Business Description
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) specializes in the global design, production, and sale of semiconductors to electronics engineers and manufacturers. Its operations are structured into two core segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The Analog division provides a comprehensive suite of power management products, such as battery-management solutions, various DC/DC and AC/DC switching regulators and controllers, power switches, linear regulators, voltage supervisors, references, and lighting components, all critical for managing diverse power needs. This segment also delivers signal chain products designed to sense, condition, and measure electrical signals, facilitating information transfer or conversion for further processing and control, encompassing items like amplifiers, data converters, interface devices, motor drives, clocks, and sensing technologies. The Embedded Processing segment develops microcontrollers, integral to a wide array of electronic equipment; digital signal processors (DSPs) for complex mathematical computations; and applications processors tailored for specific computing tasks. Products from this segment are utilized across numerous markets, including industrial applications, the automotive sector, personal electronics, communication systems, enterprise solutions, and calculators. Beyond these, TI also produces DLP® products, primarily used in projectors to generate high-definition images; a range of calculators; and custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). The company distributes its semiconductor offerings through a direct sales force, its network of authorized distributors, and its official website. Established in 1930, Texas Instruments is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Business History
Generated: Jun 25, 2026 3:02amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.45
Total Equity: $16.27B
Shares: 913,000,000
Total Debt: $14.78B
Cash: $3.23B
EBITDA: $8.25B
Total Debt: $14.78B
Cash: $3.23B
Revenue: $17.68B
Revenue: $17.68B
Revenue: $17.68B
Total Equity: $16.27B
Tax Rate: 12.4%
Equity: $16.27B
Total Debt: $14.78B
Cash: $3.23B
Current Liabilities: $3.16B
Long-Term Debt: $14.16B
Total Debt: $14.78B
Total Equity: $16.27B
Shares: 913,000,000
Shares: 913,000,000
CapEx: -$4.55B
Shares: 913,000,000
Stock Price: $304.36
Net Income: $5.00B
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
TXN remains a high-quality analog/embedded franchise: gross margin still 57% and operating margin 34% in 2025 even at the trough of an industrial/auto down-cycle, with Altman Z of 12.64, Beneish M of -2.66, OCF/NI of 1.17x, and accruals at -2.8% of assets. Earnings integrity is clean by every mechanical check, and share count has been quietly compressed (-0.6% CAGR, buybacks 405% of SBC, SBC only 2.4% of revenue) so per-share value is being concentrated rather than leaked. The concern is the trajectory: revenue fell from $20.0B (2022) to $15.6B (2024) before recovering to $17.7B (2025), but gross margin compressed from 68.8% to 57% and operating margin from 50.6% to 34.1%. Net income roughly halved from $8.75B to $5.00B and FCF collapsed from $5.92B (2022) to $1.35B (2023) and $1.50B (2024), only partially recovering to $2.60B in 2025. This is the consequence of the deliberate 300mm fab buildout (Sherman, Lehi) - a multi-year capex super-cycle - not a quality break, but it has turned the balance sheet from net cash to roughly -$9.9B net debt. Management is still self-funding, still buying back stock, and still earning mid-30s op margins at the bottom - that is genuinely strong. But until capex normalizes and utilization returns, the historical 'cash machine' descriptor is on pause.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Capex schedule and when depreciation step-up peaks - key to whether 57% GM is the floor or has further to fall
- Gross debt maturity ladder and interest coverage given swing to -$9.9B net debt
- Segment mix shift (Analog vs Embedded) and inventory days vs prior cycles to gauge cycle position
- Magnitude of capitalized interest and CHIPS Act credits flowing through margins/FCF
- Customer concentration in auto/industrial and any pricing pressure from Chinese analog competitors
The composite FV of $123 and signal-adjusted $123 imply roughly 59% downside, but I will not take that at face value - the DCF at $26 is almost certainly a runaway method penalizing a trough-FCF business mid-capex cycle, and should be discounted heavily. The EPV floor at $55 is more defensible but still reflects compressed earnings power. The anchored-PE at $383 is the only method that respects normalized earnings on a strong analog franchise, and even that only offers ~26% upside - hardly a margin of safety. Splitting the difference between a credible normalized value (anchored-PE) and the EPV floor lands deserved value somewhere in the $180-240 range for a quality-adjusted analog monopoly. At $303, the market is paying anchored-PE-plus, meaning investors are already crediting TI for a full margin and FCF recovery off the 300mm fab investment, plus secular AI/auto/industrial tailwinds. That is the bull case fully in the price. Earnings quality is high so no haircut, and the strong Quality grade lifts deserved value - but not to $303. This is a great business at a full-to-rich price, not a mispricing opportunity.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Free cash flow trajectory as 300mm capex rolls off - is the FCF recovery on schedule?
