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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Tat Technologies Ltd. (TATT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-11): Designation Low · Cairn score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 20 · Value -69 · Sentiment 51 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $13.58 vs $38.75 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
TAT Technologies Ltd. is a leading provider of products and services to the commercial and military aerospace and ground defense industries. The company specializes in original equipment manufacturing of heat transfer solutions and aviation accessories, including heat exchangers, precoolers, oil coolers, environmental control systems, and power electronics cooling systems essential for aircraft machinery, electronics, and defense platforms. It also offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for aviation components such as auxiliary power units and landing gear, as well as specialized overhaul and coating for jet engine components like turbine vanes, blades, and afterburner flaps. Operating through key segments focused on thermal management, power and actuation, and MRO services, TAT Technologies supports airlines, OEMs, air forces, and defense agencies with innovative solutions that enhance operational efficiency and reliability. Founded in 1969 and headquartered in Netanya, Israel, the company maintains a global presence with state-of-the-art facilities to deliver precise, high-standard aerospace technologies.
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 11| Print date | EPS est. | EPS actual | Revenue est. | Revenue actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.33 | $0.35 +6.1% | — | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | $0.23 | $0.17 -26.1% | — | — |
| May 20, 2026 | $0.26 | $0.22 -15.4% | — | — |
| Apr 9, 2026 | $-0.07 | $-0.08 -14.3% | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | $0.41 | $0.40 -2.4% | — | — |
Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.
Recent SEC Filings
| Filed | Form | Document |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Jul 30, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G | View |
| Jul 28, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Jul 23, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Jul 17, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G | View |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Jul 6, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 144 | View |
Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
Tat Technologies Ltd. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.
This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 13 annual reports, the latest filed 2026-03-18, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.37
Total Equity: $176.39M
Shares: 12,283,312
Total Debt: $11.71M
Cash: $51.26M
EBITDA: $23.91M
Total Debt: $11.71M
Cash: $51.26M
Revenue: $178.02M
Revenue: $178.02M
Revenue: $178.02M
Total Equity: $176.39M
Tax Rate: 12.3%
Equity: $176.39M
Total Debt: $11.71M
Cash: $51.26M
Current Liabilities: $33.98M
Long-Term Debt: $9.49M
Total Debt: $11.71M
Total Equity: $176.39M
Shares: 12,283,312
Shares: 12,283,312
CapEx: -$10.95M
Shares: 12,283,312
Stock Price: $38.75
Net Income: $16.82M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:04pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $78.0M | $84.6M | $113.8M | $152.1M | $178.0M |
| Cost of Revenue | $66.7M | $68.6M | $91.3M | $119.1M | $133.9M |
| Gross Profit | $11.3M | $15.9M | $22.5M | $33.0M | $44.1M |
| Operating Expenses | $15.3M | $17.7M | $16.4M | $20.5M | $25.3M |
| Operating Income | -$4.0M | -$1.8M | $6.1M | $12.5M | $18.8M |
| Net Income | -$3.6M | -$1.6M | $4.7M | $11.2M | $16.8M |
| EBITDA | $846,000 | $1.9M | $10.8M | $18.0M | $23.9M |
| EPS | $-0.40 | $-0.18 | $0.52 | $1.08 | $1.39 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.40 | $-0.18 | $0.51 | $1.00 | $1.37 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:04pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $12.9M | $7.7M | $16.0M | $7.1M | $51.3M |
| Total Current Assets | $72.0M | $75.2M | $94.3M | $113.2M | $166.3M |
| Total Assets | $110.8M | $126.7M | $145.6M | $163.4M | $226.7M |
| Current Liabilities | $24.6M | $29.0M | $39.3M | $38.1M | $34.0M |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.0M | $19.4M | $12.9M | $10.9M | $9.5M |
| Total Liabilities | $34.0M | $51.1M | $54.9M | $51.4M | $50.3M |
| Total Equity | $76.8M | $75.6M | $90.7M | $112.0M | $176.4M |
| Retained Earnings | $10.2M | $8.6M | $13.3M | $24.4M | $41.3M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:04pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | — | -$4.9M | $2.3M | -$5.8M | $15.0M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$16.2M | -$16.2M | -$5.1M | -$5.1M | -$11.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | — | -$21.1M | -$2.8M | -$10.9M | $4.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $3.0M | $15.6M | $-989,000 | -$2.0M | -$2.1M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$11.1M | -$5.2M | $8.9M | -$9.5M | $44.1M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:04pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +8.4% | +34.6% | +33.7% | +17.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +41.3% | +41.1% | +46.9% | +33.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +56.0% | +442.3% | +105.8% | +50.5% |
