% earnings is materially worse than the category median, and worse than the recovering tail of it.
Next 2 quarters
Stalling
Revenue YoY should compress toward flat as year-ago comps ease and industrial/embedded orders stabilize, but automotive is still working lower and utilization stays below normal, so earnings remain deeply depressed. Direction of change improving, level still negative.
↓ below expectations
Year 1
Holding
A full year that troughs early and recovers modestly late lands roughly flat on revenue versus the prior year, with earnings recovering off a very low base but nowhere near prior levels. Cost program helps the back half more than the front.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Off a trough base, cyclical normalization plus 300mm/SiC cost structure plus rising power and sensing content per unit should produce mid-single-digit revenue growth and a much faster earnings rebuild. But Chinese substitution in exactly STM's mature-node strongholds caps the slope — this is a recovery to a lower structural ceiling, not a return to the prior peak.
— expectations unclear
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
50 Industrial/embedded inventory correction largely worked through — STM's distribution and industrial channel absorbed the sharpest de-stock in the analog/MCU space; order flow stabilization plus easy year-ago comps mechanically turn revenue YoY from deeply negative toward flat over the next few prints. This is the single largest swing factor for the near rungs.
41 Manufacturing footprint reshaping and cost program lowering breakeven — Consolidation of sub-scale 150/200mm lines into 300mm (Crolles/Agrate) and SiC capacity in-region, plus a company-wide cost reduction program, structurally reduces fixed cost per wafer. It does nothing for FY revenue but it is the mechanism by which operating income can recover faster than revenue in years 2-3.
31 Content-per-unit growth in electrification and power — Even with flat unit volumes, silicon carbide, power discretes, smart-power analog and MEMS content per vehicle and per industrial node keeps rising. This gives STM a positive underlying volume mix once end-market builds stop declining.
36 Operating leverage is symmetric — Because earnings fell ~89% on an ~11% revenue decline, the same fab-loading leverage works upward: modest revenue recovery plus utilization normalization produces outsized percentage earnings growth off a very low base.
Growth risks
58 Chinese domestic substitution in power, discretes and auto MCU — Local Chinese suppliers are qualifying into power discretes, IGBT/SiC and general-purpose MCUs at aggressive price points, in STM's single largest growth market. This is a share problem, not a cycle problem — it caps the slope of any recovery and pressures pricing permanently.
48 Automotive demand still deteriorating — European/Western EV programs have slipped and OEMs are running lean on semiconductor inventory; automotive is STM's biggest segment, so a still-declining auto book can offset industrial recovery and push the trough further right.
49 Gross margin drag from unloaded capacity and restructuring — Industry-wide margin compression (-6.8pp gross, -15.5pp operating over three years) plus STM's own unused-capacity charges mean earnings can stay depressed even as revenue stabilizes — the earnings rung lags the revenue rung by several quarters.
36 Credibility gap in the estimate record — Four of the last five prints missed EPS estimates, including -78% and -61% misses. That pattern says either guidance transmission or cost absorption is being consistently under-modeled, and it biases the near-term surprise distribution negative.
The world is bifurcating inside semiconductors: compute/AI silicon is absorbing capital and growth while analog, power, MEMS and microcontrollers — STM's entire book — are in a demand and pricing trough driven by post-COVID inventory unwind, a slower Western EV ramp, and weak European industrial capex. Layered on top is a genuine structural shift: China is building domestic capacity precisely in mature-node power and general-purpose MCUs, converting what used to be a cyclical price floor into a permanent one. Neutral macro (10y 4.72, positively sloped curve) neither helps nor hurts much; industrial capex is rate-sensitive and stays subdued. The honest read is that STM's markets bottom rather than boom: electrification content growth is real, but STM captures less of it than it would have five years ago because the buyer set now has credible cheaper alternatives. Recovery is available; restoration of peak-cycle earnings power is not obviously available.
Growth position composite -16 near/structural split
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
30Next 2 quarters · Stalling
50Year 1 · Holding
70Years 2–3 · Growing
-16Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-19 03:47:40
Verdict Modestly overvalued at trough — fair value $42–50 on normalized earnings; synthesis $7 target is a broken cyclical DCF, ignore it. Wait for sub-$45 or evidence of a cycle bottom.

