TEVA
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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$37.34
6-month call
Bear -21.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$29.20
Great value below
$22.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-21.8% to $29.20
Predicted High
$37.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$29.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-21.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:08 pm
Bear
TEVA trends lower to
$29.20
(-21.8% from $37.34)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisNear-term sentiment tailwinds (FDA priority review, patent win) and risk-on regime support TEVA above $37 for a few weeks, but rich valuation vs sub-$12 fair value and forensic caution pull the stock lower over the multi-month horizon toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $42 on positive pipeline catalyst, or a break below $30 accelerating the fade, would invalidate this measured decay path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $37.34 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $37.34 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $34.53–$40.15 typical range · internal point $37.90 | — | ±7.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment lift and risk-on regime extend near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $33.27–$41.41 typical range · internal point $37.20 | — | ±10.9% | 6/10 | Narrative digestion, low beta keeps price rangebound |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $35.60 | — | -4.7% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins pulling as catalysts fade |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $33.80 | — | -9.5% | 5/10 | Quality and forensic drag reassert on rally exhaustion |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $32.10 | — | -14.0% | 4/10 | Year-end tax-loss and mean reversion pressure |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $30.50 | — | -18.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline as story cools |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $29.20 | — | -21.8% | 4/10 | Approach deterministic $28 endpoint, deep value gap persists |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $28.03 (-24.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $37.34 |
| Composite fair value | $10.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $10.30 |
| DCF fair value | $11.70 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $22.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -2 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.3% 3m 37.7% 6m 38.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.05 3m -0.15 5m 0.41 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 9.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | TEVA-20260822-150444-a30b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEVA-20260822-151922-e0ae |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEVA-20260822-151922-e0ae |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEVA-20260822-151922-e0ae |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEVA-20260822-151922-e0ae |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | TEVA-20260822-150444-a30b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | TEVA-20260822-150444-a30b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $37.34 | $29.20 | -21.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.