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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -22 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 41 · Value -73 · Sentiment -7 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $36.74 vs $275.74 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Texas Instruments Inc
TXN NASDAQTexas Instruments Inc. is a leading semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and founded in 1930. The company designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of analog and embedded processing chips to electronics designers and manufacturers worldwide, including in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Japan. It operates primarily through its Analog and Embedded Processing segments, with Analog generating the majority of revenue by processing real-world signals such as sound, power, and light. Texas Instruments holds a dominant position as the world's largest maker of analog chips and maintains leading market share in processors and microcontrollers. These components power a diverse array of applications in consumer electronics, industrial equipment, automotive systems, communications infrastructure, and enterprise solutions. Additionally, the company produces well-known calculators, though semiconductors form the core of its business. Texas Instruments serves as a critical supplier in the global technology supply chain, enabling innovation across multiple industries through reliable, high-performance integrated circuits.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.45
Total Equity: $16.27B
Shares: 913,000,000
Total Debt: $14.05B
Cash: $3.23B
EBITDA: $7.94B
Total Debt: $14.05B
Cash: $3.23B
Revenue: $17.68B
Revenue: $17.68B
Revenue: $17.68B
Total Equity: $16.27B
Tax Rate: 12.4%
Equity: $16.27B
Total Debt: $14.05B
Cash: $3.23B
Current Liabilities: $3.16B
Long-Term Debt: $13.55B
Total Debt: $14.05B
Total Equity: $16.27B
Shares: 913,000,000
Shares: 913,000,000
CapEx: -$4.55B
Shares: 913,000,000
Stock Price: $275.74
Net Income: $5.00B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 2:03am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.3B | $20.0B | $17.5B | $15.6B | $17.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.0B | $6.3B | $6.5B | $6.5B | $7.6B |
| Gross Profit | $12.4B | $13.8B | $11.0B | $9.1B | $10.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.7B | $3.6B | $4.1B |
| Operating Income | $9.0B | $10.1B | $7.3B | $5.5B | $6.0B |
| Net Income | $7.8B | $8.7B | $6.5B | $4.8B | $5.0B |
| EBITDA | $9.7B | $11.1B | $8.5B | $7.0B | $7.9B |
| EPS | $8.38 | $9.51 | $7.13 | $5.24 | $5.47 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.26 | $9.41 | $7.07 | $5.20 | $5.45 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:13am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $4.6B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $13.7B | $14.0B | $15.1B | $15.0B | $13.8B |
| Total Assets | $24.7B | $27.2B | $32.3B | $35.5B | $34.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.6B | $3.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $7.2B | $8.2B | $10.6B | $12.8B | $13.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $11.3B | $12.6B | $15.5B | $18.6B | $18.3B |
| Total Equity | $13.3B | $14.6B | $16.9B | $16.9B | $16.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $45.9B | $50.4B | $52.3B | $52.3B | $52.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 2:03am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $8.8B | $8.7B | $6.4B | $6.3B | $7.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.5B | -$2.8B | -$5.1B | -$4.8B | -$4.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.3B | $5.9B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $2.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $945.0M | $994.0M | $2.5B | $2.4B | $449.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$3.9B | -$4.3B | -$4.6B | -$4.8B | -$5.0B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$527.0M | -$3.6B | -$293.0M | -$929.0M | -$1.5B |
| Net Change in Cash | $1.5B | -$1.6B | -$86.0M | $236.0M | $25.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 2:03am (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +9.2% | -12.5% | -10.7% | +13.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +11.3% | -20.0% | -17.5% | +10.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +13.2% | -27.7% | -25.5% | +10.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +12.6% | -25.6% | -26.3% | +4.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | +13.9% | -23.1% | -18.0% | +13.9% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:13am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-30 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-31 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-30 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-31 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-31 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-31 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-30 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-30 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-28 | $1.24 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-05 | $1.24 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-30 | $1.24 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-28 | $1.24 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-29 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-06 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-28 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-29 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a genuine inflection story that the DCF-anchored synthesis is under-weighting. Sequential quarterly revenue: $4.07B → $4.45B → $4.74B → $4.42B → $4.83B → $5.46B, with net margin expanding from 29% to 36.2% over the same window. Q2 2026 annualized runs at ~$21.8B revenue and ~$7.9B net income — that's already brushing the 2022 peak ($20.03B rev / $8.75B NI) and would put forward P/E around 32x, not 50x. Recent revenue YoY of 13.1% and Q2 net income up 52% YoY ($1.98B vs $1.30B) is not "mature earner" behavior — it's cyclical recovery with operating leverage kicking in exactly as bulls predicted. FCF CAGR of 38.9% while capex remains at $4.55B (the fab buildout) is the tell: capex intensity is peaking, and as it rolls off, FCF should re-rate hard.