The raw numbers tell a brutal cyclical story, not a structural one. STM's revenue collapsed from $17.29B (2023) to $13.27B (2024) to $11.80B (2025) — a 32% peak-to-trough decline — while net income imploded from $4.21B to $166M, a 96% earnings collapse. Gross margin fell from 47.9% (2023) to 33.9% (2025), and operating margin from 26.7% to 1.5%. This is what a semi downturn looks like when a fab-heavy business runs into negative operating leverage: fixed costs don't flex, so a -32% revenue move wipes out ~$4B of operating income. The balance sheet, however, is pristine — $2.84B cash vs $2.13B debt (net cash), $18.23B equity, current ratio 3.36, D/E 0.12. This is not a company in distress; it's a cyclical trough.

The synthesis verdict of $7.23 fair value is absurd and I dissent hard. A DCF that spits out a 87% downside on a net-cash European semiconductor champion with $18.2B of book equity is almost certainly extrapolating trough FCF or trough earnings into perpetuity — a textbook cyclical-DCF error. At $7.23, STM would trade at 0.4x book and ~$6.5B market cap for a business that earned $4.2B just two years ago on $17.3B revenue. That's not a valuation, it's an arithmetic accident. The pre-flight note flagging PE hyper-sensitivity above 150 applies to the entire model chain: at 1.5% operating margin, every downstream multiple is garbage. EV/revenue of 3.9x and P/B of 2.65x are the honest anchors here, and both are middle-of-the-range for a cyclical semi at trough — not "overvalued 87%."

That said, the bull narrative also overreaches. Revenue CAGR of -17.4% over the visible window is real, and the platform-monopoly framing is wrong — STM is not TSMC, not Nvidia, and not irreplaceable. It's an analog/MEMS/power player with genuine automotive exposure but facing SiC competition from Wolfspeed, Infineon, and onsemi, plus Chinese domestic substitution at legacy nodes. European cost structure is a real drag. The honest normalized earnings power is probably $2.5–3.0B (midcycle, between the 2021 $2.0B and the 2023 $4.2B peak), which at a 15x cyclical multiple gets you $37–45B market cap, or roughly $42–50/share. Current $55.79 is modestly rich to that midcycle anchor but nowhere near the synthesis's $7 catastrophe. A contrarian would argue the automotive semi cycle bottoms in 2H26, and buying trough EPS at 1.1x book is how you make money in semis — Infineon and onsemi tell the same story.

Where I'd push back on my own read: the -89.3% recent earnings YoY and -11.1% revenue YoY suggest the trough isn't in yet, and there's no quarterly data in this file to verify stabilization — that's a real gap. The 193% payout ratio is unsustainable and the dividend will likely be cut or held flat as earnings recover, removing one support. If SiC share loss is structural rather than cyclical (Chinese EV OEMs designing out STM), midcycle earnings could reset to $1.5–2.0B, which pulls fair value down to $30–35. So the bear case has teeth, just not $7-of-teeth. Net: the synthesis is directionally defensible (stock is not cheap at 22x EV/EBITDA on trough numbers) but quantitatively deranged. Fair value is $42–50; current $55.79 is 10–30% rich, not 87% rich. Wait for a cycle turn signal or a sub-$45 entry.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-19 03:47:58
Verdict Overvalued at $55.79 — the market is capitalizing a sharp cyclical earnings collapse as if a near-full margin recovery is likely; fair value looks closer to the low-$40s absent proof of a rebound.

What jumps out is not that STMicroelectronics is “expensive on trough earnings,” but how violently its earnings power has reset in just two years and how much of the old mid-cycle profitability the current market cap still seems to assume. Revenue fell from $17.29B in 2023 to $13.27B in 2024 and then to $11.80B in 2025, a cumulative 32% drop. The bigger issue is margin collapse: gross margin went from 47.9% in 2023 ($8.29B gross profit on $17.29B revenue) to 39.3% in 2024 and just 33.9% in 2025. Operating income cratered from $4.61B in 2023 to $1.68B in 2024 to only $175M in 2025, taking operating margin from 26.7% to 12.7% to 1.5%. That is not a normal “optical P/E problem”; it is evidence that this business is highly exposed to utilization and pricing, and that the earnings base investors were anchoring to in 2022-23 was cyclical, not structural.

