Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$188.99
6-month call
Bear -12.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$166.00
Great value below
$155.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.2% to $166.00
Predicted High
$187.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$166.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:37 am
Bear
TM trends lower to
$166.00
(-12.2% from $188.99)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisToyota trades far above valuation anchors but carries a durable safe-haven narrative, low beta, and neutral regime. Near-term drift is modestly negative on soft momentum (-16.8% trailing 6m), gradually pulling toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity asserts, though $43 fair value is not reachable in 6 months.
Invalidated ifA break above $200 on renewed buying, or conversely a collapse below $155 signaling capitulation to fair-value gravity
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $188.99 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $188.99 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $178.89–$199.09 typical range · internal point $187.50 | — | ±5.3% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, neutral regime, no near catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $191.11 on Aug 14, 2026 = +1.1% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.3%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $174.35–$203.63 typical range · internal point $185.00 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Soft momentum continues, mild sentiment crosswind |
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $181.00 | — | -4.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting, no earnings support |
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $177.00 | — | -6.3% | 5/10 | Continued fade toward attractive-buy zone near 155 |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $173.00 | — | -8.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, valuation overhang persists |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $169.00 | — | -10.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline path |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $166.00 | — | -12.2% | 4/10 | Approaches baseline endpoint as value pressure compounds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $165.09 (-12.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $188.99 |
| Composite fair value | $43.48 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $44.61 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $68.52 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $155.00 |
| Value net score | -31 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.3% 3m 26.8% 6m 28.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.04 3m 0.71 5m 0.95 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -16.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TM-20260803-000636-172d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TM-20260803-002617-e8c5 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TM-20260803-002617-e8c5 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TM-20260803-002617-e8c5 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TM-20260803-002617-e8c5 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TM-20260803-000636-172d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TM-20260803-000636-172d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $188.99 | $166.00 | -12.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.