Made on
Jul 28, 2026
Price at call
$334.77
6-month call
Bear -5.9%
Target by Jan 2027
$315.00
Great value below
$265.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.9% to $315.00
Predicted High
$320.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$272.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 28, 2026 12:37 am
Bear
TER trends lower to
$315.00
(-5.9% from $334.77)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisTER enters earnings into an AI-chip Asian selloff with beta 4.67 and risk-off regime, likely gapping down hard near-term; value lens flags overvaluation (attractive below $265) so the fade extends before stabilizing as AI-capex narrative reasserts over months.
Invalidated ifA clean earnings beat with strong AI-test guidance that holds above $340, or AI-chip selloff reversing within a week, would falsify the initial drawdown.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $334.77 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 28, 2026 | — | $334.77 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 11, 2026 | $266.59–$402.95 typical range · internal point $285.00 | — | ±20.4% | 7/10 | Earnings into AI selloff, high beta amplifies risk-off gap |
| What actually happened: closed $365.10 on Aug 10, 2026 = +9.1% vs the call (predicted -14.9%) · direction MISS (called down, was up) · off by 23.9 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±20.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 28, 2026 | $235.97–$433.57 typical range · internal point $272.00 | — | ±29.5% | 6/10 | Post-earnings digestion, value gravity toward $265 threshold |
| 2 months | Sep 28, 2026 | $278.00 | — | -17.0% | 5/10 | Stabilization near value zone as regime resets |
| 3 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $295.00 | — | -11.9% | 4/10 | AI-capex narrative rebuilds, quality lens supports bid |
| 4 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $310.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Next print approaches, sentiment normalizes |
| 5 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $320.00 | — | -4.4% | 3/10 | Year-end positioning, semi-cap recovery flows |
| 6 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $315.00 | — | -5.9% | 3/10 | Mean reversion below prior high, valuation cap |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $334.77 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 100.7% 3m 102.2% 6m 87.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.60 3m 4.67 5m 3.83 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 46.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | 5d behind | TER-20260722-030001-efc2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-TER-20260728-002713-a52f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-TER-20260728-002713-a52f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-TER-20260728-002713-a52f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-TER-20260728-002713-a52f |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | TER-20260728-000553-31c8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | TER-20260728-000553-31c8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $334.77 | $315.00 | -5.9% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.