At $49.8B of market cap, investors are paying 4.1x 2025 sales, about 22.7x EV/EBITDA, and roughly 300x earnings for a company that earned just $166M last year and generated $2.15B of operating cash flow. Even if I give credit for a net cash balance sheet—$2.84B cash against $2.13B debt—and a strong current ratio of 3.36, the valuation only makes sense if 2025 is very close to the bottom and STM can recover to something much nearer its 2023 economics. But that is a huge bridge. On 2025 numbers, return on equity is 0.9% and ROIC is 0.45%, which says today’s capital base is barely earning anything. A 2.65x price-to-book multiple is not crazy for a quality semiconductor franchise in an upswing; it looks rich for a manufacturer currently producing almost no operating profit on $18.23B of equity.

The raw data tells me this is a classic cyclical semi name being valued as if normalized earnings are both high and imminent. If I normalize off 2024 rather than the 2025 trough, the stock still does not look cheap: $1.56B of net income on a $49.8B market cap is about 32x earnings, and 2024 was already a sharp step down from 2023. If I normalize off 2023, it looks optically reasonable at roughly 12x peak earnings, but that assumes the 24% net margin of 2023 is repeatable. The three-year path—2023 net margin 24.4%, 2024 11.8%, 2025 1.4%—argues the opposite. For a capital-intensive analog/power/automotive supplier, the key question is not whether demand eventually improves, but whether the prior margin structure was flattered by shortage-era pricing and unusually high factory loading. I think it was. That makes the current price too generous.

The best case against this bearish read is that STM’s balance sheet and market positioning give it real staying power, and the market may be correctly looking through a temporary air pocket. Revenue in 2025 is still only modestly below 2021’s $12.76B, yet the company remains profitable, cash generative at the operating line, and essentially net-cash. If 2025 is simply an inventory correction plus underutilization trough, then a rebound even halfway back toward 2023 profitability would make today’s valuation look much less demanding. A move back to, say, $2.5B-$3.0B of operating income on a recovered $14B-$15B revenue base would quickly compress the apparent multiples, and investors could justify paying ahead for automotive and industrial semiconductor content growth. That is the core bull case, and it is not irrational; I just weigh it less because the data here shows not mere volume softness but a severe deterioration in gross margin, which usually signals weaker pricing power and a less favorable mix, not just temporary shipment timing.

What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 is truly the earnings trough rather than a step-change lower in returns. Specifically, I would want to see revenue stabilize back above $13B annualized, gross margin recover decisively above 38%-40%, and operating margin move back into at least the high single digits without financial engineering. If STM can show that 2025’s $175M operating income was aberrational and that operating cash flow above $2B can coexist with a much stronger P&L, then a rerating is deserved. Absent that, I think the stock is still priced off old peak economics and deserves to trade materially lower—closer to a value justified by 2024-like earnings at best, not 2023 nostalgia.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-19 03:48:35
Verdict Overvalued at $55.79; mid-cycle recovery still only supports low-to-mid $40s on normalized $2–2.5B earnings

The numbers describe a classic semiconductor downcycle that has gone further and faster than a simple inventory correction. Revenue fell from $17.29B in 2023 to $13.27B in 2024 and $11.80B in 2025—a cumulative 32% drop—while net income collapsed from $4.21B to $1.56B to just $166M. Gross margin compressed from roughly 48% at the peak to 33.9%, and operating margin is now 1.5%. Free-cash-flow and earnings CAGRs of –40% and –80% confirm the trough is real, not an accounting artifact. At $55.79 the market still assigns a $49.8B enterprise that is 4.1× trailing sales and 2.65× book for a business generating sub-1% ROE and ROIC. The rule-based “high-growth profitable” label is simply wrong; this is a mature, capital-intensive analog and automotive supplier whose mid-cycle economics have been reset lower, at least for now.

