Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$574.30
6-month call
Bear -6.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$535.00
Great value below
$430.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.8% to $535.00
Predicted High
$585.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$535.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:36 am
Bear
TMO trends lower to
$535.00
(-6.8% from $574.30)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTMO's platform-monopoly narrative and post-earnings analyst upgrades create near-term upward drift despite rich valuation. With no earnings catalyst in window and low beta, momentum likely persists for weeks before value gravity slowly reasserts, producing a mild ride-then-fade toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA break below $520 on rising volume, or a hawkish macro shift pushing regime risk-off, would invalidate the near-term drift-up.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $574.30 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $574.30 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $535.49–$613.11 typical range · internal point $580.50 | — | ±6.8% | 6/10 | Post-earnings momentum and analyst upgrades extend near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $588.29 on Aug 14, 2026 = +2.4% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.8%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $518.06–$630.54 typical range · internal point $585.00 | — | ±9.8% | 5/10 | Narrative strength continues, low beta dampens moves |
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $578.00 | — | +0.6% | 4/10 | Momentum plateaus as valuation stretch draws scrutiny |
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $565.00 | — | -1.6% | 4/10 | Mild fade begins as sentiment normalizes |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $555.00 | — | -3.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward anchored-PE zone |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $545.00 | — | -5.1% | 3/10 | Rate-heavy backdrop weighs on premium multiples |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $535.00 | — | -6.8% | 3/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $530.81 (-7.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $574.30 |
| Composite fair value | $330.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $319.94 |
| DCF fair value | $276.96 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $555.42 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $430.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +43 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.6% 3m 33.9% 6m 34.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.56 3m 0.10 5m 0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TMO-20260803-000636-8625 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TMO-20260803-002617-9bfe |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TMO-20260803-002617-9bfe |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TMO-20260803-002617-9bfe |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TMO-20260803-002617-9bfe |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TMO-20260803-000636-8625 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TMO-20260803-000636-8625 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $574.30 | $535.00 | -6.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $513.03 | $471.39 | -8.1% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.