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AGING Analysis Report
Jul 28, 2026
26 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Jul 28, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 22 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Teradyne, Inc. (TER) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -12 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 61 · Value -71 · Sentiment -100 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Teradyne, Inc.

TER NASDAQ
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
North Reading, MA 01864, United States teradyne.com Updated Jul 28, 12:01am
Price
$334.77
Market Cap
$52.4B
Employees
6,600
Beta
1.74
Avg Volume
4,721,527
Last Dividend
$0.50
CEO
Mr. Gregory Stephen Smith

Teradyne, Inc. is a technology company that designs, develops, and manufactures automated test equipment and advanced robotics systems for global electronics and manufacturing markets. Its semiconductor and electronics test solutions are used to verify the performance and reliability of chips, circuit boards, wireless devices, and complex electronic systems across industries such as consumer electronics, automotive, industrial, computing, communications, and aerospace and defense. Teradyne’s robotics business, including brands like Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots, provides collaborative robotic arms and autonomous mobile robots that support manufacturing, logistics, and warehouse operations for companies of various sizes. These systems help customers improve production efficiency, quality control, and material handling. The company operates globally with a significant presence in the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Europe, Middle East and Africa regions, serving many leading semiconductor manufacturers and advanced manufacturing customers. Founded in 1960 and headquartered in North Reading, Massachusetts, Teradyne today plays a central role in test, measurement, and industrial automation within the broader semiconductor and electronics supply chain.

Runs with full report
Price Overview
Price at report time
$334.77
as of Jul 28, 12:17am (26d ago)
Change · Jul 28
-15.15 (-4.33%)
Day Range
$319.61 – $355.25
52-Week Range
$89.18 – $487.91
50-Day MA
$379.72
200-Day MA
$285.34
Volume
4,142,753.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 26d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 156,540,000.00
Float 156,214,989.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:27am (26d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:27am (26d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 28, 2026 12:14am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
96.48
Stock Price: $334.77
EPS (Diluted): 3.47
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
19.12
Stock Price: $334.77
Total Equity: $2.80B
Shares: 159,667,723
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
64.43
Market Cap: $52.41B
Total Debt: $283.24M
Cash: $293.75M
EBITDA: $826.64M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$53.3B
Market Cap: $52.41B
Total Debt: $283.24M
Cash: $293.75M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
58.2%
Gross Profit: $1.86B
Revenue: $3.19B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
21.6%
Operating Income: $688.61M
Revenue: $3.19B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
17.4%
Net Income: $554.05M
Revenue: $3.19B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
19.8%
Net Income: $554.05M
Total Equity: $2.80B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
21.7%
Operating Income: $688.61M
Tax Rate: 12.1%
Equity: $2.80B
Total Debt: $283.24M
Cash: $293.75M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.75
Current Assets: $1.95B
Current Liabilities: $1.12B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.10
Short-Term Debt: $219.34M
Long-Term Debt: $63.90M
Total Debt: $283.24M
Total Equity: $2.80B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$19.98
Revenue: $3.19B
Shares: 159,667,723
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$17.51
Total Equity: $2.80B
Shares: 159,667,723
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.82
Operating CF: $674.42M
CapEx: -$224.01M
Shares: 159,667,723
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.1%
Last Dividend: $0.50
Stock Price: $334.77
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
13.8%
Dividends Paid: -$76.31M
Net Income: $554.05M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 28, 2026 12:11am
Compares TER against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:27am (26d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.7B $3.2B $2.7B $2.8B $3.2B
Cost of Revenue $1.5B $1.3B $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B
Gross Profit $2.2B $1.9B $1.5B $1.6B $1.9B
Operating Expenses $996.6M $1.0B $1.0B $1.1B $1.2B
Operating Income $1.2B $849.1M $522.3M $552.2M $688.6M
Net Income $1.0B $715.5M $448.8M $542.4M $554.0M
EBITDA $1.3B $972.0M $661.5M $690.9M $826.6M
EPS $6.19 $4.52 $2.91 $3.41 $3.48
EPS (Diluted) $5.56 $4.22 $2.73 $3.32 $3.47
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 24, 2026 3:06am (30d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.1B $854.8M $757.6M $553.4M $293.8M
Total Current Assets $2.6B $2.3B $2.2B $1.8B $1.9B
Total Assets $3.8B $3.5B $3.5B $3.7B $4.2B
Current Liabilities $805.1M $746.3M $660.0M $624.6M $1.1B
Long-Term Debt $145.4M $64.2M $65.1M $57.9M $63.9M
Total Liabilities $1.2B $1.0B $960.9M $889.4M $1.4B
Total Equity $2.6B $2.5B $2.5B $2.8B $2.8B
Retained Earnings $736.6M $725.7M $706.5M $970.8M $744.4M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:27am (26d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.1B $577.9M $585.2M $672.2M $674.4M
Capital Expenditure -$132.5M -$163.2M -$159.6M -$198.1M -$224.0M
Free Cash Flow $965.9M $414.7M $425.6M $474.1M $450.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$12.0M $0 $0 $0 -$144.4M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid -$66.0M -$69.7M -$67.9M -$76.4M -$76.3M
Stock Buybacks -$600.0M -$752.1M -$397.2M -$198.6M -$702.1M
Net Change in Cash $208.1M -$267.4M -$97.2M -$204.2M -$259.6M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:27am (26d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -14.8% -15.2% +5.4% +13.1%
Gross Profit Growth -15.4% -17.7% +7.3% +12.6%
Operating Income Growth -29.8% -38.5% +5.7% +24.7%
Net Income Growth -29.5% -37.3% +20.9% +2.2%
EBITDA Growth -26.0% -31.9% +4.4% +19.7%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 24, 2026 3:06am (30d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-21 $0.13
2026-02-13 $0.12
2025-11-24 $0.12
2025-09-05 $0.12
2025-05-22 $0.12
2025-02-14 $0.12
2024-11-25 $0.12
2024-09-05 $0.12
2024-05-21 $0.12
2024-02-15 $0.12
2023-11-24 $0.11
2023-08-31 $0.11
2023-05-23 $0.11
2023-02-16 $0.11
2022-11-25 $0.11
2022-08-30 $0.11
2022-05-24 $0.11
2022-02-17 $0.11
2021-11-23 $0.10
2021-08-31 $0.10
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 16 computed · 6 not applicable · 2 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:08
0.1 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +12%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 87%. Ratio 0.1:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($334.77)
Bull — recovery +82% 29.6% $374.40 +12%
Base — stabilizes +55% 25.8% $178.00 -47%
Bear — keeps slipping +27% 21.9% $77.56 -77%
Stress — last quarter repeats +4% 23.6% $43.05 -87%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-28) — growth stays at 4.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.92). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +95.2% · operating income +330.6% · net income +336.3% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 28, 2025 (revenue +4.3%, operating income -4.5% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 28, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TER — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-28 00:26:53
Verdict Dissent mildly from synthesis