What stands out most is the mismatch between the cash-generation profile and the price. Even if one generously normalizes mid-cycle net income back to $2.0–2.5B (well below the 2022–23 peaks), a 15–18× multiple—already generous for a European foundry-exposed analog name—implies a $30–45B equity value, or roughly $34–50 per share. The current $55.79 quote therefore embeds a full recovery plus a geopolitical premium that the DCF layer correctly flags as extreme. The balance sheet is the only genuine bright spot: $2.84B cash against $2.13B debt, a 3.36 current ratio and 0.12 debt-to-equity mean STM can endure another year of trough conditions without distress. That solvency, however, does not justify paying 290× trailing earnings or a payout ratio above 190% on a 0.7% yield.

The strongest contrary case is that $55 already reflects a 50%+ drawdown from cycle highs and that trough multiples are always optically absurd. A smart opponent would note STM’s entrenched position in automotive MCUs, power discrete and MEMS, the structural rise in semiconductor content per vehicle, and the political tailwind of European semiconductor sovereignty subsidies. They would also argue that book value of $18.23B understates the replacement cost of the installed process technology and that any sequential stabilization in industrial and auto demand would trigger a violent re-rating. Those points have merit on a multi-year view; they do not erase the fact that gross margins have structurally narrowed 1,000–1,400 bps from peak and that the market is still capitalizing a narrative of irreplaceability that the 2024–25 P&L does not yet support.

I would reverse the overvalued call if two consecutive quarters show revenue stabilizing above $3.2B with gross margin reclaiming 38%+, or if management guides 2026 free-cash-flow conversion back above 15% of sales while automotive SiC and industrial bookings turn positive on a year-over-year basis. Until those prints appear, the stock prices a recovery that the current income statement and return ratios have not begun to deliver.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 2.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), plus AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-19 07:20:21
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality but rich - wait for sub-$40 7/10
A quality-cyclical semi at trough margins already priced for full mid-cycle recovery - the business is real, the price is not.
The cruxWhether $52 discounts a recovery that STM can actually deliver before AI-assisted entrants compress its analog/MCU pricing power.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from STM's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+11
Mixed
edge √Σ 110 · risk √Σ 99 · conf 7/10

STM shows the classic profile of a well-run cyclical semi caught in a deep downcycle. Revenue peaked at $17.29B in 2023 with 47.9% gross margin and 26.7% operating margin, then collapsed to $11.80B (-32% from peak) with GM crushed to 33.9% and OpM to just 1.5% in 2025. Net income fell from $4.21B to $166M — a 96% decline. Yet the machine still generated $2.15B FCF even at trough, funded itself, and preserved $1.69B net cash. Diluted share count actually shrank (-0.1% CAGR), SBC is a trivial 1.6% of revenue, and buybacks exceed SBC 1.75x — genuine per-share value discipline that is rare in semis.