| Net Income Growth | +56.1% | +399.1% | +139.0% | +50.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | +128.3% | +458.5% | +66.5% | +33.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:04pm (7d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-05 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2016-07-25 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2014-04-21 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2012-05-01 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2009-11-19 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2009-03-24 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2007-10-12 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2006-05-12 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2005-10-18 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2004-10-14 | $1.18 | — | — | — |
| 2003-06-27 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2003-01-02 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a coherent operational story that the synthesis engine is mispricing. Revenue went $78M→$85M→$114M→$152M→$178M over five years — that's a 23% CAGR, and 2025's 17% YoY on a larger base is deceleration but hardly stall-out. More importantly, gross margin walked from 14.5% (2021) to 24.8% (2025), and operating margin flipped from -5.1% to +10.6%. This is textbook operating leverage in a recovering aerospace MRO cycle, not accounting fiction. Net income of $16.8M on $178M revenue is real; ROIC of 12.1% on a nearly debt-free balance sheet ($11.7M debt vs $51.3M cash, current ratio 4.9x) is respectable for a small-cap industrial. The synthesis verdict claiming $13.58 fair value — a 65% discount — implies the market is hallucinating the entire earnings recovery, which is not what the P&L shows.
That said, the "Poor Cash Flow Quality" flag deserves real weight and the prior models undersell why. OpCF of $15.0M against NI of $16.8M is fine on the surface, but FCF of only $4.0M after $11.0M capex — on a business supposedly benefiting from a multi-year backlog — is thin. The gap between 90% earnings CAGR and single-digit FCF is likely working capital build (inventory + receivables for MRO growth), which is normal but means the "earnings" you're paying 28x for aren't yet cash. At $38.75 and ~$0.51B market cap, EV/FCF is roughly 115x — indefensible unless capex normalizes hard or working capital unwinds. The insider pattern is also worse than "Neutral": six consecutive same-day option-exercise-and-sell transactions in mid-2026 is not accumulation, it's mechanical monetization. Not a red flag, but not confidence-inspiring either.
Where I dissent from the models: the $14 DCF fair value is almost certainly using stale or overly punitive assumptions — probably anchoring on 2022-2023 profitability or applying a mature-industrial multiple to a business mid-transition. A more honest frame: at 2025 run-rate earnings of $16.8M growing 30-50% and normalizing to maybe 15-20% forward, a 20-22x forward P/E gets you to $25-30 fair value, not $14. The Market Forces "value trap masquerading as growth" call is lazy — TAT isn't reporting phantom revenue; it's reporting real revenue with a working-capital drag typical of inventory-heavy MRO scale-up. Where I dissent from the bulls: the fallen-angel narrative correctly notes there's no moat evidence, and aerospace MRO cyclicality is real. If commercial aerospace normalizes and defense budgets flatten post-2026, this same operating leverage runs in reverse — 25% gross margins could compress back to 18-20% fast, and then you're paying 28x peak earnings.
A careful contrarian would ask: why does a supposedly "critical single-source supplier" earn only 24.8% gross margins and 9.5% ROE? Real aerospace moats (HEI, TDG) run 35%+ gross and 20%+ ROIC. TAT's returns say "competent subcontractor riding a cycle," not "essential niche monopolist." The narrative layer is right that intensity is strong and durability is fragile — the stock already fell 40% from highs, meaning some air is out but not all. Fair value in my read: $28-32, using 18-20x normalized $1.60-1.80 EPS with modest growth. Current $38.75 embeds ~25% cycle-peak premium. Not a $14 stock, not a $50 stock. The models are directionally right (overvalued) but wildly wrong on magnitude — a $14 target would require the entire earnings base to be fictitious, and it isn't.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is that TAT is not a stagnant “mature earner” at all; it is a very small aerospace supplier that has already gone through a sharp earnings inflection. Revenue has risen from $78.0M in 2021 to $178.0M in 2025, a 2.3x increase in four years, while operating income moved from a $4.0M loss to $18.8M and net income from a $3.6M loss to $16.8M. That is not accounting noise alone. Gross margin expanded from 14.5% to 24.8%, operating margin from -5.1% to 10.6%, and ROIC reached 12.1%. This looks like a business benefiting from real volume recovery and mix improvement in commercial aerospace and defense MRO, not just a spreadsheet artifact. The balance sheet reinforces that read: $51.3M of cash against just $11.7M of debt on a $510M market cap gives it meaningful net cash and limits existential downside.