Starting with the raw tape: TER's quarterly trajectory is not what a 96x P/E should look like. Q1 2025 revenue of $685.7M is *down* sequentially from Q4 2024's $752.9M, and net margin compressed hard to 14.4% from 19.4%. Yes, Q1 is seasonally soft and up 14% YoY from the $599.8M trough, but the 2024 margin peak of 25.5% in Q2 already looks like a local high that won't be repeated soon. Annual 2025 revenue of $3.19B is still 14% below the 2021 peak of $3.70B, and 2025 net income of $554M is roughly half of 2021's $1.01B. Operating margin has compressed from 32.7% (2021) to 21.6% (2025) — that's a 1,100bp structural give-back, not a rounding error. FCF of $450M against a $52B market cap is a 0.86% FCF yield. That is venture-like pricing for a business whose FCF CAGR is 2.9%.

Where I disagree with the prior models: the "mature_earner" classification from the rule-based layer is wrong, and the pre-flight "cyclical-platform-hybrid" is closer to right. Mature earners don't post -46% peak-to-trough earnings swings (2021 $1.01B → 2023 $448.8M) and then get re-rated to 96x on hopes of a cycle turn. The synthesis verdict of "Priced for Perfection" is directionally correct but I think under-weights the deceleration already visible in Q1 2025. The market-forces layer flagging a "2026-2027 revenue cliff" from equipment replacement dynamics is the most useful contrarian input in this file, and it's inconsistent with the narrative layer's "moderate durability" framing — those two views can't both be right. If ATE (automated test equipment) demand front-loaded into 2024-2025 on AI/HBM test intensity, then 2026 comps get ugly fast, and the current multiple has zero room for that.

