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FRESH Analysis Report
Aug 19, 2026
3 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -48 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -28 · Value -68 · Sentiment 50 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

TTWO NASDAQ
Communication Services · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
New York, NY 10036, United States take2games.com Updated Aug 19, 4:10am
Price
$242.40
Market Cap
$45.3B
Employees
12,909
Beta
0.98
Avg Volume
2,013,107
CEO
Mr. Strauss H. Zelnick Esq., J.D.

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. is a video game and interactive entertainment company that develops, publishes, and markets digital content for consumers worldwide. The company focuses on console, PC, and mobile platforms, offering games across genres such as action-adventure, role-playing, strategy, sports, and family/casual entertainment. Its portfolio is delivered through both physical retail distribution and digital channels, including online platforms and cloud streaming services, giving it broad reach across major gaming ecosystems. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. operates through several prominent labels, notably Rockstar Games, 2K, Private Division, and Zynga, which collectively manage some of the industry’s most recognizable franchises. These labels enable the company to participate in key segments of the global gaming market, from premium console and PC titles to mobile and social games. Headquartered in New York City and founded in 1993, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. holds a significant position in the technology and entertainment landscape, serving players across the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 18, 2026 12:36am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$237.04
as of Aug 19, 6:06pm (4d ago)
Change · Aug 19
-5.36 (-2.21%)
Day Range
$236.24 – $246.50
52-Week Range
$187.63 – $265.94
50-Day MA
$239.41
200-Day MA
$228.84
Volume
2,424,155.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 4d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 187,000,000.00
Float 186,137,161.00
Free Float 99.5%
High free float — 99.5% of shares trade freely, ~0.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 8:20pm (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 9:42pm (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 19, 2026 5:18pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-149.63
Stock Price: $242.40
EPS (Diluted): -1.62
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
12.71
Stock Price: $242.40
Total Equity: $3.51B
Shares: 184,074,074
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
488.94
Market Cap: $45.32B
Total Debt: $2.52B
Cash: $1.55B
EBITDA: $94.30M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$46.1B
Market Cap: $45.32B
Total Debt: $2.52B
Cash: $1.55B
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
HEX
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
6.70
Stock Price: $242.40
Revenue: $6.66B
Shares: 184,074,074
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
CALC
6.93
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
57.2%
Gross Profit: $3.81B
Revenue: $6.66B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
-1.6%
Operating Income: -$104.20M
Revenue: $6.66B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
-4.5%
Net Income: -$298.20M
Revenue: $6.66B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
-8.5%
Net Income: -$298.20M
Total Equity: $3.51B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-3.5%
Operating Income: -$104.20M
Tax Rate: -50.8%
Equity: $3.51B
Total Debt: $2.52B
Cash: $1.55B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.24
Current Assets: $3.20B
Current Liabilities: $2.59B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.72
Short-Term Debt: $30.00M
Long-Term Debt: $2.49B
Total Debt: $2.52B
Total Equity: $3.51B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$36.16
Revenue: $6.66B
Shares: 184,074,074
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$19.07
Total Equity: $3.51B
Shares: 184,074,074
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.51
Operating CF: $624.30M
CapEx: -$162.80M
Shares: 184,074,074
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $242.40
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$298.20M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 19, 2026 5:18pm
Compares TTWO against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 9:42pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $3.5B $5.3B $5.3B $5.6B $6.7B
Cost of Revenue $1.5B $3.1B $3.1B $2.6B $2.8B
Gross Profit $2.0B $2.3B $2.2B $3.1B $3.8B
Operating Expenses $1.5B $3.5B $5.8B $7.5B $3.9B
Operating Income $473.6M -$1.2B -$3.6B -$4.4B -$104.2M
Net Income $418.0M -$1.1B -$3.7B -$4.5B -$298.2M
EBITDA $534.7M -$1.0B -$3.4B -$4.2B $94.3M
EPS $3.62 $-7.03 $-22.01 $-25.58 $-1.62
EPS (Diluted) $3.58 $-7.03 $-22.01 $-25.58 $-1.62
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:28pm (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $1.7B $827.4M $754.0M $1.5B $1.5B
Total Current Assets $3.9B $2.5B $2.3B $2.8B $3.2B
Total Assets $6.5B $15.9B $12.2B $9.2B $9.4B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $3.9B $2.4B $3.6B $2.6B
Long-Term Debt $0 $1.7B $3.1B $2.5B $2.5B
Total Liabilities $2.7B $6.8B $6.5B $7.0B $5.9B
Total Equity $3.8B $9.0B $5.7B $2.1B $3.5B
Retained Earnings $2.3B $1.2B -$2.6B -$7.1B -$7.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 9:42pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $258.0M $1.1M -$16.1M -$45.2M $624.3M
Capital Expenditure -$158.6M -$204.2M -$141.7M -$169.4M -$162.8M
Free Cash Flow $99.3M -$203.1M -$157.8M -$214.6M $461.5M
Acquisitions (net) -$3.3B -$7.3M $6.5M -$2.6M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 $2.1B $1.3B $598.9M $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$200.0M $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $135.1M -$960.8M -$132.6M $457.2M $78.9M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 9:42pm (3d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +52.6% 0.0% +5.3% +18.2%
Gross Profit Growth +16.0% -1.9% +36.6% +24.4%
Operating Income Growth -346.0% -208.2% -22.3% +97.6%
Net Income Growth -369.1% -232.9% -19.6% +93.3%
EBITDA Growth -295.0% -227.9% -21.7% +102.3%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:19pm (4d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2008-09-25 $0.00
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 17 computed · 7 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 23:38
-0.7 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 72% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 100%. Caveat: the company is pre-profit — scenario margins are a glide-path assumption, not a track record.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($237.04)
Bull — recovery +10% 17.3% $67.28 -72%
Base — stabilizes +7% 15.1% $51.70 -78%
Bear — keeps slipping +3% 12.8% $38.61 -84%
Stress — last quarter repeats +31% -4.8% $0.00 -100%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 31.1% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +2.0% · operating income -264.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +31.1% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TTWO — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-19 23:34