Strengths 3
m70
Balance sheet fortress through the trough
Net cash $1.69B, Altman Z 6.16 (safe), and still $2.15B FCF generated in the worst year of the cycle. Survival is not a question.
m65
Genuine capital discipline
Diluted shares declined slightly (923M in 2025 vs 924M in 2021), SBC only 1.6% of revenue, and buybacks 175% of SBC. Per-share value is protected — atypical for the sector.
m55
Clean earnings quality mechanics
Accruals -6.8% of assets, OCF/NI 3.83x, Beneish M -2.69. No signs of accounting stretch even as reported earnings collapsed — cash conversion is if anything better than reported.
Concerns 3
m75
Severe profitability collapse
Operating margin fell from 26.7% (2023) to 1.5% (2025); net income from $4.21B to $166M. Whether this is purely cyclical or reflects lasting share/pricing loss in automotive/industrial analog is the central quality question.
m55
Gross margin has compressed 14 points
GM from 47.9% to 33.9% in two years signals heavy underutilization and/or pricing pressure. The magnitude is larger than a normal inventory correction and warrants scrutiny of fixed-cost base.
m35
FCF cut by two-thirds from peak
FCF $5.99B (2023) to $2.15B (2025). Still positive and self-funding, but the operating leverage that helped on the way up is now working brutally in reverse.
This is a quality cyclical caught mid-storm, not a broken business. The tells that matter for durability — balance sheet, share count discipline, cash conversion, accruals — are all clean or better. But I cannot give it a 'solid/improving' grade when operating margin is 1.5% and net income has fallen 96% from peak; the market of end-customers has clearly rejected something, whether that is inventory, pricing, or share. The right read is a Mixed business in a deep cyclical trough with the financial architecture to survive it comfortably. Whether it earns its way back to 25%+ operating margin is the open question, and nothing in the raw data yet proves it will.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Segment detail: is the collapse concentrated in Automotive/Power (share loss?) or broad-based cyclical inventory correction across Industrial and Personal Electronics
  • Utilization rates and any fab-underloading charges baked into the 2025 GM of 33.9%
  • Any restructuring/impairment charges distorting the 1.5% operating margin
  • Customer concentration and whether key auto customers (e.g. Tesla) have shifted sourcing
  • Capex trajectory and whether the FCF preservation came at the expense of needed investment in 300mm/SiC capacity
  • Any convertible or off-balance-sheet obligations behind the $2.13B gross-to-net cash gap
Valuation / Mispricing
-59
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 5/10
Price $52.27 vs a plausible normalized deserved value ~$40 - roughly 25-30% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $38.00

The e2e composite fair value of $7.33 (signal-adjusted $7.23) is almost certainly a runaway output driven by trough earnings - net income has fallen ~96% from peak and operating margin sits at 1.5%, so any earnings-anchored method (anchored-PE $4.47) will spit out a distressed number. I discount those as mechanically broken at the bottom of the cycle. The EPV-floor of $17.33 is more defensible as a true bottom-of-cycle anchor but still sits far below the $52.27 price. Even if I normalize to mid-cycle earnings power and grant STM full credit for its clean balance sheet, MEMS/analog/auto franchise, and secular electrification tailwinds, a defensible deserved value on normalized numbers lands in the mid-$30s to mid-$40s range - not $52.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Quality franchise deserves a premium to trough math
Clean balance sheet, disciplined share count, MEMS/auto chokepoint position justify normalizing well above trough earnings - but that premium is already in the tape.
Rich / priced-in 3
m62
Price assumes full mid-cycle recovery
With op margin at 1.5% and net income down 96% from peak, $52 already discounts a return to peak-cycle profitability. Any disappointment on timing or magnitude is downside.
m55
All valuation anchors sit below price
Composite FV $7.33, anchored-PE $4.47, and even EPV-floor $17.33 are all beneath $52.27. Even discounting the trough-earnings methods as broken, the EPV floor implies zero margin of safety.
m40
Bull case requires heroic assumptions
To justify $52 you need mid-cycle EPS restored plus secular growth premium plus multiple expansion - three things going right simultaneously in a cyclical semi caught mid-storm.
I cannot call this cheap at $52. The trough-earnings-driven fair values ($7 range) are mechanically broken and I discount them, but even a generous mid-cycle normalization on a quality analog/MEMS franchise gets me to the high $30s to low $40s - not here. The market is already paying for the recovery. I would want it closer to $38 before the risk-reward tilts my way; today it is a hold-if-you-own-it, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Management's stated path back to 20%+ op margin and the timeline
  • Auto/industrial book-to-bill and inventory correction stage
  • Any one-time charges masking underlying earnings power
  • Capex trajectory vs FCF - is the balance sheet still funding through the trough
General Sentiment
-46
Headwind
tail √Σ 56 · head √Σ 106 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly risk-on with VIX at 15.8 and neutral rates, which normally helps a beta-1.52 semi name. But that lift is not landing here: STM is in a strong downtrend (-17% CAGR, -23pp over three years, -11% in the last month) while peers ride AI-datacenter and Vera Rubin power-ramp narratives. The story the market wants to tell about STM (platform monopoly, EV/IoT chokepoint) is intensity-strong but durability only moderate and cult-low, meaning there is no fanatical bid to defend the stock on dips.