The contrarian argument that isn't being made forcefully enough: Teradyne's ROIC of 21.7% and ROE of 19.8% are fine but not extraordinary — and they're computed off a depressed equity base. Normalize earnings to mid-cycle $800M (splitting the difference between 2021's $1.01B and 2023's $449M) and you get ~$65 EPS-equivalent, so 20x normalized is $200B — er, $200/share fair value on normalized. Even generously granting mid-cycle of $900M NI as the pre-flight suggests, 25x that = $22.5B enterprise value fair, versus current $52B. The stock has to earn its way into this multiple via AI test intensity being genuinely structural (HBM, co-packaged optics, advanced packaging test) AND robotics reaching real scale. Robotics (UR/MiR) has been "about to inflect" for five years and remains a rounding error on margins. Insider activity showing two sales in July 2026 (which is a suspicious date — data anomaly, possibly a typo for 2025 or 2024) is minor but not a confidence signal; nobody is buying at these levels.

Data quality flags: the insider transaction dates are in the future (2026-07-15), which is either stale/corrupted or timestamped incorrectly — I'd not weight them. Annual 2025 numbers being present alongside a Q1 2025 quarterly datapoint suggests the annual figure may be a projection or trailing composite; worth verifying before anchoring. The FCF CAGR of 2.9% against an earnings CAGR of 11.1% is a red flag for earnings quality on a multi-year basis — capex intensity is rising or working capital is absorbing cash, and this deserves more scrutiny than the "Strong Cash Flow Quality" tag suggests. Recent earnings YoY of just 2.2% versus revenue YoY of 13.1% confirms margin compression is live, not theoretical. I concur with the synthesis verdict but would price it more aggressively to the downside: fair value in a $180-220 range on normalized earnings and a reasonable (but still premium) 20-25x multiple, not the $335 tape. The AI test intensity story is real but already 2x over-earned in the multiple, and any Q2/Q3 2025 guide-down turns this into a $250 stock fast. Position accordingly: this is a short candidate on a rip, not a buy on a dip until the multiple compresses meaningfully.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-28 00:27:12
Verdict I agree with Opus on direction but not extremity — TER is materially overvalued at $335, though my fair value is closer to $210-250 than Opus’s $180-220 because the franchise quality merits a premium even if the current AI-cycle multiple does not.

What jumps out to me is not simply “cyclical semiconductor equipment with a rich multiple,” but a business that has recovered enough to look optically better while still failing the basic test of valuation support. Revenue has climbed from $2.68B in 2023 to $2.82B in 2024 and $3.19B in the latest annual figure, so the top line is no longer in a downturn. But earnings have not recovered proportionally: net income is only $554M versus $715M in 2022 and $1.01B in 2021, while quarterly net margins have swung from 10.7% in Q1 2024 to 25.5% in Q2 2024 and back down to 14.4% in Q1 2025. That tells me the issue is not a broken franchise; it is that TER remains a volume-sensitive, mix-sensitive equipment name whose earnings power is far less stable than the current $52.4B equity value implies. A company on roughly $3.2B of revenue, $674M of operating cash flow, and $450M of free cash flow is being priced like a software compounder. Even if the balance sheet is clean with cash roughly matching debt, that does not rescue a 16.8x sales, 64x EV/EBITDA, 96x earnings setup.

The deeper story I see is that the market is capitalizing TER on peak expectations before peak economics have actually shown up. Gross margin at 58.2% is still healthy, and ROIC above 21% says this is a good business, but operating margin of 21.6% is dramatically below the 32.7% achieved in 2021. More importantly, the quarterly cadence says the recovery is not broad enough to justify a heroic multiple: Q1 2025 revenue of $685.7M was up from $599.8M a year earlier, yet net income only rose from $64.2M to $98.9M, leaving margin still well below the stronger 2024 quarters. In other words, TER is getting some cyclical revenue rebound without proving that higher demand will convert into sustainably elevated profit. If I strip away the AI aura and look at this as an equipment vendor with mid-cycle earnings somewhere around the 2022-2025 range, I do not see how the stock deserves more than a premium industrial-tech multiple on normalized earnings and cash flow. At $334.77, the market is assuming not just recovery, but a structurally better Teradyne than the one that earned $1.01B at the last cycle peak.