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Accelerating A mature, decelerating base (+2% revenue in the June-2026 quarter) sits directly in front of a discrete step-change release cycle — GTA 6 plus its recurrent-spend tail should lift bookings sharply, but nothing in the business supports the 60% growth the price embeds. conf 6/10
Inline with category Category growing · Category compounding ~18-21%; Take-Two's recent 18.2% sits ~3pts behind, and the newest quarter (+2%) is far behind — but that shortfall is release-cadence timing (a franchise gap ahead of the marquee launch), not evidence of players leaving its franchises.
Next 2 quarters
Accelerating
The two prints straddle the release: one soft pre-launch quarter with heavy marketing, then a launch quarter that should be the largest in company history on sell-in plus day-one digital. Net of the two, growth rate is inflecting upward, with GTA Online and NBA 2K recurrent spend cushioning the pre-launch gap.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Accelerating
A full launch year re-bases revenue and net bookings well above the ~7% mechanical baseline, with operating leverage returning once the marketing spike anniversaries. Guidance framing points to a record year; the only path to a lower call is a schedule slip.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Structural earnings power is genuinely higher post-launch: a bigger online cohort, direct-to-consumer distribution and Zynga ads compound off a larger base. But the growth RATE decays hard against the launch comp, and non-GTA lines are flat-to-modest with a ~3pt share gap versus the category.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
86 GTA 6 release cycle as a discrete step-change — The single largest revenue event available to any publisher: an installed base far bigger than at GTA 5's launch, day-one digital mix, and a premium-plus-edition ladder. This is not a trend extrapolation — it is a scheduled unit-sales event that re-bases revenue and operating leverage for at least two fiscal years, and it is the reason a +2% trailing quarter tells you almost nothing about the forward.
66 Recurrent consumer spending annuity behind the release — GTA Online / Shark Cards, NBA 2K MyTeam and Zynga in-app purchases give the company a high-margin recurring layer that historically persists years past a launch. A new GTA world resets that annuity at a much larger user base — the mechanism by which a one-time launch converts into multi-year earnings power rather than a single spike.
41 Category in genuine expansion — Sector in expansion phase, industry revenue CAGR ~18% over three years and category median recent growth ~18%. Take-Two is not fighting a shrinking market; demand for premium franchise content and live-service monetization is growing, which supports both units and pricing.
25 Mobile/direct-to-consumer margin path — Zynga's ad business plus first-party web stores reduce platform-fee leakage on both mobile and console content, so incremental bookings convert to operating income at a better rate than the last cycle — relevant to earnings direction even where revenue growth is release-timed.
Growth risks
65 Another slip in the marquee release — The entire year-1 acceleration is load-bearing on one date. A further delay pushes a full launch quarter out of the fiscal year and converts Accelerating into Stalling with elevated marketing spend already sunk. This has already happened once in this cycle, so it is a live, not theoretical, risk.
66 Price-implied 60% growth is unattainable — Reverse-DCF demands ~60% growth versus a house baseline of ~7% and an eleven-year revenue CAGR of ~11.6%. Even a record launch year does not compound at that rate; the structural rung must be judged below what is embedded.
49 Post-launch comparison cliff — Release-driven publishers face a brutal second-year comp. Unless the online/recurrent layer holds most of the launch cohort, years 2-3 revenue steps down from the peak even while structural earnings power is higher than pre-launch.
30 Modest share erosion and 2K commoditization — Recent YoY 18.2% vs industry 21.4% — a ~3pt gap. Sports annuals face price-sensitivity and rival competition, and Zynga's portfolio has not been a clear share gainer. Explains why non-GTA lines should be modeled as flat-to-modest, not compounding.
34 Operating income quality — Operating income down sharply (-264% YoY in the matched quarter) on impairment/reorg charges. Even excluding non-cash items, the cost base has grown ahead of revenue, so launch-year leverage may be less than gross bookings imply.
Global interactive-entertainment spend keeps expanding while engagement concentrates into a shrinking number of mega-franchises with live-service economics — a structure that favors owners of top-tier IP over mid-tier publishers. Consoles are late-cycle but the installed base is at a peak, and digital/direct distribution keeps improving unit economics. Macro is neutral (10y 4.71, no acute consumer stress signal); gaming spend is among the more resilient discretionary categories. The main world-level swing for this company is not demand, it is execution and timing on a single release.
Growth position composite +4
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
90Next 2 quarters · Accelerating
90Year 1 · Accelerating
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+4Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-19 22:46:23
Verdict Overvalued on fundamentals but supported by a real (not free) GTA VI option — fair value $190-210 ex-catalyst; wait for a pullback or launch-date confirmation before committing.

