Made on
Sep 3, 2026
Price at call
$110.03
6-month call
Bull +5.9%
Target by Mar 2027
$116.50
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.9% to $116.50
Predicted High
$116.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$109.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 3, 2026 1:10 pm
Bull
TROW trends higher to
$116.50
(+5.9% from $110.03)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisTROW trades below composite fair value ($129.68) with a neutral tape and low beta, supporting a gradual mean-reversion drift higher. Sentiment headwinds from passive-management concerns cap upside, while quality metrics and defensive tailwinds provide a floor. Expect a slow grind toward $115-118 with a soft consolidation mid-window.
Invalidated ifA break below $100 on rising volume, or regime shift to risk-off, or a large AUM outflow disclosure would falsify.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $110.03 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 3, 2026 | — | $110.03 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 17, 2026 | $104.18–$115.88 typical range · internal point $110.50 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, low vol, drift near current level |
| What actually happened: closed $102.40 on Sep 16, 2026 = -6.9% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 3, 2026 | $101.56–$118.50 typical range · internal point $109.00 | — | ±7.7% | 5/10 | Mild pullback on passive-flow narrative pressure |
| 2 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $111.50 | — | +1.3% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation, defensive bid returns |
| 3 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $113.50 | — | +3.2% | 5/10 | Post-print stability, value gravity toward fair value |
| 4 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $114.00 | — | +3.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, dividend appeal supports |
| 5 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $115.50 | — | +5.0% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $116.50 | — | +5.9% | 4/10 | Continued grind higher, sentiment drag limits pace |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $108.49 (-1.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $110.03 |
| Composite fair value | $129.68 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $126.01 |
| DCF fair value | $61.65 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $318.96 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -1 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +28 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 13.4% 3m 26.7% 6m 23.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.79 3m 0.61 5m 0.73 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | TROW-20260903-050002-66ca |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TROW-20260903-053916-2c92 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TROW-20260903-053916-2c92 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TROW-20260903-053916-2c92 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TROW-20260903-053916-2c92 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | TROW-20260903-050002-66ca |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | TROW-20260903-050002-66ca |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $110.03 | $116.50 | +5.9% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.