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FRESH Analysis Report
Aug 22, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +108.4% growth but recent quarters show operating income -62.6% YoY (through 2026-06-30) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 22, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 23, 2026
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -34 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -2 · Value -60 · Sentiment 30 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $10.69 vs $37.34 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

TEVA NYSE
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Tel Aviv-Yafo, 6944020, Israel tevapharm.com Updated Aug 22, 3:04pm
Price
$37.34
Market Cap
$43.5B
Employees
31,173
Beta
0.88
Avg Volume
5,370,654
Last Dividend
$0.85
CEO
Mr. Richard D. Francis

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ADR represents shares of an Israeli-based global pharmaceutical company focused on developing, manufacturing, and marketing medicines across multiple therapeutic areas. Teva is widely recognized for its large portfolio of generic drugs, which provide cost-effective alternatives to branded treatments and support healthcare systems in controlling medication expenditure. Alongside generics, Teva offers specialty and biopharmaceutical products in fields such as central nervous system disorders, respiratory conditions, oncology, and other chronic diseases. The company serves hospitals, pharmacies, healthcare providers, and wholesalers across North America, Europe, and a broad range of international markets through regionally organized business segments. Teva also engages in the sale of active pharmaceutical ingredients and provides contract manufacturing services, reinforcing its role in the wider pharmaceutical supply chain. Founded in 1901 and headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ADR gives investors exposure to one of the world’s leading players in generic and branded pharmaceutical products.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 22, 2026 3:11pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$37.34
as of Aug 22, 3:04pm (1d ago)
Change · Aug 22
+0.53 (+1.44%)
Day Range
$36.65 – $37.75
52-Week Range
$17.77 – $37.83
50-Day MA
$33.88
200-Day MA
$31.95
Volume
4,300,100.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 1d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,165,296,084.00
Float 1,087,046,452.00
Free Float 93.3%
High free float — 93.3% of shares trade freely, ~6.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:19pm (1d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:19pm (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 22, 2026 3:09pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
30.86
Stock Price: $37.34
EPS (Diluted): 1.21
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.49
Stock Price: $37.34
Total Equity: $7.91B
Shares: 1,163,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.98
Market Cap: $43.51B
Total Debt: $1.82B
Cash: $3.56B
EBITDA: $3.16B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$41.0B
Market Cap: $43.51B
Total Debt: $1.82B
Cash: $3.56B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
51.8%
Gross Profit: $8.94B
Revenue: $17.26B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
12.5%
Operating Income: $2.16B
Revenue: $17.26B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
8.2%
Net Income: $1.41B
Revenue: $17.26B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
17.8%
Net Income: $1.41B
Total Equity: $7.91B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
40.1%
Operating Income: $2.16B
Tax Rate: -14.7%
Equity: $7.91B
Total Debt: $1.82B
Cash: $3.56B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.04
Current Assets: $13.95B
Current Liabilities: $13.46B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.23
Short-Term Debt: $1.82B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $1.82B
Total Equity: $7.91B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$14.84
Revenue: $17.26B
Shares: 1,163,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6.80
Total Equity: $7.91B
Shares: 1,163,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.99
Operating CF: $1.65B
CapEx: -$501.00M
Shares: 1,163,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.3%
Last Dividend: $0.85
Stock Price: $37.34
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.41B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 22, 2026 3:09pm
Compares TEVA against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:19pm (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $15.9B $14.9B $15.8B $16.5B $17.3B
Cost of Revenue $8.3B $8.0B $8.2B $8.5B $8.3B
Gross Profit $7.6B $7.0B $7.6B $8.1B $8.9B
Operating Expenses $5.9B $9.1B $7.2B $8.4B $6.8B
Operating Income $1.7B -$2.1B $433.0M -$303.0M $2.2B
Net Income $417.0M -$2.4B -$559.0M -$1.6B $1.4B
EBITDA $3.0B -$791.0M $1.6B $756.0M $3.2B
EPS $0.38 $-2.12 $-0.50 $-1.45 $1.23
EPS (Diluted) $0.38 $-2.12 $-0.50 $-1.45 $1.21
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:04pm (1d ago)
Metric 2023 2023 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $3.2B $3.3B $3.6B
Total Current Assets $12.5B $12.6B $13.9B
Total Assets $43.1B $42.1B $43.5B $39.3B $40.7B
Current Liabilities $12.2B $12.8B $13.5B
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $35.5B $34.7B $35.4B $33.6B $32.8B
Total Equity $7.6B $7.4B $8.1B $5.7B $7.9B
Retained Earnings -$14.1B -$14.0B -$13.5B -$15.2B -$13.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:19pm (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $798.0M $1.6B $1.4B $1.2B $1.6B
Capital Expenditure -$562.0M -$548.0M -$526.0M -$498.0M -$501.0M
Free Cash Flow $236.0M $1.0B $842.0M $749.0M $1.1B
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$7.0M $0 -$15.0M $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$6.6B -$1.4B -$4.2B -$1.6B -$4.1B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $21.0M $636.0M $393.0M $74.0M $256.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:19pm (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -6.0% +6.2% +4.4% +4.3%
Gross Profit Growth -8.2% +9.6% +5.5% +10.8%
Operating Income Growth -222.3% +120.6% -170.0% +811.9%
Net Income Growth -664.3% +76.2% -193.2% +186.0%
EBITDA Growth -126.0% +300.5% -52.3% +317.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:04pm (1d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2017-11-27 $0.09
2017-08-25 $0.07
2017-06-01 $0.29
2017-02-28 $0.29
2016-12-01 $0.29
2016-08-18 $0.29
2016-05-20 $0.29
2016-02-25 $0.29
2015-11-13 $0.29
2015-08-18 $0.29
2015-05-15 $0.29
2015-02-17 $0.29
2014-11-13 $0.27
2014-08-19 $0.29
2014-05-16 $0.30
2014-02-20 $0.29
2013-11-18 $0.28
2013-08-16 $0.27
2013-05-16 $0.27
2013-02-19 $0.27
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-23 02:47
-0.4 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 33% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 91%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($37.34)
Bull — recovery +3% 17.3% $25.11 -33%
Base — stabilizes +2% 15.0% $21.29 -43%
Bear — keeps slipping +1% 12.8% $17.68 -53%
Stress — last quarter repeats -1% 2.0% $3.27 -91%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-30) — growth stays at -0.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +0.7% · operating income -56.8% · net income -141.7% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2026 (revenue -0.8%, operating income -150.8% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TEVA — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 15:28