Looking at the raw trajectory first: quarterly revenue has actually been decelerating sequentially — $1.77B (Sep-25) → $1.70B → $1.68B → $1.53B (Jun-26) — and net losses persist across every one of the last eight quarters. The "18.2% recent YoY" masks a lumpy comp; the trailing four quarters sum to ~$6.68B, essentially flat with the FY26 print of $6.66B. Gross margin is genuinely healthy at 57%, and FY26 FCF of $461M is real — but at a $45B market cap that's a 1.0% FCF yield. The classification as "pre_profit_growth" (confidence 0.47) is wrong: this is a mature publisher digesting a bad acquisition ($3.55B goodwill impairment in FY25 net loss of $4.48B is the tell), not a scaling growth company. The pre-flight model correctly overrides this to "traditional" — I side with pre-flight.

The synthesis "high conviction required / binary GTA VI bet" is directionally right but I think slightly undersells the asymmetry against holders here. EV/revenue at 6.93 on a business with 11.6% revenue CAGR and negative operating margins is a rich multiple even by gaming standards — EA trades roughly 5x on positive operating margins. The bull math requires GTA VI to do what, exactly? If GTA VI ships in FY27 and generates $3B in year-one revenue at 40% incremental operating margin, that's ~$1.2B operating income against a current $45B EV — call it 27x incremental. The stock already prices that. For $242 to be undervalued, GTA VI needs to be a multi-year annuity comparable to GTA V's $8B lifetime — plausible but not a bargain thesis, it's a confirmation thesis. The thesis engine's -6 score (bear 88 vs bull 82) captures this: the risk/reward is roughly symmetric with a slight bear lean, which does NOT justify a $45B market cap trading at 98x FCF.

A careful contrarian would push back on the insider selling read — 20K shares across scattered small sales is noise at a company this size, not "unusual." The real contrarian argument cuts the other way: what if the market is actually UNDER-pricing GTA VI because everyone assumes it's priced in? Rockstar has shipped exactly one mainline GTA in the last 12 years and it's still generating recurring revenue a decade later. If GTA VI + GTA Online 2 becomes a $2B/year annuity for a decade, DCF supports $280-320. But that's a specific bet, not a margin-of-safety thesis. The narrative layer's "70% narrative / 30% fundamentals" split is honest — you're paying $45B for a story with a known catalyst and known integration disaster ($12.7B Zynga at ~$3.5B impaired equity value already recognized).

