Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$275.74
6-month call
Bear -7.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$255.00
Great value below
$195.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.5% to $255.00
Predicted High
$274.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$255.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:37 am
Bear
TXN trends lower to
$255.00
(-7.5% from $275.74)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisTXN trades at a massive premium to fair value but the 'irreplaceable analog' narrative and strong 6-month momentum keep the tape sticky. Expect gradual drift lower as soft guidance and a neutral regime slowly erode multiple, though nothing near the deterministic $229 target absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above $290 on renewed cyclical upturn signals, or a break below $255 confirming faster multiple compression
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $275.74 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $275.74 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $248.65–$302.83 typical range · internal point $274.00 | — | ±9.8% | 6/10 | Sideways tape, no catalyst, neutral regime holds |
| What actually happened: closed $279.58 on Aug 14, 2026 = +1.4% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.8%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $236.48–$315.00 typical range · internal point $271.50 | — | ±14.2% | 5/10 | Mild drift as rate backdrop pressures high-PE names |
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $268.00 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, soft guide expectations building |
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $264.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | Earnings reaction likely muted-negative on capex overhang |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $262.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-related trimming of winners |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $258.00 | — | -6.4% | 3/10 | January reset, valuation gravity begins to matter |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $255.00 | — | -7.5% | 3/10 | Slow multiple compression toward long-term averages |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $229.23 (-16.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $275.74 |
| Composite fair value | $35.01 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $32.66 |
| DCF fair value | $25.14 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $195.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +41 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 37.2% 3m 49.3% 6m 48.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.23 3m 2.36 5m 1.81 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 25.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TXN-20260803-000636-7009 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXN-20260803-002617-d8b6 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXN-20260803-002617-d8b6 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXN-20260803-002617-d8b6 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXN-20260803-002617-d8b6 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TXN-20260803-000636-7009 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $275.74 | $255.00 | -7.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 25, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $303.11 | $261.83 | -13.6% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.