I disagree with the synthesis verdict of $33 fair value — that number is nonsensical and I'd throw it out. It implies TXN trades at ~4x current-run-rate earnings, which no analog semi peer has ever printed outside a solvency crisis. ADI trades at ~30x, MCHP at premium multiples, and TXN carries better ROIC (19.5%) and a stronger manufacturing footprint. The narrative layer's "744% premium to fundamentals" claim is a DCF calibration failure, not a signal. That said, the pre-flight and market-forces models are directionally right: the market IS pricing peak-earnings recovery plus a quality premium, and at 32x EV/EBITDA with a 100% payout ratio (dividend eating all normalized FCF), there is no margin of safety. Debt-to-equity of 0.86 with only $3.23B cash against $14.05B debt is a real constraint if the recovery stalls.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously isn't the bear DCF — it's this: TXN is doing exactly what a countercyclical capex bet is supposed to do (invest through the trough, harvest on the upswing), and Q2 2026 margins of 36.2% suggest fab utilization is climbing fast. If they sustain $5.5B+ quarterly revenue and 35%+ net margins, run-rate NI approaches $8B, and at even a 28x multiple (below current), that's $224B market cap — roughly 10% below spot. Bulls need margins to keep climbing to 38-40% AND revenue to punch through $6B/quarter to justify $275. Chinese analog competition (BYD Semi, SG Micro) is a real long-tail risk the narrative layer correctly flags, but it's a 2028+ problem, not a 2026 one. The 100% payout ratio is the more immediate structural concern — TXN is funding capex with debt while paying out all earnings, which works until it doesn't.
Committing: I dissent from the synthesis's overvalued-by-88% claim (absurd) but partially agree with the direction. Fair value on my math is $230-260 assuming margins hold at 34-36% and revenue stabilizes at $22-24B run-rate — call it 5-15% overvalued, not 88%. The quarterly trajectory is genuinely strong and the models older than Q2 2026 data are stale. The insider award (7,154 shares, single line) is noise. Sector-above-benchmark and steady quarterly trend signals support the fundamentals story more than the narrative-inflation story. I'd wait for one more quarter to confirm margin sustainability above 35% before buying, and I'd short the "fair value $33" thesis outright — that's a modeling artifact, not analysis.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that the market is paying an extreme premium for a company whose recovery is real but still incomplete and whose cash economics are currently much weaker than the headline quality narrative implies. TXN has clearly turned the corner operationally: quarterly revenue rose from $4.01B in 4Q24 to $5.46B in 2Q26, and net income improved from $1.16B in 4Q25 to $1.98B in 2Q26. That is a meaningful rebound, with net margin back up to 36.2% in the latest quarter from 26.3% just two quarters earlier. But zoom out and the annual picture is less flattering. 2025 revenue of $17.68B is still below 2022’s $20.03B, and 2025 net income of $5.00B is far below the $8.75B peak. Against that, the stock trades at roughly 50.6x earnings, 14.2x sales, and 32.9x EV/EBITDA. Those are not “high quality cyclical” multiples; those are software-like multiples being applied to a capital-intensive analog manufacturer in mid-recovery.
The biggest disconnect is free cash flow. TXN generated $7.15B of operating cash flow in 2025, which sounds strong until you account for the $4.55B of capex, leaving just $2.60B of free cash flow. On a $251.8B market cap, that is roughly a 1.0% FCF yield. Even if you argue the capex is deliberately elevated for future capacity, investors still have to live through the actual cash outlay. The company is not being valued on current owner earnings; it is being valued on hoped-for normalized earnings several years out. That can work if the normalization is both large and durable, but the burden of proof is high when payout ratio is effectively 100%, cash is only $3.23B, and net debt is about $10.8B. TXN’s balance sheet is not distressed, but neither is it priced like a balance-sheet-constrained cyclical; it is priced like a scarce compounder with minimal execution risk.