Tailwinds 3
m40
AI-datacenter optionality building
Management guiding >$1B datacenter revenue 2026 and >$2B 2027, plus the Mizuho power-semis note and Vera Rubin ramp chatter — gives bulls a fresh narrative hook that lifted the group Monday.
m30
Risk-on tape and buyback
VIX sub-16 and an established risk-on regime, plus an active share repurchase, provide a modest floor for a high-beta semi name.
m25
UWB / secular design-win headlines
LitePoint UWB collaboration and industrial/automotive design-win drumbeat keep the long-term story alive even if it is not moving the tape today.
Headwinds 3
m70
Narrative fading while peers ride AI story
STM's platform-monopoly story lacks a clean AI-datacenter hook; capital is rotating to TSM and pure AI-power plays (Wolfspeed, ON) while STM gets tagged with margin/cost-pressure headlines.
m65
Price action screams distribution
-11% in a month and -23pp over 3 years signal persistent selling; the tape has trained holders that rallies are for selling, and beta 1.52 amplifies any risk-off flicker.
m45
Analyst tone hedged
Coverage framed as 'buy the dip or wait?' and margin/cost pressure callouts — no aggressive upgrade cycle to force a short cover.
Net pressure on STM leans negative. The macro tape is actually friendly, but this specific name is caught in a narrative vacuum: the platform-monopoly story is intact but not exciting, the AI-datacenter angle is real but junior to the pure-plays getting the flows, and the chart is in a persistent downtrend that keeps analyst tone cautious. The Vera Rubin power-semi bump and buyback provide some offset, so I would not call it a Strong Headwind, but the path of least resistance for the tape here is still down until either an AI-datacenter print surprises or the group rotation clearly turns.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the Vera Rubin / AI-datacenter power-semi trade sticks or fades within a week
  • Any Q4 pre-announcement or margin guide-down that would confirm the bear framing
  • Analyst target revisions post the -12% monthly drop — cuts would deepen the headwind
  • Sector rotation flows: are funds adding EU semis or still concentrating in TSM/NVDA
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
+0
Neutral with a wide, unresolved range — content uplift vs. ecosystem erosion
opp √Σ 58 · thr √Σ 44 · conf 6/10

AI reaches STM through three distinct channels, not one: (1) demand-side, cheap inference migrating to endpoints raises compute, sensing and power content per unit, and a small but real annex opens in datacenter power delivery and silicon photonics; (2) competitive-side, AI collapses the cost of both designing a competing analog/MCU part and porting customer firmware away from STM32, converting an ecosystem lock-in into a price negotiation; (3) capital-side, the AI compute boom concentrates scarcity in advanced logic, HBM and packaging — assets STM does not own — while mature-node analog capacity, which STM does own and has heavily capitalized, sits in glut. STM's own use of AI (yield analytics, test-time reduction, design productivity) is genuine but lands in a market structure where savings are likely handed to customers rather than kept. The need for automotive and industrial silicon is close to unassailable; the durability of STM's pricing on it is what AI puts in play.

AI opportunities 3
m55
Underlying Need Persistence
Vehicles, factories and appliances need control, sensing and power silicon regardless of how cheap intelligence gets.
m15
Solution Persistence
The chip stays; whose chip and which instruction set is now genuinely open.
m12
Responsibility Transfer
Automotive safety qualification and long-life supply liability still buy STM a premium AI cannot underwrite.
AI threats 3
m23
Intelligence Commoditization
Cheap AI helps rivals copy STM more than it helps STM defend.
m19
Scarcity Migration
Scarcity is migrating to advanced logic, HBM and packaging — assets STM does not own.
m32
Entrant Compression
Barriers around design and software inertia are compressing fastest exactly where STM earns.
STM is not an AI winner or loser — it is a mature-node analog IDM whose most valuable non-physical moat, STM32 software inertia, is precisely what AI dissolves. Position 48 with a 27-73 range: the edge-AI content story is real and could lift silicon per socket, but the offsetting mechanism — AI-assisted firmware porting plus cheapened analog design arming subsidized entrants — attacks pricing at the exact moment operating margin sits at 1.5%. Watch microcontroller revenue per unit and mid-cycle gross margin, not headline design wins; if GM fails to reclaim the high-30s as utilization recovers, the moat erosion is confirmed structural rather than cyclical. Any disclosed datacenter power or silicon-photonics revenue line is the upside tell to catch early.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • new entrant qualification wins
  • share loss in general-purpose analog
  • time-to-market for challenger MCUs
  • Chinese MCU/analog share gains
  • AI code-porting tools for embedded
  • competitive pricing pressure commentary
  • mature-node utilization rates
  • SiC demand versus capacity added
The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
Growth Outlook
-16
Stalling
edge √Σ 80 · risk √Σ 97 · conf 6/10