Data quality is thin where it matters: no quarterly FCF disclosure, no segment-level Zynga vs Rockstar vs 2K breakout in what's provided, and the "2026" date stamps suggest we're looking at fiscal year data that ends in calendar Q1/Q2 — GTA VI timing is the entire thesis and we don't have a firm launch date here. The market-forces model failing entirely ("Could not parse") is a real gap given this is a catalyst-driven name. Net: I partially agree with synthesis's "high conviction required" framing but lean more bearish than their neutral read. At $242, you're paying premium multiples for a company with two years of accelerating losses, decelerating recent quarterly revenue, 1% FCF yield, and a binary catalyst that the sellside has been front-running for three years. Fair value on realized fundamentals is closer to $180-200 (5.5x EV/sales, in line with EA); the $40-60 premium is the GTA VI option value, which is real but not free money. I'd rather own this at $200 into the launch than $242 on hope.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-19 22:46:40
Verdict Overvalued at $242 — fair value looks closer to $180 unless Take-Two can prove GTA-driven earnings power with $1B+ annual free cash flow or sustained double-digit operating margins.

At $242, Take-Two is not being valued on what it is earning; it is being valued on what one future launch might unlock. The raw numbers are clear: revenue has improved meaningfully, from $5.35B in FY24 to $5.63B in FY25 and $6.66B in FY26, and the quarterly run-rate has stepped up from roughly $1.35B-$1.36B in late 2024 to $1.68B-$1.77B in late 2025/early 2026 before easing to $1.53B in the latest quarter. Gross profit also rose to $3.81B in FY26, with gross margin at 57.2%, so the core content engine is not broken. But investors are paying 6.7x sales and about 12.7x book for a company that still posted a FY26 operating loss of $104M and net loss of $298M. Even after the worst acquisition/accounting noise faded, the business did not snap back to strong earnings; the last five quarters were all still loss-making, with net margins between -0.8% and -7.5% aside from the giant impairment quarter. That is the central issue: the market cap implies elite economics, while the current P&L still shows subscale profitability relative to valuation.

The part bulls will emphasize—correctly—is that cash generation is better than GAAP suggests. FY26 operating cash flow was $624M and free cash flow was $462M, which matters because this is not a distressed balance sheet story. Net debt is under $1B if you offset $2.52B debt with $1.55B cash, and the current ratio of 1.24 is fine. But even if I give full credit to the cash flow and treat FY26 as a transition year, the valuation is still aggressive. A $45.3B market cap against $461M of FCF is roughly a 98x equity FCF multiple. Against $6.66B of revenue, the business needs either a dramatic margin inflection or a major revenue step-function to justify today’s price. The obvious candidate is GTA VI. The problem is that this is not a hidden catalyst; it is the entire stock. When one title is doing this much valuation work, the margin for error on timing, reception, monetization cadence, or cost absorption is tiny.

What stands out in the quarterly data is that profitability is improving only gradually even as revenue has scaled. Net losses narrowed from -$365M and -$125M in the 2024 year-end quarters to low double-digit losses in the 2025/26 period, but that still leaves TTWO as a premium-rated company without premium earnings. If this were trading at 3x-4x sales, I would be more forgiving because the franchise portfolio is real and gross margins are healthy. At nearly 7x sales, I need evidence that EBITDA and net income are about to inflect hard, not merely that they might someday. Insider activity does not help the case: the recent tape is dominated by sales, not accumulation. I would not overread small awards and sales, but there is certainly no insider behavior here suggesting management sees obvious mispricing at $240-plus.

The strongest case against my skepticism is that Take-Two is one of the few game publishers with genuinely scarce IP, and scarce IP can make conventional multiples look stupid in hindsight. FY26 revenue growth of 18.2% is healthy for a company of this scale, gross margin recovered to 57%, quarterly losses are small relative to revenue, and cash flow stayed positive despite heavy development spending. If GTA VI lands anywhere near the high end of expectations, one year of bookings could reset every current ratio. A business doing $6.66B of annual revenue today could plausibly jump much higher, and if that comes with digital mix and recurrent spending, the eventual margin structure could look more like the FY22 model, when Take-Two earned $418M on just $3.5B of revenue. On that reading, today’s valuation is paying up in advance for a rare asset rather than overpaying for a broken income statement. I weigh that argument less heavily because investors already know all of it; the stock is not cheap enough to compensate for execution risk, and the burden of proof lies with future results, not franchise mythology.