On Opus’s narrative, I agree with the central claim that “the quarterly trajectory is not what a 96x P/E should look like.” That is plainly right; a stock on this multiple should not be showing quarterly margins bouncing between 14% and 20% with earnings growth lagging revenue growth. I also agree with Opus that the rule-based “mature_earner” label is wrong. A company whose annual revenue went from $3.70B in 2021 to $2.68B in 2023 and whose net income fell from $1.01B to $448.8M is not a stable mature earner in any valuation-relevant sense. I further agree with Opus’s dismissal of the insider data and annual/quarterly timing inconsistencies; the 2026 sale dates are obviously unusable, and the dataset should not be treated as pristine. Where I disagree is with Opus’s framing that the 1,100bp operating-margin decline is “structural.” The raw numbers do not prove structural erosion; they prove cyclicality and incomplete recovery. Gross margin in 2025 at 58.2% versus 59.7% in 2022 and 59.7% implied from 2021’s gross profit/revenue suggests the core economics have softened only modestly. The larger hit is operating leverage, which can recover if volume and mix improve. I would not underwrite that recovery at today’s price, but I also would not call the margin give-back structural on this evidence alone.

I also disagree with Opus’s valuation math and short call. Opus argues for fair value in a $180-220 range and even says “20x normalized is $200B — er, $200/share fair value,” which is obviously a numerical stumble and, more importantly, too severe in conclusion relative to the quality of the franchise. TER is expensive, but it is not junky: net cash-ish balance sheet, 58% gross margins, 20% ROE, and positive FCF through a downcycle deserve a premium. If normalized net income is $800M-$900M, then a 30-35x multiple is rich but plausible for a category leader with AI-linked upside, which gets you closer to a $24B-$31.5B equity value, or roughly $150-$200 per share if one uses a rough share count inferred from market cap and price. That still implies major downside from $335, but I am not as aggressive as Opus on “short candidate on a rip” because the stock can remain detached from near-term fundamentals if AI-test enthusiasm persists. I do agree with Opus that the prior synthesis understates how much future success is already embedded, but I think he overstates the immediacy of a cliff. The data show volatility and overearning in the multiple; they do not yet show a collapse in the business.

A careful skeptic of both my view and Opus’s would say we are both anchoring too hard to trailing earnings on a company whose value may sit in a coming test-intensity step-up rather than current margins. They would point out that revenue has already reaccelerated from $2.68B to $3.19B, that Q1 2025 was still up 14% year over year, and that if TER can push back toward even 2022 profitability on a larger revenue base, the earnings denominator can change quickly. They would also note that P/E is especially misleading during cyclical trough-to-recovery periods. That skepticism is fair. But even granting it, today’s valuation leaves almost no room for execution slips, and that is the decisive fact.

Grok Reading
Grok (xAI) reads the identical raw briefing blind — one of the Big-3 independent readings — and commits to its own verdict.
No Grok reading yet for TER — it's generated by the pipeline (grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-28 00:33:11
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality name - wait for the dip, do nothing here 8/10
Teradyne is a genuinely high-quality semi-cap franchise (+61) trading rich (-71) into a Strong Headwind (-100) AI-chip selloff and earnings print - right business, wrong price, wrong moment.
The cruxWhether tonight's earnings print and the Asian AI-chip unwind mark the moment the 'priced for perfection' multiple compresses back toward mid-cycle fair value in the $250-275 zone.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TER's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+61
Strong
edge √Σ 139 · risk √Σ 78 · conf 8/10

Teradyne prints real cash: FCF of $450M in the most recent year on $3.19B revenue (about 14% FCF margin), with OCF/NI of 1.13x and accruals of -1.7% of assets. Earnings integrity looks pristine on the mechanical checks (Beneish -2.14, Altman Z 24.45), gross margins are steady in the high-50s (58-60% across five years), and the balance sheet is essentially unlevered with $322M cash and $39M net cash. Share count has been shrinking at a -3.3% CAGR with buybacks running 9.6x SBC, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than eroded - a hallmark of a mature, shareholder-conscious operator. The main quality caveat is cyclicality: revenue fell from $3.70B (2021) to $2.68B (2023) and operating margin compressed from 32.7% to 19.5% before recovering only modestly to 21.6%. That is a meaningful trough in operating leverage that hasn't fully snapped back even as revenue recovered to $3.19B, suggesting either mix shift, pricing pressure, or higher opex base. Insider activity is small routine selling with no directional signal. Overall this reads as a durable, well-run semi-cap franchise - not a fortress because of the inherent cyclical earnings swings and the fact that operating margins haven't reclaimed prior peaks, but clearly a high-integrity business with strong cash conversion and disciplined capital allocation.

