Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$121.15
6-month call
Bull +16.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$141.00
Great value below
$108.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.4% to $141.00
Predicted High
$141.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$123.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:15 am
Bull
TD trends higher to
$141.00
(+16.4% from $121.15)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTD trades well below composite fair value ($172) with a strengthening fallen-angel narrative, risk-on tape, and strong momentum (+30% trailing 6m). Expect continued grind higher toward the deterministic baseline ($141), with the path front-loaded by momentum and sentiment, then moderating as value gravity partially closes the gap.
Invalidated ifA break below $115 support, regime flip to risk-off, or a negative regulatory/AML headline reviving the fallen-angel discount would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $121.15 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $121.15 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $116.63–$125.67 typical range · internal point $123.20 | — | ±3.7% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and momentum extend near-term drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $124.34 on Aug 17, 2026 = +2.6% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $114.60–$127.70 typical range · internal point $125.80 | — | ±5.4% | 6/10 | Rehabilitation narrative and low beta support steady climb |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $129.50 | — | +6.9% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent catalysts |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $133.00 | — | +9.8% | 5/10 | Earnings print likely reinforces beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $136.50 | — | +12.7% | 5/10 | Value convergence toward fair-value anchor continues |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $139.00 | — | +14.7% | 4/10 | Momentum fades; macro rate pressure caps upside |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $141.00 | — | +16.4% | 4/10 | Path settles near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $140.93 (+16.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $121.15 |
| Composite fair value | $172.43 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $175.71 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $172.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $108.00 |
| Value net score | +22 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +19 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.0% 3m 18.7% 6m 18.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.29 3m 0.67 5m 0.83 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 29.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | TD-20260804-000624-9465 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TD-20260804-005941-83c8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TD-20260804-005941-83c8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TD-20260804-005941-83c8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TD-20260804-005941-83c8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | TD-20260804-000624-9465 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $121.15 | $141.00 | +16.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.