Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$298.32
6-month call
Bear -16.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$250.00
Great value below
$160.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-16.2% to $250.00
Predicted High
$285.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$235.00
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-21.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:12 am
Bear
TSLA trends lower to
$250.00
(-16.2% from $298.32)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisTSLA is a high-beta narrative name breaking down in a stress regime with deeply negative sentiment and quality/value both bearish, so near-term drift is lower with sharp counter-trend bounces. Over 6 months, absent a catalyst and with no earnings anchor immediately visible, the path grinds down toward the low-$200s before stabilizing as sentiment washes out and dip-buyers return.
Invalidated ifA robotaxi/Optimus milestone or macro risk-on flip that pushes TSLA back above $340 with volume invalidates the downward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $298.32 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $298.32 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $264.39–$332.25 typical range · internal point $285.00 | — | ±11.4% | 6/10 | Stress regime and momentum extend recent breakdown |
| What actually happened: closed $327.51 on Aug 12, 2026 = +9.8% vs the call (predicted -4.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $249.16–$347.48 typical range · internal point $272.00 | — | ±16.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment washout continues, high beta amplifies tape |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $258.00 | — | -13.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning defensive into event |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $248.00 | — | -16.9% | 4/10 | Post-earnings reaction likely mixed on soft deliveries |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $240.00 | — | -19.5% | 4/10 | Value zone approaches, dip-buyers begin stabilizing tape |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $235.00 | — | -21.2% | 3/10 | Year-end tax-loss selling offsets any narrative bounce |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $250.00 | — | -16.2% | 3/10 | January reset, oversold bounce as regime normalizes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 5 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $298.32 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 9 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -17 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 68.2% 3m 57.1% 6m 48.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.49 3m 2.95 5m 2.29 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -30.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | TSLA-20260730-001020-3f11 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSLA-20260730-005820-0bc0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSLA-20260730-005820-0bc0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSLA-20260730-005820-0bc0 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSLA-20260730-005820-0bc0 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | TSLA-20260730-001020-3f11 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | TSLA-20260730-001020-3f11 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $298.32 | $250.00 | -16.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.