Strengths 4
m78
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.13x, accruals -1.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.14, Altman Z 24.45 - no red flags; reported earnings are backed by cash.
m72
Fortress balance sheet
$322M liquid cash, $39M net cash, self-funding on $450M annual FCF - zero solvency risk and no reliance on capital markets.
m70
Genuine buyback discipline
Diluted shares down from 182.5M (2021) to 159.7M (2025), a -3.3% CAGR, with buyback/SBC at 961% - per-share value is being concentrated.
m55
Durable gross margin
GM% held in a tight 57.4-59.6% band across a full cyclical swing, implying real pricing power and moat in ATE.
Concerns 3
m60
Operating margin has not recovered
OpM collapsed from 32.7% (2021) to 19.5% (2023) and is only back to 21.6% (2025) despite revenue recovering to $3.19B - operating leverage is weaker than prior peak.
m45
Cyclical earnings volatility
Net income swung from $1.01B (2021) to $449M (2023), a >55% peak-to-trough drop; FCF also halved from $966M to $415M - inherent to semi-cap but real.
m20
Minor insider selling
Two small S-sales totaling ~$1.85M in trailing period; not a red flag but no offsetting insider buying.
This is a high-quality, well-run cyclical - not a compounder-fortress, but genuinely clean. The earnings are real, the cash conversion is strong, and management is actually shrinking the share count rather than diluting through SBC, which is rare enough to be worth crediting. What keeps me from calling it Fortress is the honest fact that operating margins took a real hit in the down-cycle and have not fully recovered, which tells me either the mix has shifted or the cost base has permanently stepped up. I'd want to understand that before treating it as a pristine compounder. As a business, though, I'd own this all day - it's a disciplined, cash-rich, low-leverage franchise in a structurally advantaged niche.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Why operating margin has not recovered to prior peak despite revenue rebound - mix shift toward Robotics/lower-margin segments, or elevated R&D/opex?
  • Customer concentration in Semiconductor Test segment (historically heavy exposure to a few large mobile/HPC customers).
  • Robotics segment (UR + MiR) trajectory and whether it is a drag on consolidated margins.
  • Backlog and book-to-bill trends to gauge cycle position.
  • Any convertible or off-balance-sheet obligations behind the $283M gross debt figure implied.
Valuation / Mispricing
-71
Rich
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 103 · conf 7/10
Price $334.77 vs deserved ~$260 mid-cycle - roughly 20-25% above fair, negative margin of safety. attractive below $265.00

The e2e synthesis flags 'Priced for Perfection' and the market cap of ~$52.4B is being paid for a company whose operating margins just round-tripped through a cyclical trough. On mid-cycle assumptions, semi-test EPS power is probably in the $4-5 range and robotics is still sub-scale on margins; a 25-30x mid-cycle multiple on a cyclical (even a high-quality one) gets you to a deserved value in roughly the $230-280 zone. Paying $334.77 implies the market is capitalizing peak-of-cycle earnings from AI/HBM test tailwinds at a full multiple - a double-count.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Quality-adjusted deserved value is above trough math
High earnings quality, real buybacks (share count shrinking), and clean cash conversion mean deserved value sits above a simple mid-cycle print - just not above $335.
m20
AI/HBM test secular tailwind is real
If AI test intensity is a durable step-change rather than a cycle peak, mid-cycle EPS re-rates higher and today's price looks less stretched - but that is the bull case having to be right.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Priced-for-perfection synthesis
The e2e valuation composite explicitly labels this Priced for Perfection at $334.77, meaning multiple methods concur that current price already discounts a clean AI-test upcycle.
m60
Cyclical earnings capitalized at full multiple
Semi-test capex is cyclical and margins round-tripped in the last downturn; paying a growth multiple on what may be peak or near-peak EPS is the classic semi-cap trap.
m45
Robotics not yet a valuation offset
UR/MiR margins are being competed down and the segment is not large enough to underwrite the multiple - it is optionality, not a second earnings engine today.
I like the business but I do not like the price. This is a high-quality cyclical being valued like a secular compounder because AI test is having its moment. Deserved value on mid-cycle math is somewhere around $250-275; at $335 I am paying up for a scenario that has to keep breaking right. Not a short - just not a buy here. I want it in the $260s before I get interested, and closer to $220 to get excited.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Next-quarter guide on SOC test bookings and HBM/AI test mix - is the tailwind broadening or concentrating?
  • Robotics segment revenue growth and segment operating margin trajectory
  • Management commentary on customer capex plans for 2025 (memory vs logic)
  • Buyback pace and remaining authorization
  • Any one-time items inflating current EPS run-rate
General Sentiment
-100
Strong Headwind
tail √Σ 46 · head √Σ 157 · conf 8/10