What would change my mind is concrete evidence that the earnings model is finally matching the revenue base. I would turn more constructive if one of the next few quarters showed revenue above $2.0B with a clearly positive net margin, or if FY27/FY28 results demonstrated that the company can convert its current 57% gross margin into at least low-teens operating margin sustainably. I would also revisit valuation if free cash flow moved decisively above $1.0B annualized without a corresponding surge in capitalized development risk. Conversely, a delay or softer-than-expected launch cadence around the major pipeline would make the stock much harder to defend, because at $242 there is very little room for “good, not great.”

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-19 22:47:22
Verdict Overvalued at $242 — 6.7× sales and ~1% FCF yield already discount a flawless GTA VI super-cycle while Zynga and margins remain unfinished business

The numbers show a publisher that has finally stopped the bleeding from the Zynga deal but has not yet earned the multiple the market is assigning. FY2026 revenue hit $6.66B, up roughly 18% from the prior year’s $5.63B, with trailing quarters holding in a $1.53–1.77B band. Gross margin sits at a healthy 57%, and operating loss collapsed from –$4.39B to just –$104M; free cash flow turned solidly positive at $461M on $624M of operating cash flow. That is real progress. Yet GAAP remains red (–$298M net income, –4.5% net margin), ROIC and ROE are still negative, and the balance sheet carries $2.52B of debt against $1.55B cash. At $242 and a $45B enterprise, investors are paying 6.7× sales and an effectively infinite earnings multiple for a business whose current FCF yield is barely 1%. The entire premium is the capitalized option on GTA VI plus residual faith that Zynga’s mobile base will eventually stop being a drag.

What the quantitative labels call “pre-profit growth” is really a mature hit-driven publisher temporarily distorted by acquisition accounting. The 11.6% revenue CAGR and recent 18% y/y print are respectable, not explosive; quarterly revenue has actually been flat-to-down from the $1.77B peak. Insider activity is net selling across multiple June–July prints, and cash-flow quality is flagged poor—consistent with a company still digesting a $12.7B deal that produced multi-billion-dollar impairments. The market narrative is unanchored and intense: GTA VI is treated as a near-certainty $15–20B franchise event that will redefine margins. That story may prove correct, but it is already fully reflected in a price that leaves almost no room for delay, softer launch metrics, or continued Zynga underperformance.

The strongest contrary case is straightforward. GTA V generated more than $8B lifetime; a modern equivalent with tighter live-service hooks, higher attach rates, and cross-gen reach could easily justify several turns of multiple expansion and turn the current $461M FCF into multi-billion annual cash generation within two years of launch. NBA 2K already supplies recurring high-margin revenue, the catalog remains durable, and operating leverage is visibly kicking in as amortization rolls off. If those elements land, today’s 6.7× sales will look cheap in hindsight and the stock can re-rate toward $300+ without needing heroic assumptions. I weigh this less heavily because the same data already embed those outcomes: the valuation synthesis itself scores the bear mass higher, expectations-gap risk is rated 75, and every incremental quarter of merely adequate results without GTA VI news has left the shares range-bound. Paying 13× book and mid-single-digit sales for a still-unprofitable publisher is not a free option; it is a priced-in bull case.

I would flip to a clear undervalued stance on two concrete developments: GTA VI launch-quarter bookings that imply lifetime revenue comfortably above $10B with early high-margin online engagement, or two consecutive quarters of positive operating margin above 10% and FCF above $400M even before the title ships—evidence that the base business alone can support a mid-teens earnings multiple. Conversely, a multi-quarter delay or launch metrics that merely match (rather than exceed) GTA V would confirm the expectations gap and push the stock toward $180–200.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-19 23:38:05
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Rich — wait for a dip 7/10
Franchise-quality IP fully priced at $237 with GTA VI already capitalized at bull case — a great story, not a great buy here.
The cruxWhether GTA VI launches on time and monetizes at bull-case run-rate; everything below that outcome is uncompensated at this price.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TTWO's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-28
Mixed
edge √Σ 100 · risk √Σ 129 · conf 6/10

