Made on
Sep 1, 2026
Price at call
$366.73
6-month call
Bear -12.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$322.00
Great value below
$200.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.2% to $322.00
Predicted High
$374.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$322.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 1, 2026 1:04 pm
Bear
TPL trends lower to
$322.00
(-12.2% from $366.73)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTPL is deeply overvalued versus every anchor (fair value ~$100, anchored PE ~$122), but the platform-royalty narrative and low-beta character keep it sticky. Risk-on tape and no earnings catalyst mean drift, not collapse: mild bounce near-term as the 6m -29.5% drawdown consolidates, then gradual value gravity reasserts toward the deterministic $319 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $410 on Permian royalty upside or water-services reacceleration, or conversely a flush below $300 on oil-price shock, would invalidate this measured drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $366.73 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 1, 2026 | — | $366.73 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 15, 2026 | $332.09–$401.37 typical range · internal point $371.50 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and oversold bounce lift low-beta name |
| What actually happened: closed $365.27 on Sep 14, 2026 = -0.4% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $316.53–$416.93 typical range · internal point $374.00 | — | ±13.7% | 5/10 | No catalyst, sentiment mildly supportive, drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $325.83 on Sep 30, 2026 = -11.2% vs the call (predicted +2.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $362.00 | — | -1.3% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins as narrative fatigue sets in |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $350.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning trims stretched multiples |
| 4 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $340.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | January reset, quality premium erodes toward anchors |
| 5 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $328.00 | — | -10.6% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings drift as fair-value gap dominates |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $322.00 | — | -12.2% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $319.08 (-13.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $366.73 |
| Composite fair value | $100.33 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $106.95 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $121.87 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $200.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +86 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.2% 3m 47.4% 6m 50.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.33 3m 0.18 5m -0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -29.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | TPL-20260901-020002-456a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-TPL-20260901-022407-2236 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-TPL-20260901-022407-2236 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-TPL-20260901-022407-2236 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-TPL-20260901-022407-2236 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | TPL-20260901-020002-456a |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | TPL-20260901-020002-456a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $366.73 | $322.00 | -12.2% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.