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Low-single-digit top-line growth that is genuinely share-gaining inside a shrinking generics category, with a real specialty engine (Austedo/Uzedy/Ajovy) offsetting base erosion — but earnings power is hostage to charges, settlement cash and pricing, so 'Growing' means mid-single-digit, not the 41% the price assumes. conf 6/10
Share gain Category shrinking · Company revenue growing ~+4.3% YoY against a category shrinking ~-2.9% (industry -4.1% CAGR) — a ~7pp positive gap, driven by branded specialty additions rather than generic pricing.
Next 2 quarters
Holding
Matched-quarter revenue was only +0.7% and the quarterly trend is flagged decelerating, while specialty ramp is being offset by base generic erosion and unfavorable comps. Expect roughly flat-to-slightly-up revenue with lumpy, charge-affected earnings rather than a clean acceleration.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year shape is set by the specialty franchise annualizing and by deleveraging: revenue mid-single-digit at best, with the growth genuinely incremental to a shrinking category. Cost programs and lower interest expense should restore the earnings line versus the charge-hit quarter, but the top-line ceiling is structural.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Structural earnings power should rise modestly: specialty and pipeline (TL1A, olanzapine LAI, biosimilars) plus lower leverage more than offset generic base decay, so the franchise holds and grinds higher. But the category is contracting -4% and margins compress industry-wide, capping the slope well inside mid-single digits.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
63 Specialty branded ramp is the growth engine — CNS/movement-disorder franchise (Austedo family, Uzedy long-acting antipsychotic) plus Ajovy is compounding at double-digit rates off a base large enough to move total revenue. This is the mechanism behind company revenue +4.3% YoY while the category prints -2.9%: it is product-specific, contracted, and not price-dependent in the way generics are.
54 Measured share gain vs a declining category — Landscape data: industry revenue -4.1% CAGR, category median recent growth -2.75%, Teva +4.3% → ~+7.2pp gap. Sustained positive-year revenue record (all years positive, avg 4.36%, very low volatility 0.0004) says this is portfolio/mix-driven, not a one-quarter artifact.
30 Pipeline optionality with a validated partner — Anti-TL1A (duvakitug) partnered with a large-cap on IBD, olanzapine LAI, and a biosimilar queue give post-2027 revenue lines that do not depend on generic pricing. Partnered economics de-risk spend but also cap upside — relevant to years 2-3 rather than the next two prints.
35 Deleveraging converts flat revenue into better bottom-line slope — Multi-year FCF CAGR of +16.8% far outruns revenue CAGR of +4.4%, evidence that cash conversion and interest burden are improving. That mechanically lifts EPS growth above revenue growth even if the top line stays mid-single-digit.
Growth risks
67 Operating earnings collapse in the newest matched quarters — Matched-quarter YoY: revenue +0.7% but operating income -56.8% and net income -141.7%. Whether legal/impairment charges or genuine mix and pricing pressure, it shows earnings power is not tracking the top line and the quarterly trend is explicitly 'decelerating'.
57 Structural generic price erosion and industry margin compression — Industry operating margins -26.6pp and net margins -29.1pp over three years. Teva can gain share and still see the value of that share fall. Base generics is the majority of revenue, so mid-single-digit specialty growth is partly a treadmill against base decay.
38 Opioid/legal settlement cash and tail risk — Multi-year settlement payments are a fixed claim on the same FCF that funds deleveraging and specialty launch spend, and residual litigation can reappear as lumpy charges — exactly the pattern visible in the latest EPS print (0.02 vs 0.11 est).
27 Payer/policy and tariff exposure on a low-margin book — Macro headwinds, US drug-pricing policy and potential pharma tariffs bite hardest on high-volume, thin-margin generics manufactured across global sites. Little pricing power to absorb it.
18 Ajovy competitive erosion — CGRP class is crowded with orals and rival injectables; the migraine line is the weakest leg of the specialty story and could stall while Austedo carries the load alone.
The generics world is a volume business losing price: healthcare systems want the cost containment, but buying consortia and channel concentration keep extracting the margin, which is why industry operating and net margins have compressed by 20-30pp in three years. The durable winners are the ones who bolt branded, patent-protected CNS/biologic revenue onto a generics cash engine — which is precisely Teva's chosen shape. Policy (US pricing reform, potential pharma tariffs, onshoring pressure) raises the cost of the generics leg while doing little to the specialty leg, reinforcing that mix shift. So the world supports Teva's direction of travel but not its speed: the addressable growth is mid-single-digit revenue with faster earnings via deleveraging, not a step-change. Nothing in the macro or category data supplies a mechanism for the ~41% growth embedded in the price.
Growth position composite -6
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
50Next 2 quarters · Holding
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
-6Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-22 15:18:25
Verdict Overvalued but not catastrophically so — fair value $23-27 vs. synthesis's implausible $10.30; Q2 2026 -$576M loss undermines the turnaround narrative and warrants avoiding until specialty ramp reconfirms.