Take-Two runs premium IP (GTA, NBA 2K, Red Dead) with revenue climbing from $3.50B in FY2022 to $6.66B in FY2026 and gross margin recovering to 57.2%. FY2026 marks a real inflection: FCF swung from -$214.6M to +$461.5M and operating margin from -77.9% to roughly breakeven. However, the company has posted cumulative net losses of roughly $9.6B across FY2023-FY2026, and the Zynga-era goodwill impairments and integration costs show up as persistent operating red ink. Net cash is negative ($-528.7M) so the balance sheet is a constraint, not a buffer, though $1.99B of liquid cash and positive FCF remove any near-term survival question. The real quality issue is per-share value creation. Diluted shares went from 116.8M (FY2022) to 184.1M (FY2026) - a 12.1% CAGR, or roughly 58% dilution in four years, driven by the Zynga stock deal plus ongoing SBC at 4.6% of revenue. Buybacks recover only 13.6% of SBC, so shareholders are structurally diluted. Insider tape reinforces caution: 44 sales, zero open-market buys over 12 months, with Slatoff, Emerson and others liquidating meaningful blocks in June 2026 into the post-inflection print. Earnings-quality mechanicals look clean (Beneish -2.9, Altman Z 4.28, no accrual flags), and the FY2026 OCF-to-NI swing is a genuine improvement, not a manipulation signal. But 'high earnings quality' here mostly reflects that the losses were honestly reported. Durability of the IP is real; discipline around dilution and cost structure is not yet demonstrated over a full cycle.

Strengths 3
m70
FY2026 cash generation inflection
FCF turned to +$461.5M from -$214.6M prior year on 19% revenue growth to $6.66B and GM recovery to 57.2%, suggesting the GTA/live-services cycle is funding itself again.
m55
Franchise IP durability
Revenue grew every year through the operating-loss period ($3.50B to $6.66B), consistent with a portfolio (GTA, NBA 2K, RDR) whose demand does not depend on annual execution being flawless.
m45
Clean forensic mechanicals
Beneish M -2.9, Altman Z 4.28 in safe zone, accruals -18.7% of assets, no red flags in the manipulation screens - the ugly GAAP numbers appear honestly stated.
Concerns 5
m80
Severe per-share dilution
Diluted shares rose from 116.8M to 184.1M in four years (12.1% CAGR, ~58% cumulative). Buybacks offset only 13.6% of SBC, so per-share value has structurally lagged the enterprise.
m70
Four consecutive years of GAAP losses
Net losses of $-1.12B, $-3.74B, $-4.48B, $-298M FY23-26 - cumulatively ~$9.6B - driven largely by Zynga impairments but reflecting a capital-allocation misstep at scale.
m45
Net debt with no cushion
Net cash is $-528.7M against a $45B market cap; liquidity is fine but the balance sheet offers no downside pad if the next release cycle slips.
m45
Insider selling, zero buying
44 sells totaling $135M vs. 0 open-market buys in 12 months; Slatoff, Emerson liquidated sizable blocks in June 2026 into the inflection print. Some routine, but the one-sidedness is notable.
m35
Single-year inflection, not a trend
FY2026 is one datapoint after three brutal years; operating margin still -1.6%. Cannot yet call the profitability turn durable versus a GTA-cycle timing effect.
This is a franchise-quality asset wrapped around a mediocre capital-allocation record. The IP is real, FY2026 cash generation is real, and the forensics are clean - but a business that grew its share count 58% in four years while posting $9.6B of cumulative losses has not earned a 'Strong' label yet. The insider tape (44 sells, 0 buys) reads as people taking chips off after a good print, not as conviction. I grade this Mixed leaning constructive: if FY2027 confirms the FCF trajectory and SBC-net buybacks turn positive, it becomes Solid; if the GTA cycle over-delivered and dilution continues, it slides back toward Shaky.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • How much of FY2026 revenue and FCF is attributable to GTA VI pre-orders/deferred revenue vs. recurring live-services
  • Zynga goodwill remaining on balance sheet and impairment risk if mobile softens further
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants underlying the $-528.7M net cash position
  • Whether June 2026 insider sales were 10b5-1 pre-scheduled or discretionary
  • SBC dilution trajectory guidance and any authorized buyback capacity
  • Segment-level operating margin for Zynga/mobile vs. console/PC to see where losses concentrate
Valuation / Mispricing
-68
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 107 · conf 6/10
Price $237 vs deserved ~$190-210 on probability-weighted GTA VI plus realized cash flow - roughly 10-20% overpriced, no margin of safety. attractive below $190.00