I also think some of the market’s “steady analog moat” framing smooths over how much cyclicality and capital intensity still matter. Annual revenue grew from $15.64B in 2024 to $17.68B in 2025, so the business is improving, but that is only about 13% off a depressed base, and earnings barely moved year-over-year, from $4.80B to $5.00B, because the cost structure is absorbing higher investment. Gross margin fell from 68.7% in 2022 to 57.0% in 2025, and operating margin from 50.6% to 34.1%. Yes, the latest quarterly trend is better, but to justify $275, investors are effectively assuming margins can move materially back toward peak while the market continues to award a huge premium multiple on those future earnings. If TXN eventually earned its 2022 net income of $8.75B again, today’s market cap would still be around 28.8x that peak net income before asking for any growth beyond the old peak. That is simply too expensive for a mature analog name with 0.5% revenue CAGR across the provided period.
The best argument against this bearish read is that the annual numbers understate intrinsic earnings power because TXN is intentionally depressing current free cash flow and margins with a once-in-a-cycle manufacturing buildout. If the new capacity drives a multiyear share gain in industrial and automotive, then today’s $4.55B capex could look smart in hindsight, and the latest quarter gives bulls real ammunition: revenue up 13.1% year over year, net income up, and margins snapping back into the mid-30s already. The business also retains excellent underlying economics by most standards: 57% gross margin, 34% operating margin, 19.5% ROIC, and 30.7% ROE in a down-cycle recovery year. That is better than most semis. A smart bull would say the right comparison is not to average cyclicals but to a long-duration, high-return analog franchise with unusually sticky customers and long product lives, where temporary under-earning during a capex surge should be capitalized at a premium. I weigh that differently because even great businesses can be bad stocks when the entry multiple leaves no room for anything short of near-perfect normalization.
What would change my mind is straightforward: if TXN can show that 2026-2027 is not just a revenue rebound but a true cash earnings inflection. Specifically, I would want to see quarterly revenue sustain above $5.5B-$6.0B, net margins hold at 35%+ rather than briefly spike there, and annual free cash flow recover from $2.60B toward at least $6B even before a full peak cycle. If the company can produce something like $7B-$8B of annual net income again while capex rolls down enough to make FCF yield respectable, then a premium valuation would be easier to defend, though probably still not this premium. Until those numbers arrive, the stock looks priced for a completed recovery when the data still show a business in transition and investors paying far too much for the privilege of waiting.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers tell a clear cyclical recovery story that is already more advanced than the trailing multiples imply. Texas Instruments bottomed in late 2024/early 2025 at roughly $4.0–4.1B quarterly revenue and sub-30% net margins; by the June 2026 quarter revenue had climbed to $5.46B with net income of $1.98B and a 36.2% net margin. That is a run-rate approaching $22B revenue and nearly $8B net income—essentially back to the 2021–2022 peak zone. Annual 2025 results ($17.68B revenue, $5.0B NI) still look depressed only because they average in the trough; the sequential path and the most recent print show utilization and pricing power returning faster than the full-year figures suggest. Heavy capex ($4.55B against $7.15B operating cash flow) is the deliberate cost of the 300mm capacity build-out, which is why free cash flow sits at a temporarily modest $2.6B and the payout ratio is pinned near 100%. ROE of 31% and gross margins still above 57% confirm the analog franchise remains intact.
What the quantitative models get badly wrong is the $33 “fair value.” That output is mechanically broken—an order-of-magnitude error that ignores both the $5B of current earnings power and the $8B run-rate now visible. A mature analog leader with TXN’s customer lock-in, 20% ROIC, and fortress balance sheet (current ratio 4.4, net debt modest relative to equity) does not trade at 4× earnings. The real debate is whether 32× forward earnings on a normalized $8B net-income base, or 50× on trailing trough earnings, is justified for a business whose five-year revenue CAGR is essentially zero and whose earnings CAGR is still negative. At $276 the market is already capitalizing a full return to peak profitability plus a quality premium; there is little room left for execution slips or a slower industrial/auto recovery.