The raw numbers tell a more nuanced story than either the 30.9x P/E (implying a completed turnaround) or the $10.30 DCF anchor (implying wild overvaluation) suggest. Revenue trajectory is real but modest: $14.93B (2022) → $15.85B → $16.54B → $17.26B (2025), roughly 4-5% growth. Gross margin has held steady around 51-52%. The operating swing is dramatic — from -$2.10B op loss in 2022 to +$2.16B in 2025 — but that's largely litigation/impairment normalization, not underlying earnings power expanding 4x. Strip goodwill impairments and legal accruals and Teva's "normalized" operating margin is probably 15-18%, generating maybe $1.2-1.5B in sustainable net income on $17B revenue. That's what the $1.15B FCF confirms.

The most alarming data point everyone glossed over: Q2 2026 shows revenue of $4.14B with a **-$576M net loss**, snapping five consecutive profitable quarters. That's not noise — that's either a fresh litigation charge, an impairment, or something structural, and it directly undercuts the "turnaround complete" narrative that supports today's multiple. Coupled with a decelerating revenue trend (Q4'25 $4.71B → Q1'26 $3.98B → Q2'26 $4.14B) and insiders selling every share they exercise on 8/3, the setup for a re-rating lower is materially better than the setup for a re-rating higher. The synthesis's $10.30 fair value is where I part ways, though — that appears to anchor on a distressed-equity DCF that ignores $1.15B of real FCF and a genuinely deleveraged balance sheet ($1.82B debt vs. $3.56B cash is *net cash*, not distress).