The e2e synthesis frames the setup honestly: $45B is a bet that GTA VI justifies the Zynga debt load and redefines hit economics. That is not a value setup - that is a growth/catalyst setup where the deserved value depends almost entirely on one unreleased title. Against a business that has printed $9.6B of cumulative GAAP losses over four years and diluted shares 58%, the per-share deserved value based on realized economics is materially below $237; the gap is closed only by capitalizing an unshipped release at bull-case assumptions. That is the definition of priced-for-perfection. Quality-adjusting: the franchise IP is genuinely durable (raises deserved value), but capital allocation and dilution cut the other way, and NBA 2K/Zynga are maturing, not accelerating. A fair deserved value on realized cash generation plus a probability-weighted GTA VI contribution likely sits in the $180-210 range, not $237+. The market is paying full sticker for the bull case with the bear case (delay, monetization miss, franchise fatigue) essentially uncompensated. Insider tape (44 sells, 0 buys) corroborates that people close to the asset do not see a discount here.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Franchise IP genuinely raises deserved value
GTA, NBA 2K, Borderlands are durable, high-margin engines - this keeps the stock from being outright overvalued and supports a floor, but does not create a discount at $237.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
GTA VI fully capitalized at bull case
The $45B cap requires GTA VI to hit blockbuster launch AND sustain live-service monetization for years. A delay or a monetization miss - both realistic - is not priced in.
m55
Dilution erodes per-share deserved value
Share count up 58% in four years to fund Zynga; even if enterprise value is defensible, per-share fair value is dragged materially lower and the market cap ignores this drag.
m45
Four years of GAAP losses under the rebound story
$9.6B cumulative losses mean the 'deserved value' cannot lean on trailing earnings power; it leans on forward hits, which is speculative not defensive.
m40
Insider signal
44 insider sells and 0 buys around these levels is not the tape of a stock trading below intrinsic value.
I do not see a mispricing in my favor here. At $237 the market is paying for a clean GTA VI launch and a Zynga thesis that has not yet proven itself, and the per-share math is dragged by real dilution the bull case glosses over. The business is fine to good; the price is full to slightly rich. I would want it in the $180s before I called it interesting on valuation - closer to $200 I might nibble as a catalyst play, but that is not value investing, that is event trading.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY2026 guidance detail and how much GTA VI contribution is embedded
  • GTA VI release date confirmation and any monetization model disclosures (live service, microtransactions)
  • Zynga segment bookings trajectory and DAU trends
  • Net debt post-Zynga and cash flow available to delever
  • Any FY2026 one-offs inflating the rebound narrative
General Sentiment
+50
Tailwind
tail √Σ 101 · head √Σ 47 · conf 7/10

The tape is mildly risk-on (regime +38, VIX 14.9) and TTWO's near-market beta (0.98) means macro is a non-factor here - this is a narrative-driven name and the narrative is doing the work. The platform-monopoly archetype is intense, with GTA 6 preorders described as 'record' and the bull frame (durable franchise engines + Zynga mobile + AI dev leverage) still dominant in coverage. Momentum confirms it: +18% recent vs 11.6% long-term CAGR and +65pp over three years - the market is paying up for the catalyst and holding the bid. News flow last week leaned constructive ('13% undervalued', 'shift to modest profit guidance reframes the bull case'), meaning even the softer guidance is being re-narrated as de-risking rather than a story break. That said, the pressure is not euphoric - it is a steady, priced-in tailwind, not a mania. The bear counter (fatigue, everything priced at $237, Zynga stalling) is present and the Aug 7 print showed the tape can wobble on cautious guidance before recovering. Durability is only 'moderate' - once GTA 6 actually ships, the narrative fuel burns off and this could flip to headwind on any execution slip.

