Made on
Aug 16, 2026
Price at call
$191.74
6-month call
Bull +17.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$225.00
Great value below
$175.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.3% to $225.00
Predicted High
$225.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$193.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 16, 2026 12:40 am
Bull
STT trends higher to
$225.00
(+17.3% from $191.74)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisSTT sits well below composite fair value ($288.70) with a risk-on tape, bank rotation bid, and a 5/5 beat streak supporting continued mean-reversion higher. Momentum is strong (51.8% trailing 6mo) but stretched, so I expect near-term consolidation before a grind toward the mid-$220s as value gravity pulls higher.
Invalidated ifBreak below $175 (attractive-below level) or a risk-off regime flip would falsify the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $191.74 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 16, 2026 | — | $191.74 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 30, 2026 | $182.70–$200.78 typical range · internal point $193.20 | — | ±4.7% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape hold recent range |
| 1 month | Sep 16, 2026 | $178.64–$204.84 typical range · internal point $195.80 | — | ±6.8% | 6/10 | Bank rotation bid persists, mild drift up |
| 2 months | Oct 16, 2026 | $199.50 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print anticipation, beat streak supportive |
| 3 months | Nov 16, 2026 | $208.00 | — | +8.5% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely reignites value catch-up |
| 4 months | Dec 16, 2026 | $215.00 | — | +12.1% | 4/10 | Year-end bank rotation, value gap closing |
| 5 months | Jan 16, 2027 | $220.50 | — | +15.0% | 4/10 | January effect, fair-value gravity pulls higher |
| 6 months | Feb 16, 2027 | $225.00 | — | +17.3% | 4/10 | Grind toward baseline as discount narrows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $231.81 (+20.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $191.74 |
| Composite fair value | $288.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $313.82 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $288.70 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $175.00 |
| Value net score | +18 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +35 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.4% 3m 23.7% 6m 24.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.03 3m 0.71 5m 0.74 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 51.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | STT-20260816-001049-c9ce |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-STT-20260816-002938-f16e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-STT-20260816-002938-f16e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-STT-20260816-002938-f16e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-STT-20260816-002938-f16e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | STT-20260816-001049-c9ce |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $191.74 | $225.00 | +17.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $183.30 | $176.00 | -4.0% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.