Where I think the models over-shoot in opposite directions: the Valuation Synthesis at $10.30 is mechanically applying growth/margin haircuts appropriate to 2019-2022 Teva, not 2025 Teva with net cash and normalized ops. Meanwhile Pre-Flight and Market Forces correctly identify the "priced for perfection" problem but underweight that the 30.9x reported P/E is inflated by one-time items — normalized P/E on ~$1.3B run-rate earnings is closer to 33x, still expensive but not absurd for a generic-plus-specialty pharma with Austedo growing. A fair generic pharma multiple of 10-12x normalized earnings gets you $10-12/share of "generic Teva" value, plus $3B+ net cash cushion ($2.50/share), plus optional specialty pipeline value (Austedo, Ajovy, biosimilars) worth maybe $8-12/share if you believe the ramp. That triangulates to roughly $22-27 fair value, not $10 and not $37.

The contrarian long argument: Teva's opioid settlement is largely quantified and paid down, Austedo hit $1.6B+ run-rate and could double, and biosimilar Humira/Stelara offer real optionality — none of which shows up in a backwards-looking DCF. But the Q2 2026 loss is a warning shot, insider behavior is quietly bearish, and buying a 4-5% grower at 30x GAAP earnings requires believing specialty accelerates *and* generics stop deflating *and* no new litigation tail emerges — three independent bets. I dissent from the synthesis's magnitude (-72% is not credible given the balance sheet and cash flow) but agree with its direction. Fair value is roughly $23-27; current $37.34 embeds a specialty-drug success premium that Q2 2026 just made harder to defend. This is overvalued but not a short — it's a "wait for the Q3 print or a re-rating to mid-$20s before touching it" situation.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-22 15:18:41
Verdict Overvalued at $37.34 — the turnaround is real, but the stock already prices in stable specialty-like earnings that the latest quarter did not support; fair value looks closer to $24-$28.

Teva’s raw numbers look like a real operating recovery, but not one that justifies paying up as if the business has become a durable compounder. Revenue has climbed from $14.93B in 2022 to $17.26B in 2025, a solid 5% annualized recovery for a company many had written off, and the margin repair is more important than the top line: gross margin improved from 46.7% in 2022 to 51.8% in 2025, while operating income swung from -$2.10B to +$2.16B. That is not cosmetic. The quarterly run-rate through the last four reported quarters before the latest quarter was also credible: $3.89B, $4.18B, $4.48B, $4.71B of revenue, with net income stepping up from $214M to $481M. If I only looked at 2025, I’d say this is a textbook late-turnaround rerating candidate.

But the most recent quarter is exactly why I won’t underwrite the current $37.34 price. June 2026 revenue was $4.14B, down about 1% year over year from $4.18B, and net income was -$576M versus +$282M a year earlier. One ugly quarter does not invalidate the turnaround, but it does invalidate the idea that earnings quality is now stable enough for a 30.9x P/E and 13.0x EV/EBITDA in a generic-heavy pharma business. Even if some of that loss is driven by one-offs, the market is no longer valuing Teva as distressed; it is valuing it as largely de-risked. That is too generous for a company with a 2025 free cash flow of $1.15B against a $43.5B market cap, barely a 2.6% FCF yield. For a business that only grew revenue 4.3% recently, has a current ratio of 1.04, and still operates in a structurally price-competitive category, that cash yield is simply not compelling.

What stands out most is the mismatch between balance-sheet optics and valuation. On the supplied figures, Teva actually looks net cash, with $3.56B of cash against $1.82B of debt, and debt-to-equity of 0.23. If those numbers are directionally right, then yes, one of the historic reasons to discount Teva has meaningfully faded. But the equity is already priced for that improvement and then some. At 2.5x sales and 5.5x book, investors are paying multiples more consistent with a specialty pharma franchise than with a still-mixed business whose annual net margin was 8.2% in 2025 and whose quarterly profitability just snapped back into a deep loss. The rule-based “mature earner” label is more useful than the “deep-value” story here: this is no longer priced as a broken asset. It is priced as a cleaned-up incumbent with dependable earnings power, and the latest quarter argues that confidence is premature.

The strongest pushback is obvious: 2024 was likely the trough, 2025 proved earnings normalization, and the first quarter of 2026 still showed $369M of net income on $3.98B of revenue, so the June quarter may be litigation, restructuring, or other non-core noise rather than business deterioration. A bull would also note that operating cash flow of $1.65B and free cash flow of $1.15B remain healthy, gross margin above 51% is much stronger than old generic-pharma stereotypes, and if debt really is this low, the equity deserves a very different multiple than legacy Teva ever got. I take that seriously. My issue is that even granting the turnaround, you do not need heroic assumptions to get to “better business, mediocre stock.” At $37, the market has already captured the rerating from “survival” to “stability,” while the reported earnings path still has enough lumpiness that I’m unwilling to capitalize peak-ish 2025 profits as if they are the new floor.

