TTWO
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Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
Communication Services · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$237.04
6-month call
Bear -5.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$225.00
Great value below
$190.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.1% to $225.00
Predicted High
$243.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$225.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 11:45 pm
Bear
TTWO trends lower to
$225.00
(-5.1% from $237.04)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTTWO rides GTA 6 narrative momentum and risk-on regime near-term, with sentiment and platform-monopoly story dominating. Value gravity is negative (fair value well below spot) but has weak pull absent a catalyst; expect gradual mean reversion as launch anticipation matures and profit-taking sets in over the winter.
Invalidated ifGTA 6 delay announcement, break below $210 support, or regime flip to risk-off would invalidate the near-term strength
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $237.04 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $237.04 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $220.63–$253.45 typical range · internal point $240.50 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry price higher |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $213.27–$260.81 typical range · internal point $243.00 | — | ±10.0% | 5/10 | GTA 6 narrative peaks into fall catalysts |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $241.00 | — | +1.7% | 4/10 | Consolidation as euphoria meets valuation concerns |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $236.00 | — | -0.4% | 4/10 | Earnings print risk and profit-taking begin |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $232.00 | — | -2.1% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation away from expensive narrative names |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $228.00 | — | -3.8% | 3/10 | Value gravity slowly asserts as launch date scrutinized |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $225.00 | — | -5.1% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward attractive-below threshold |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $237.04 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -28 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.4% 3m 34.7% 6m 32.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.18 3m 0.38 5m 0.48 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 23.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | 1d behind | TTWO-20260818-002206-2adb |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTWO-20260819-224723-70f7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTWO-20260819-224723-70f7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTWO-20260819-224723-70f7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTWO-20260819-224723-70f7 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | TTWO-20260819-122607-8190 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | TTWO-20260819-122607-8190 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $237.04 | $225.00 | -5.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $231.65 | $225.00 | -2.9% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.