The strongest contrary case is straightforward: the June quarter could prove the high-water mark of the snap-back rather than the new baseline. Automotive and industrial end-markets remain sensitive to rates and China demand; Chinese analog competitors continue to take share in the more commoditized catalog parts; and the $14B debt load plus multi-year elevated capex will keep free-cash-flow conversion subdued until the new fabs fill. If 2026 full-year net income stalls around $6–6.5B instead of reaching $7.5B+, the stock is left sitting at 40×+ forward earnings with a 2% dividend yield that no longer covers the opportunity cost. Momentum bulls will also note that the narrative of “irreplaceable toll-taker on electrification” has already done its work—valuation has detached from any reasonable DCF of mid-single-digit growth.
I would reverse to a constructive stance on two concrete data points: (1) two more sequential quarters of revenue above $5.3B with net margins holding ≥34%, confirming the run-rate is durable rather than a one-quarter spike, and (2) free-cash-flow inflection above $4B as capex intensity rolls off, proving the capacity investments are converting. Absent that evidence the asymmetry is unfavorable.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Texas Instruments shows classic mature-earner mechanics with a hard cyclical dent. Revenue fell from a $20.0B peak in 2022 to $15.6B in 2024 before recovering to $17.7B in 2025; gross margin compressed sharply from 68.8% to 57.0% and operating margin from 50.6% to 34.1%. Even at the trough, TXN earned $4.8-5.0B net income and produced positive FCF every year, though FCF collapsed from $6.3B (2021) to $1.35B (2023) as the company ran heavy capex through its 300mm fab buildout. That FCF recovery to $2.60B in 2025 is real but still well below the earnings run-rate, indicating capex is still absorbing most operating cash.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Timing and magnitude of remaining 300mm fab capex — when does capex intensity normalize and FCF conversion recover?
- Whether the 2025 GM/OpM tick-down vs 2024 is under-utilization drag or structural pricing pressure
- Customer/end-market concentration (auto vs industrial mix) and pricing dynamics with Chinese analog competitors
- Debt maturity schedule and refinancing exposure given the net debt position
- Any change in capital return policy given constrained near-term FCF
The e2e composite fair value of $35.01 (DCF $25.14, EPV $54.75) implies an 88% overvaluation, which is not credible for a franchise generating high-single-digit-billion free cash flow with 57%+ gross margins - a $35 print would value TXN below its annual FCF run-rate and is almost certainly an artifact of trough margins and peak capex being extrapolated. I discount the DCF heavily and lean on the EPV floor of ~$55 as a genuine downside anchor, then gross it up for the strong-quality, clean-earnings franchise. Even a generous quality-adjusted deserved value in the $180-$220 range (roughly 22-27x normalized earnings for a high-moat analog compounder mid-transition) sits well below the $275.74 tape. That puts the stock at a 25-35% premium to what the business deserves today. What is priced in: a clean exit from the capex trough, margin recovery back toward 60%+ gross / 40%+ operating, and secular analog content growth from EVs, industrial, and data center - essentially the full bull case with no cyclical air pocket and no China erosion. That is a lot to underwrite at 30x+ earnings on compressed margins. Margin of safety is negative; this is a hold-if-you-own-it, not a buy-here.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Gross margin trajectory next 2-3 quarters - is 57% the trough or does it drift lower
- Capex guide and timing of FCF inflection as new fabs ramp
- Industrial and automotive end-market inventory normalization commentary
- Any change in buyback pace given lower FCF - is per-share discipline still intact
- China analog competition - pricing pressure in commodity analog lines
TXN sits under a strong, durable platform-monopoly narrative (analog foundry, switching costs, 60%+ gross margins) with low cult intensity - meaning the story is respected by long-term holders and dividend/quality funds rather than chased by momentum crowds. That narrative type tends to be sticky and does not de-rate violently on macro wobbles, which mutes the impact of the neutral-but-slightly-jumpy tape (VIX 16, S&P -1.6% off highs, 10y 4.68%, market PE 26.9). With beta 1.31, TXN is more tape-sensitive than a classic defensive, but the analog-monopoly framing has been acting as a shock absorber.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Next earnings guide - a second soft print would break the quality-compounder framing
- Whether sell-side revisions follow the guidance cut lower or hold
- Any acceleration of Chinese analog competition headlines - would crack the moat narrative
- VIX behavior - a break above 20 would punish beta 1.31 names disproportionately
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 3, 2026, TXN was $275.74. We expect it to be $255.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $195.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 3, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.