What would change my mind is not a narrative event but proof in the next two or three reports that the June 2026 loss was truly non-recurring. If Teva can put up two consecutive quarters around $4.2B-$4.5B of revenue with net margins back near 8%-10%, sustain annualized free cash flow above $1.5B, and do so without renewed balance-sheet strain or litigation leakage, then the current multiple becomes less offensive and I could justify a valuation in the low-to-mid $30s as fair rather than rich. Conversely, if revenue stalls around $4.0B-$4.1B quarterly and earnings remain erratic, the stock should not hold a premium multiple; in that case, a retreat toward the mid-$20s would look more appropriate.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-22 15:19:21
Verdict Overvalued at $37.34; repaired balance sheet and $1.15B FCF support mid-teens to low-20s, not 31x earnings

The numbers tell a repair story that has already been celebrated, not one still being discovered. Teva printed $17.26B of revenue and $1.41B of net income in 2025 after three years of losses, free cash flow of $1.15B, and a balance sheet that flipped to net cash ($3.56B cash against $1.82B debt). Gross margin reached 51.8% and operating margin 12.5%, with ROIC at an eye-catching 40%. That is real operational progress from the 2022–2024 trough. What the price of $37.34 (roughly $43.5B equity value) is asking you to believe, however, is that this cleaned-up mid-single-digit grower deserves a 31x earnings multiple and nearly 38x trailing FCF. Revenue CAGR is only 4.4% and recent quarterly growth is decelerating; the Q2 2026 print of $4.14B revenue and a $576M loss (–13.9% margin) immediately reintroduces earnings volatility that the 2025 clean-up year had papered over. Paying growth-stock multiples for a specialty-and-generics franchise still dominated by price-pressured volume is the core mismatch.

The prior models’ $10.30 fair-value anchor is directionally correct in calling the stock expensive, but too punitive on the repaired capital structure. Net cash and $1.15B of FCF support something closer to the mid-teens to low-20s on a normalized basis—still a large gap below $37. EV/EBITDA of 13x and EV/sales of 2.4x look full once you strip the narrative premium; generic peers historically clear 8–12x earnings, not 31x. The “fallen angel” story is doing the heavy lifting: investors are capitalizing the end of the debt spiral and assuming specialty mix (CNS, migraine) plus litigation quiet will compound margins from here. Q2’s swing back to a half-billion-dollar loss is the first hard data point that the earnings base is not yet a smooth annuity.

The strongest counter-argument is the quality of the turnaround itself. Debt-to-equity of 0.23, a current ratio above 1, FCF CAGR of 16.8%, and ROE of 18% are not the statistics of a still-distressed name; a skeptic of the overvalued call would say the market is simply re-rating a fortress balance sheet and that 2025’s $2.16B of operating profit is the new run-rate once one-offs are ignored. They would also note that the valuation models appear to embed residual “debt burden” language that the 2025 balance sheet has already retired, and that any sustained specialty ramp could justify a higher multiple on a cleaner earnings stream. I weigh that evidence as already in the price: at 31x you need the specialty story to deliver and the charge-heavy quarters to vanish, not merely hope they might.

What flips the verdict is concrete evidence that the earnings power is both higher and smoother than 2025–early 2026 imply—specifically two consecutive quarters of double-digit net margins without large negative one-timers, plus visible sequential growth in the higher-margin specialty portfolio that lifts company-level revenue growth sustainably above mid-single digits. A clear resolution or quantification of remaining litigation tail that removes the binary overhang would also support a higher multiple. Conversely, another loss quarter or margin compression back toward the 2024 pattern would confirm the $37 handle is pure sentiment and accelerate mean reversion toward the low-20s or below.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-22 15:29:15
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass at $37 — revisit near $22-24 7/10
TEVA's turnaround is real but fully priced at $37 — quality has improved, price has more than kept up, so this is a wait-for-a-dip, not a buy.
The cruxWhether the 2025 margin inflection compounds cleanly through 2026 or gets interrupted by another legal/impairment charge — the price already assumes the clean path.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TEVA's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-2
Mixed
edge √Σ 96 · risk √Σ 97 · conf 6/10