Tailwinds 4
m68
GTA 6 catalyst narrative
Record preorders and an imminent mega-release anchor a strong platform-monopoly story - a genuine, persistent bid under the stock that dwarfs macro noise for a name with this beta.
m55
Constructive analyst / news tone
Recent coverage frames TTWO as 'undervalued' post-print and reframes soft guidance as bull-case supportive - tone is diverging positive despite a wider net loss.
m45
Momentum confirmation
18% recent vs 11.6% long-term CAGR and +65pp/3y show the tape is actively rewarding the story - reflexive flows keep the pressure one-directional.
m25
Benign macro tape
Risk-on regime, low VIX 14.9, neutral macro. Beta near 1 means no amplification either way - macro is a mild net positive, not a driver.
Headwinds 2
m40
Priced-in catalyst risk
Bear frame that GTA 6 is fully in the $237 print is legitimate - narrative durability is only 'moderate,' so any launch stumble or delay would snap sentiment fast.
m25
Cautious guidance overhang
The Aug 7 print's conservative full-year outlook and wider Q1 net loss create a slow drip of doubt underneath the bull tape.
Net tailwind, and a real one - not euphoric but persistent. The platform-monopoly narrative with a dated GTA 6 catalyst is the dominant force on this tape, and analyst tone plus momentum are all leaning the same way. Macro is essentially neutral for a beta-1 name so it doesn't move the needle. The honest risk is asymmetric: the tailwind is priced, and once the catalyst prints the same narrative machine that lifted it can flip against it on any disappointment. For now, though, the pressure clearly pushes up.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • GTA 6 launch date confirmation or any hint of delay - the single biggest narrative pivot
  • Preorder / engagement metrics vs street whispers as launch nears
  • Zynga bookings trend - the secondary story leg that could crack first
  • Sector rotation out of gaming/comm-services if risk-on tape fades
  • Analyst target revisions post-Aug 7 print - are upgrades broadening or stalling
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+4
Accelerating
edge √Σ 119 · risk √Σ 114 · conf 6/10

Global interactive-entertainment spend keeps expanding while engagement concentrates into a shrinking number of mega-franchises with live-service economics — a structure that favors owners of top-tier IP over mid-tier publishers. Consoles are late-cycle but the installed base is at a peak, and digital/direct distribution keeps improving unit economics. Macro is neutral (10y 4.71, no acute consumer stress signal); gaming spend is among the more resilient discretionary categories. The main world-level swing for this company is not demand, it is execution and timing on a single release.

Growth drivers 4
m86
GTA 6 release cycle as a discrete step-change
The single largest revenue event available to any publisher: an installed base far bigger than at GTA 5's launch, day-one digital mix, and a premium-plus-edition ladder. This is not a trend extrapolation — it is a scheduled unit-sales event that re-bases revenue and operating leverage for at least two fiscal years, and it is the reason a +2% trailing quarter tells you almost nothing about the forward.
m66
Recurrent consumer spending annuity behind the release
GTA Online / Shark Cards, NBA 2K MyTeam and Zynga in-app purchases give the company a high-margin recurring layer that historically persists years past a launch. A new GTA world resets that annuity at a much larger user base — the mechanism by which a one-time launch converts into multi-year earnings power rather than a single spike.
m41
Category in genuine expansion
Sector in expansion phase, industry revenue CAGR ~18% over three years and category median recent growth ~18%. Take-Two is not fighting a shrinking market; demand for premium franchise content and live-service monetization is growing, which supports both units and pricing.
m25
Mobile/direct-to-consumer margin path
Zynga's ad business plus first-party web stores reduce platform-fee leakage on both mobile and console content, so incremental bookings convert to operating income at a better rate than the last cycle — relevant to earnings direction even where revenue growth is release-timed.
Growth risks 5
m65
Another slip in the marquee release
The entire year-1 acceleration is load-bearing on one date. A further delay pushes a full launch quarter out of the fiscal year and converts Accelerating into Stalling with elevated marketing spend already sunk. This has already happened once in this cycle, so it is a live, not theoretical, risk.
m66
Price-implied 60% growth is unattainable
Reverse-DCF demands ~60% growth versus a house baseline of ~7% and an eleven-year revenue CAGR of ~11.6%. Even a record launch year does not compound at that rate; the structural rung must be judged below what is embedded.
m49
Post-launch comparison cliff
Release-driven publishers face a brutal second-year comp. Unless the online/recurrent layer holds most of the launch cohort, years 2-3 revenue steps down from the peak even while structural earnings power is higher than pre-launch.
m30
Modest share erosion and 2K commoditization
Recent YoY 18.2% vs industry 21.4% — a ~3pt gap. Sports annuals face price-sensitivity and rival competition, and Zynga's portfolio has not been a clear share gainer. Explains why non-GTA lines should be modeled as flat-to-modest, not compounding.
m34
Operating income quality
Operating income down sharply (-264% YoY in the matched quarter) on impairment/reorg charges. Even excluding non-cash items, the cost base has grown ahead of revenue, so launch-year leverage may be less than gross bookings imply.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -5.1% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 19, 2026, TTWO was $237.04. We expect it to be $225.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $190.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 19, 2026.

Price when predicted$237.04
Our estimate for Feb 2027$225.00-5.1%
Great value below$190.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06