Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$41.65
6-month call
Bear -19.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$33.50
Great value below
$22.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-19.6% to $33.50
Predicted High
$42.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$33.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-19.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:41 am
Bear
TATT trends lower to
$33.50
(-19.6% from $41.65)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTATT trades roughly 3x composite fair value on aerospace super-cycle narrative, but with no near-term catalyst, weak earnings track record, and high beta into a fragile risk-on regime, value gravity should slowly reassert. Expect choppy sideways action near-term as momentum persists, then a gradual fade as story premium compresses.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $46 on volume or a strong earnings beat would invalidate the fade; conversely a break below $34 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $41.65 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $41.65 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $35.91–$47.39 typical range · internal point $42.10 | — | ±13.8% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry price briefly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $39.17 on Aug 19, 2026 = -6.0% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $33.34–$49.96 typical range · internal point $41.20 | — | ±20.0% | 5/10 | Narrative intact, mild consolidation near current levels |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $39.50 | — | -5.2% | 5/10 | Story premium starts to erode without fresh catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $37.80 | — | -9.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity engages, high beta amplifies any wobble |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $36.20 | — | -13.1% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline as sentiment cools |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $35.00 | — | -16.0% | 4/10 | Continued compression, aerospace enthusiasm fading |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $33.50 | — | -19.6% | 3/10 | Convergence toward fair value accelerates over horizon |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $36.57 (-12.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $41.65 |
| Composite fair value | $13.58 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $14.03 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $22.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +20 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.6% 3m 69.1% 6m 72.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.33 3m 1.77 5m 2.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TATT-20260803-120429-2966 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TATT-20260803-134434-33c1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TATT-20260803-134434-33c1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TATT-20260803-134434-33c1 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TATT-20260803-134434-33c1 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TATT-20260803-120429-2966 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TATT-20260803-120429-2966 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $41.65 | $33.50 | -19.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.