Teva is a mature, self-funding drug manufacturer that has clearly bent the operating curve in 2025: revenue grew to $17.26B (from $15.88B in 2021), gross margin expanded to 51.8% (from 47.8%), operating margin swung to +12.5% from -1.8% in 2024, and net income printed +$1.41B after three consecutive GAAP loss years (2022 -$2.35B, 2023 -$559M, 2024 -$1.64B). FCF has been positive every year of the window ($236M to $1.15B) and the company sits on $3.56B liquid cash with $1.74B net cash, so survival is not in question despite the Altman Z of 0.93. The dilution profile is disciplined for a company of this size: diluted shares crept from 1.11B to 1.16B (about 1.2% CAGR), SBC is <1% of revenue, and there is no buyback offset - per-share value is being lightly eroded but not destroyed. Insider tape is neutral-to-mildly-negative: option-exercise-and-sell behavior from Hughes and Jover, no open-market buys. The core concerns are the sheer volume of cumulative GAAP losses over 2022-2024 (roughly -$4.5B combined) reflecting impairments/legal charges endemic to this franchise, and a leveraged balance sheet where liquid cash is only 8.2% of market cap and Altman Z sits in distress territory - typical for a debt-heavy specialty pharma but still a real constraint. OCF/NI of -0.16x looks alarming on the module but reflects the prior-year loss base rather than a cash-quality problem, since FCF is solidly positive.

Strengths 4
m60
Margin inflection in 2025
Gross margin 47.8% to 51.8% and operating margin -1.8% to +12.5% year-over-year, with revenue up to $17.26B - a genuine operational step-up, not just a one-off.
m55
Consistent free cash flow
FCF positive every year 2021-2025, ranging $236M to $1.15B; company self-funds and does not depend on capital markets.
m40
Disciplined share count
Diluted shares 1.11B to 1.16B over 5 years (1.2% CAGR), SBC only 0.9% of revenue - dilution is not eroding per-share economics materially.
m30
Adequate liquidity
$3.56B liquid cash and $1.74B net cash give real operating cushion even against the leveraged capital structure.
Concerns 4
m65
Distress-zone Altman Z of 0.93
Balance sheet leverage keeps the classic bankruptcy model in distress territory; while the model overweights asset-heavy firms, the underlying debt load is real.
m60
Three straight years of GAAP losses
2022 -$2.35B, 2023 -$559M, 2024 -$1.64B - roughly $4.5B of cumulative losses driven by impairments and legal charges before the 2025 recovery. Track record is not clean.
m35
Legal/settlement overhang implied by history
Repeated large negative items in operating results (2022 opM -14.1%, 2024 -1.8%) point to recurring exceptional charges - typical for Teva's opioid/price-fixing history and a durability concern.
m20
Insider exercise-and-sell, no buys
Hughes and Jover exercised options and immediately sold ($892K and $447K); zero open-market purchases in the tape. Mildly negative signal but routine in scale.
This is a classic leveraged generics turnaround that may finally be working. The 2025 numbers are the best in five years and the cash generation is real, but I cannot look past three straight loss years, a distress-zone Z-score, and a franchise that has repeatedly absorbed large legal and impairment charges. The dilution discipline is a genuine positive - management is not papering over problems with equity. Call it a middling business in a credible recovery: not fragile, not shaky, but nowhere near solid until the balance sheet de-risks and margins hold for another year or two.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenant headroom - the Altman Z distress reading hinges on this
  • Status and reserve levels for outstanding opioid and price-fixing litigation
  • Sustainability of 2025 margin uplift - is it Austedo/Ajovy/biosimilar mix or one-off items?
  • Segment split between North America generics, innovative branded, and biosimilars
  • Whether 2022-2024 losses were dominated by non-cash impairments vs cash legal payouts
  • Any pending refinancing needs given only 8.2% cash-to-market-cap coverage
Valuation / Mispricing
-60
Rich
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 6/10
Price $37.34 vs deserved ~$18-22 quality-adjusted (composite FV $10.69) - roughly 70-100% above deserved value, no margin of safety. attractive below $22.00

The composite fair value comes in at $10.69 (DCF $11.70, EPV floor $8.67) against a $37.34 price - a headline downside of about 72%. I do not take that gap at face value: EPV/DCF on a leveraged generics turnaround with three prior loss years will under-credit the visible 2025 margin recovery and the specialty pipeline (Austedo, Ajovy, Uzedy). But even flexing deserved value materially higher - say $18-22 to give credit for the cash-flow inflection and deleveraging - the price still sits well above it. The market is clearly paying for a re-rating that is already underway, not a discount to it. What is priced in at $37: sustained specialty growth, continued debt paydown without further legal charges, and multi-year margin expansion. That is the bull case fully embedded, not a coiled spring. With a distress-zone Altman Z, opioid tail risk, and generic pricing pressure still real, the risk-reward on valuation is asymmetric to the downside. This is a fallen-angel that has already been recognized - the easy mispricing was $8, not $37.