The more important question is not whether the business has improved, but whether the stock already discounts too much of that improvement. At $38.75, investors are paying about 28.3x earnings, 2.67x sales, and 19.5x EV/EBITDA for a company that generated only $4.0M of free cash flow in 2025. Even adjusting for growth, that is a rich multiple set for a niche industrial with sub-$200M revenue and clear cyclicality. The sticking point is capex and cash conversion: operating cash flow was $15.0M, respectable versus $16.8M of net income, but capex of $11.0M consumed most of it. If that capex is temporary growth investment, the earnings power is understated on an FCF basis; if it is structural to sustain the business, then the market is capitalizing earnings far too generously. My read is that the equity is pricing in another leg of margin expansion from 10.6% operating margin toward something like 12-14%, plus continued double-digit revenue growth. That can happen, but at this valuation there is not much room for normal aerospace lumpiness.
I therefore land moderately bearish on valuation, but not for the simplistic reason that some model says fair value is $14. That kind of deep-discount DCF conclusion seems disconnected from the actual operating trajectory. A company that has compounded revenue 25% annually since 2021, restored profitability, and built a net-cash balance sheet deserves a premium to sleepy industrial peers. The issue is that the current price seems to capitalize a best-case continuation. On 2025 numbers, the enterprise value is roughly $470M after netting cash, which is about 25x operating income for a business with 24.8% gross margins and modest free cash generation. For me, fair value is not collapse territory; it is more like the high $20s to low $30s unless cash flow catches up meaningfully.
The best argument against my caution is straightforward: these numbers may still under-earn the cycle. If 2025’s $11.0M capex was mostly expansionary, then normalized free cash flow could be closer to operating cash flow than reported FCF, and the stock is cheaper than it appears. Likewise, if commercial aerospace aftermarket demand and defense programs keep driving utilization, a business now at 10.6% operating margin could plausibly reach low-teens margins on $200M+ revenue. In that scenario, net income could move from $16.8M toward $22M-$25M without heroic assumptions, bringing the current share price down into the low-20s P/E on forward earnings. Given the clean balance sheet, a strategic premium is also not absurd for a niche supplier with hard-to-replace certifications and customer relationships. That is why I do not buy the extreme bear case.
What would change my mind is evidence that TAT can convert this accounting improvement into durable cash and sustain growth without stretching the capital base. If the next annual period shows revenue above $195M, operating margin holding above 10.5%, and free cash flow stepping up into at least the $10M-$12M range, I would be more constructive even around the current price because the cash conversion objection would weaken sharply. Conversely, if revenue growth slips to single digits, margins retrace below 9%, or capex stays elevated without a matching rise in operating cash flow, then the stock should de-rate hard because the current multiple only works if 2025 was a waypoint, not a peak.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a genuine multi-year operational turnaround, not an accounting fiction. Revenue scaled from $78M in 2021 to $178M in 2025 (25% CAGR), while net income swung from a $3.6M loss to $16.8M profit; gross margin lifted from ~14.5% to 24.8% and operating margin reached 10.6%. That is real volume recovery plus mix and operating leverage in aerospace thermal management and MRO. The balance sheet is a fortress—$51.3M cash, only $11.7M debt, equity $176M, current ratio 4.9, D/E 0.07—so there is no solvency or dilution overhang. Recent prints still show 17% revenue growth and 51% earnings growth. ROIC at 12% and ROE at 9.5% are respectable for a small hardware manufacturer exiting a trough. This is not a mature earner; it is a cyclical recovery that has executed.
Cash tells a harsher story. Operating cash flow of $15M looks adequate against $16.8M net income, yet $11M of capex leaves only $4M of free cash flow—roughly 24% conversion. At a $510M market cap and $38.75 share price the stock trades at 28x trailing earnings, 2.7x sales and 19.5x EV/EBITDA. Those multiples price in continued mid-teens growth and further margin expansion for years; they do not leave room for the cash conversion gap or for any slowdown in commercial aerospace rates. The prior models’ ~$14 DCF is too punitive given the growth trajectory and net-cash position, but $38.75 still embeds far more durability than a mid-teens-margin, cyclical supplier with modest ROIC has earned. I read the business as improved and the stock as stretched.