The tape just turned risk-off (VIX 18.7, S&P -2.6% off highs) at the worst possible moment for TER: KOSPI just crashed 8% on an AI chip selloff hours before SK Hynix and Teradyne itself print earnings. With a beta of 1.74 and roughly 70% of revenue explicitly tied to the AI narrative per recent coverage, this stock is a high-torque expression of exactly the trade that is unwinding overnight. The narrative premium the market has been paying is 'AI supercycle extends through 2026' - and that assumption is being stress-tested in real time. Narrative-wise the archetype is a steady compounder with moderate intensity and low cult, so there is no fanatical retail base to defend the tape - holders are institutional value managers who trim into macro shocks and disappointing prints. The stock has nearly doubled in 2026 into an earnings event framed as 'priced for perfection,' which creates asymmetric downside if the guide is anything short of pristine. News flow is entirely event-gated on the July 28 print, and the setup going in is hostile: Asia red, peers (FORM) flagged for valuation/trade risk, and a macro backdrop of 4.69% 10y and 26.6 market PE offering no cushion. Net: sentiment pressure is decisively negative into the catalyst. Even a good print may be sold given the tape; a soft print into this setup would be punished disproportionately given the beta and AI-concentration framing.

Tailwinds 2
m35
Institutional, not cult, holder base
Low cult coefficient and value-manager ownership means less forced-selling panic than a retail momo name would see; drawdowns tend to be orderly.
m30
Durable secular narrative still intact
The AI/test capex story has moderate durability - a clean print could quickly reassert the bull narrative even if the tape is ugly, because the story itself is not broken.
Headwinds 5
m88
AI chip selloff hitting the wire pre-print
KOSPI -8% on an AI chip selloff the night before TER's Q2 report is a direct hit - TER is the AI-test proxy and will open marked to the Asian tape.
m78
High beta amplifies a risk-off tape
Beta 1.74 into a VIX-18.7, risk-off regime means broad market pressure lands roughly 1.7x on this name versus the index.
m75
Priced-for-perfection into a binary catalyst
Stock has nearly doubled YTD with 70% of revenue tied to AI; media framing is explicitly 'is this priced in?' - classic setup where anything short of a beat-and-raise gets sold.
m55
Peer read-through is cautious
FormFactor coverage flags valuation and trade risk despite AI/HBM momentum - sell-side is hedging the semi-cap AI trade broadly, which colors TER's tone.
m45
Macro backdrop offers no cushion
10y at 4.69% and market PE 26.6 leave no room for multiple expansion; high-beta cyclicals de-rate first when the tape wobbles.
This is a bad setup regardless of what the business is worth. A high-beta AI-test name that has doubled YTD is walking into earnings with an AI chip selloff literally hitting the tape the same night, in a risk-off regime with no macro cushion. The narrative is not broken but it is being actively pressure-tested, and the holder base is institutional value - they will trim, not defend. Net pressure is a Strong Headwind into and probably through the print; the only clean reversal is a genuinely great guide that forces shorts and de-risked longs back in.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • July 28 Q2 print and 2H guide - specifically SoC test and HBM commentary
  • SK Hynix earnings and any capex commentary as an AI-capex tell
  • Whether the KOSPI AI selloff extends to US semi-caps at the open or fades
  • Sell-side target revisions in the 48h after the print
  • VIX behavior - a break above 20 would confirm the risk-off regime is entrenched
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -5.9% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Jul 28, 2026, TER was $334.77. We expect it to be $315.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $265.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 28, 2026.

Price when predicted$334.77
Our estimate for Jan 2027$315.00-5.9%
Great value below$265.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06