The world is bifurcating inside semiconductors: compute/AI silicon is absorbing capital and growth while analog, power, MEMS and microcontrollers — STM's entire book — are in a demand and pricing trough driven by post-COVID inventory unwind, a slower Western EV ramp, and weak European industrial capex. Layered on top is a genuine structural shift: China is building domestic capacity precisely in mature-node power and general-purpose MCUs, converting what used to be a cyclical price floor into a permanent one. Neutral macro (10y 4.72, positively sloped curve) neither helps nor hurts much; industrial capex is rate-sensitive and stays subdued. The honest read is that STM's markets bottom rather than boom: electrification content growth is real, but STM captures less of it than it would have five years ago because the buyer set now has credible cheaper alternatives. Recovery is available; restoration of peak-cycle earnings power is not obviously available.

Growth drivers 4
m50
Industrial/embedded inventory correction largely worked through
STM's distribution and industrial channel absorbed the sharpest de-stock in the analog/MCU space; order flow stabilization plus easy year-ago comps mechanically turn revenue YoY from deeply negative toward flat over the next few prints. This is the single largest swing factor for the near rungs.
m41
Manufacturing footprint reshaping and cost program lowering breakeven
Consolidation of sub-scale 150/200mm lines into 300mm (Crolles/Agrate) and SiC capacity in-region, plus a company-wide cost reduction program, structurally reduces fixed cost per wafer. It does nothing for FY revenue but it is the mechanism by which operating income can recover faster than revenue in years 2-3.
m31
Content-per-unit growth in electrification and power
Even with flat unit volumes, silicon carbide, power discretes, smart-power analog and MEMS content per vehicle and per industrial node keeps rising. This gives STM a positive underlying volume mix once end-market builds stop declining.
m36
Operating leverage is symmetric
Because earnings fell ~89% on an ~11% revenue decline, the same fab-loading leverage works upward: modest revenue recovery plus utilization normalization produces outsized percentage earnings growth off a very low base.
Growth risks 4
m58
Chinese domestic substitution in power, discretes and auto MCU
Local Chinese suppliers are qualifying into power discretes, IGBT/SiC and general-purpose MCUs at aggressive price points, in STM's single largest growth market. This is a share problem, not a cycle problem — it caps the slope of any recovery and pressures pricing permanently.
m48
Automotive demand still deteriorating
European/Western EV programs have slipped and OEMs are running lean on semiconductor inventory; automotive is STM's biggest segment, so a still-declining auto book can offset industrial recovery and push the trough further right.
m49
Gross margin drag from unloaded capacity and restructuring
Industry-wide margin compression (-6.8pp gross, -15.5pp operating over three years) plus STM's own unused-capacity charges mean earnings can stay depressed even as revenue stabilizes — the earnings rung lags the revenue rung by several quarters.
m36
Credibility gap in the estimate record
Four of the last five prints missed EPS estimates, including -78% and -61% misses. That pattern says either guidance transmission or cost absorption is being consistently under-modeled, and it biases the near-term surprise distribution negative.
vs expectations: ~6m below · 1y inline · 2-3y unknown
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -14.9% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 19, 2026, STM was $52.27. We expect it to be $44.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $38.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 19, 2026.

Price when predicted$52.27
Our estimate for Feb 2027$44.50-14.9%
Great value below$38.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06