Cheap signals 2
m25
EPV likely understates franchise
EPV floor of $8.67 anchors on depressed historical earnings; the 2025 cash generation run-rate suggests deserved value is meaningfully higher than the models show, though still well below $37.
m20
Deleveraging optionality
Continued debt paydown mechanically transfers value to equity; if execution holds, deserved value drifts up over time - but this is a slow-burn, not a mispricing today.
Rich / priced-in 3
m72
Composite FV far below price
Signal-adjusted FV $10.30 vs price $37.34 implies -72% downside. Even discounting the models heavily for turnaround credit, the gap is too wide to close with reasonable assumptions.
m55
Turnaround already priced in
The stock has already re-rated on the specialty growth and margin recovery story; buyers today are paying for continued execution, not a discount to it.
m45
Leverage and tail risk not compensated
Distress-zone Z-score and unresolved opioid liabilities argue for a discount to deserved value, not a premium - yet the price implies a premium multiple.
I cannot make $37 work on valuation. The models say $10, and even after crediting the real margin inflection and pipeline I get to maybe $20 - the market is already paying for the turnaround to complete cleanly. This is a case where quality has improved and the price has more than kept up. I would want it back near $22 before the risk-reward tilts my way; at $37 it is a hold-if-you-own-it, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Austedo and Ajovy run-rate growth and 2026 guidance
  • Free cash flow conversion excluding legal settlements
  • Remaining opioid and other litigation reserves vs cash outflow schedule
  • Net debt trajectory and refinancing terms
  • Generic pricing commentary in latest transcript
General Sentiment
+30
Tailwind
tail √Σ 78 · head √Σ 47 · conf 6/10

The macro backdrop is mildly supportive - a risk-on tape with VIX at 15 and the S&P near highs - and with a beta of 0.88 TEVA isn't especially levered to it either way. What matters more is that the fallen-angel narrative, normally fragile and dominated by debt and opioid tail risk, just got two concrete positive prints in 72 hours: FDA priority review for ecopipam in pediatric Tourette (a genuine specialty-pipeline validation, exactly what the bull story needs) and an Aurinia settlement pushing out a generic launch to 2036 (removes a small overhang, keeps the specialty story clean). Neither is transformative, but for a low-cult, moderate-intensity story stock, positive specialty headlines are the swing factor. Momentum is already tagged strong_positive with a multi-year rerating, so the tape is inclined to reward good news rather than fade it. The counterweight is real but quiet: the story is fragile and durability is low, opioid litigation can flare at any time, and the broader generics narrative (commodity pricing, Alvotech-style biosimilar competition in adjacent news) remains a slow headwind. Net, the current press is a modest tailwind - specialty-drug validation is landing on a friendly tape, with no acute negative catalyst in view.

Tailwinds 4
m55
Ecopipam FDA priority review
Priority tag in pediatric Tourette directly feeds the specialty-pipeline leg of the bull story, which is what this fallen-angel narrative needs to keep re-rating. Meaningful for a fragile story that trades on belief.
m35
Aurinia settlement removes a small overhang
Voclosporin generic delayed to 2036 - not a needle-mover on cash flows, but it's a clean headline and reinforces that Teva is monetizing IP rather than fighting messy legal battles.
m30
Risk-on tape, low beta lets it participate
Mildly supportive regime with VIX 15 and S&P near highs. Beta 0.88 means the tape isn't a strong driver either way, but calm markets let idiosyncratic good news get paid.
m30
Momentum already positive, tape rewards good news
Strong_positive momentum tag and multi-year rerating suggest positioning is constructive; incremental specialty wins land on a bid rather than into skepticism.
Headwinds 2
m40
Fragile narrative, opioid tail risk latent
Durability is explicitly flagged low and cult is low - the story can crack on any opioid litigation headline or generic pricing print. Not active pressure today, but a ceiling on how much sentiment can extend.
m25
Generic/biosimilar sector chatter
Alvotech manufacturing slowdown and ongoing commodity-pricing framing in industry news keep the bear thesis alive in the background, capping multiple expansion for the generics franchise.
Net tailwind, but a soft one. The tape is calm and the last 72 hours delivered exactly the kind of specialty-pipeline headline this fragile narrative needs - ecopipam priority review is a real story point, not a press release filler. On a low-beta name with already-positive momentum, that lands as a bid. I wouldn't confuse this with a durable re-rating driver though: the narrative is low-cult and fragile, opioid risk is unhedged, and the generics backdrop keeps a lid on enthusiasm. Sentiment is leaning up, not ripping up.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Any opioid settlement or litigation headline that could flare the tail risk
  • Ecopipam PDUFA date and any label/scope signals from FDA
  • Sell-side target revisions or upgrades following the ecopipam priority review
  • Generic pricing commentary from peers (Viatris, Sandoz) that could reset the sector narrative
  • Debt paydown milestones - the core of the fallen-angel-to-recovery story
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-6
Growing
edge √Σ 95 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 6/10