The strongest opposing case is that TAT sits in constrained niches with high switching costs and multi-year platform exposure, so the growth is structural rather than purely cyclical. Defense budgets remain elevated, OEM production is still normalizing, and a company that has just doubled revenue while expanding margins can justify 20–25x earnings if ROIC keeps climbing and growth capex today converts into higher FCF tomorrow. The stock is already off ~40% from its highs, so some re-rating risk is already realized; bulls can argue 28x on 50% earnings growth with a clean balance sheet is tolerable for a niche aerospace name until earnings catch the multiple. I discount that view because current 10.6% operating margins and 12% ROIC do not yet prove fortress economics, FCF remains thin, and narrative durability is explicitly fragile—any backlog or margin miss will compress the multiple hard.
Two clean quarters of FCF conversion above 70% of net income while holding 15%+ revenue growth, or disclosed multi-year backlog coverage well above 1.5x revenue with accretive mix, would force me to reassess the premium as partially earned. A sustained break below $25 without fundamental deterioration would flip the risk/reward enough to turn constructive.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · four lenses
Tat Technologies has produced a striking multi-year operating inflection: revenue compounded from $78.0M (2021) to $178.0M (2025), gross margin widened from 14.5% to 24.8%, and operating margin swung from -5.2% to +10.6%. Net income moved from -$3.6M to +$16.8M over the same span, and the balance sheet is clean with $51.3M liquid cash, $39.5M net cash, and an Altman Z of 8.03. Beneish M at -2.24 and OCF/NI at 0.99x in 2025 support that the reported earnings are real rather than accrual-driven (accruals 3.9% of assets).
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Source of the ~3.4M share increase since 2021 - equity raise, acquisition consideration, or option overhang
- Working-capital build detail (inventory vs receivables) explaining the persistent gap between net income and FCF
- Customer concentration in the MRO business (OEM vs airline vs defense mix)
- Backlog disclosure and whether margin gains reflect pricing, mix, or one-time contract wins
- Capex trajectory and whether 2025's $4M FCF is a sustainable run-rate or timing-driven
The composite fair value is $13.58 and the signal-adjusted number is $14.03 versus a $39.15 print, implying roughly 64% downside if the models are right. Even granting that an EPV floor understates a genuine aftermarket turnaround (rising MRO margins, defense tailwind, sticky single-source niches), doubling the deserved value to ~$28 still leaves the stock ~40% rich. The business is Solid, not Strong - 38% share count growth in four years and cumulative negative FCF argue against paying a premium multiple, not for one.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment-level MRO margin trajectory and whether recent expansion is mix or structural
- Free cash flow conversion in the next two prints - is cumulative FCF finally turning positive
- Any guidance on capex intensity and working capital as revenue scales
- Share issuance / dilution commentary and whether buyback is on the table
- Backlog composition (defense vs commercial) and customer concentration
The dominant force on TAT right now is narrative, not macro. A strong 'essential supplier to the aerospace super-cycle' story is running hot - intensity strong, cult medium - and it is doing the heavy lifting to hold the stock at $39 versus a fundamentals-implied $14. The May backlog-to-$580M print gave the story fresh fuel (a 21% single-day pop is a tell that momentum money is engaged), and the 25% CAGR tape confirms buyers keep showing up on dips. That is a real tailwind on THIS name because it is a small, retail-friendly aerospace story stock where narrative dominates price discovery. The macro tape is a mild net positive but largely a non-event here: regime is neutral-to-slightly-risk-on, VIX 16, S&P barely off highs, and TAT's beta near 1 means it neither gets amplified rescue nor punishment from the tape. The rate backdrop (10y 4.68%, market PE 26.9) is a background headwind for expensive story stocks, and TAT trades on sentiment multiples, so any risk-off flinch would hit it harder than its beta implies. Durability is the soft spot: the narrative is explicitly tagged fragile, and recent 17% trailing vs 25% long-term momentum shows the second-derivative is already cooling. Net, still a tailwind, but a tiring one - the kind that stays up as long as backlog headlines keep landing and cracks the moment one quarter disappoints.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Next earnings print - any backlog stall or margin miss would crack the fragile narrative fast
- Whether analyst target revisions confirm or lag the aerospace super-cycle story
- VIX moving above 20 or a sharper S&P pullback - would disproportionately hit sentiment-premium names like this
- Signs of the momentum cohort rotating out of small-cap aerospace into another theme
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.