The generics world is a volume business losing price: healthcare systems want the cost containment, but buying consortia and channel concentration keep extracting the margin, which is why industry operating and net margins have compressed by 20-30pp in three years. The durable winners are the ones who bolt branded, patent-protected CNS/biologic revenue onto a generics cash engine — which is precisely Teva's chosen shape. Policy (US pricing reform, potential pharma tariffs, onshoring pressure) raises the cost of the generics leg while doing little to the specialty leg, reinforcing that mix shift. So the world supports Teva's direction of travel but not its speed: the addressable growth is mid-single-digit revenue with faster earnings via deleveraging, not a step-change. Nothing in the macro or category data supplies a mechanism for the ~41% growth embedded in the price.

Growth drivers 4
m63
Specialty branded ramp is the growth engine
CNS/movement-disorder franchise (Austedo family, Uzedy long-acting antipsychotic) plus Ajovy is compounding at double-digit rates off a base large enough to move total revenue. This is the mechanism behind company revenue +4.3% YoY while the category prints -2.9%: it is product-specific, contracted, and not price-dependent in the way generics are.
m54
Measured share gain vs a declining category
Landscape data: industry revenue -4.1% CAGR, category median recent growth -2.75%, Teva +4.3% → ~+7.2pp gap. Sustained positive-year revenue record (all years positive, avg 4.36%, very low volatility 0.0004) says this is portfolio/mix-driven, not a one-quarter artifact.
m30
Pipeline optionality with a validated partner
Anti-TL1A (duvakitug) partnered with a large-cap on IBD, olanzapine LAI, and a biosimilar queue give post-2027 revenue lines that do not depend on generic pricing. Partnered economics de-risk spend but also cap upside — relevant to years 2-3 rather than the next two prints.
m35
Deleveraging converts flat revenue into better bottom-line slope
Multi-year FCF CAGR of +16.8% far outruns revenue CAGR of +4.4%, evidence that cash conversion and interest burden are improving. That mechanically lifts EPS growth above revenue growth even if the top line stays mid-single-digit.
Growth risks 5
m67
Operating earnings collapse in the newest matched quarters
Matched-quarter YoY: revenue +0.7% but operating income -56.8% and net income -141.7%. Whether legal/impairment charges or genuine mix and pricing pressure, it shows earnings power is not tracking the top line and the quarterly trend is explicitly 'decelerating'.
m57
Structural generic price erosion and industry margin compression
Industry operating margins -26.6pp and net margins -29.1pp over three years. Teva can gain share and still see the value of that share fall. Base generics is the majority of revenue, so mid-single-digit specialty growth is partly a treadmill against base decay.
m38
Opioid/legal settlement cash and tail risk
Multi-year settlement payments are a fixed claim on the same FCF that funds deleveraging and specialty launch spend, and residual litigation can reappear as lumpy charges — exactly the pattern visible in the latest EPS print (0.02 vs 0.11 est).
m27
Payer/policy and tariff exposure on a low-margin book
Macro headwinds, US drug-pricing policy and potential pharma tariffs bite hardest on high-volume, thin-margin generics manufactured across global sites. Little pricing power to absorb it.
m18
Ajovy competitive erosion
CGRP class is crowded with orals and rival injectables; the migraine line is the weakest leg of the specialty story and could stall while Austedo carries the load alone.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -21.8% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, TEVA was $37.34. We expect it to be $29.20 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $22.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.

Price when predicted$37.34
Our estimate for Feb 2027$29.20-21.8%
Great value below$22.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06