- Gross and operating margin path back toward historical peaks
- Management guidance on normalized capex intensity post-cycle
- Industrial and auto end-market demand inflection signals
- Any one-time charges or capex pull-forwards inflating reported earnings
The macro tape is essentially neutral (VIX 18.6, S&P only 3.3% off highs), so there is no risk-off pressure forcing a high-quality semi name lower. TXN's 1.31 beta would matter in a stress tape, but right now there is no stress to amplify. What is doing the real work is the platform-monopoly narrative: TXN is being slotted into the AI infrastructure / EV / industrial IoT story, and the news flow this week reinforces it - Stifel raising the target on improving semiconductor momentum, a dedicated piece asking whether the price is still justified after the capacity expansion push, and adjacent bullish coverage of Broadcom, AMAT and Qualcomm that keeps the whole semi cohort bid. Recent 13.1% momentum versus a flat long-term trend confirms the tape is leaning into this name. The one crack in the sentiment picture is analyst targets at $275 versus a $303 price - consensus is lagging the narrative, not leading it, which is a classic late-cycle tell but also leaves room for catch-up revisions (two this month already averaged $330). Net: narrative pressure is clearly pushing up, with only mild valuation-anxiety undertones from the 'is the price still justified' framing.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether analyst targets continue catching up to price (more $330+ revisions) or stall, signaling narrative exhaustion
- Any crack in the AI/auto/industrial demand story from a peer guide-down that would break the cohort bid
- VIX move above 22 or S&P breaking the recent-high band by more than 5%, which would activate the 1.31 beta against this name
- Frequency of 'is the price justified' framing in coverage - rising skepticism would mark a narrative top
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:02am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.3B | $20.0B | $17.5B | $15.6B | $17.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.0B | $6.3B | $6.5B | $6.5B | $7.6B |
| Gross Profit | $12.4B | $13.8B | $11.0B | $9.1B | $10.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.7B | $3.6B | $4.1B |
| Operating Income | $9.0B | $10.1B | $7.3B | $5.5B | $6.0B |
| Net Income | $7.8B | $8.7B | $6.5B | $4.8B | $5.0B |
| EBITDA | $10.1B | $11.2B | $9.0B | $7.5B | $8.3B |
| EPS | $8.38 | $9.51 | $7.13 | $5.24 | $5.45 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $4.6B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $13.7B | $14.0B | $15.1B | $15.0B | $13.8B |
| Total Assets | $24.7B | $27.2B | $32.3B | $35.5B | $34.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.6B | $3.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $7.2B | $8.6B | $11.1B | $13.5B | $14.2B |
| Total Liabilities | $11.3B | $12.6B | $15.5B | $18.6B | $18.3B |
| Total Equity | $13.3B | $14.6B | $16.9B | $16.9B | $16.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $45.9B | $50.4B | $52.3B | $52.3B | $52.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:01am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $8.8B | $8.7B | $6.4B | $6.3B | $7.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.5B | -$2.8B | -$5.1B | -$4.8B | -$4.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.3B | $5.9B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $2.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $2.5B | $3.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$527.0M | -$3.6B | -$293.0M | -$929.0M | -$1.5B |
| Net Change in Cash | $1.5B | -$1.6B | -$86.0M | $236.0M | $25.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$23.4B $21.5B – $24.9B
|
$25.7B $25.6B – $25.8B
|
$29.7B $27.5B – $32.2B
|
$30.7B $28.6B – $33.4B
|
| EBITDA |
$12.0B $11.1B – $12.8B
|
$13.2B $13.2B – $13.3B
|
$15.3B $14.2B – $16.6B
|
$15.8B $14.7B – $17.2B
|
| Net Income |
$8.1B $7.3B – $9.8B
|
$9.3B $7.0B – $11.7B
|
$10.6B $9.6B – $11.8B
|
$11.1B $10.1B – $12.3B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:02am (2d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +9.2% | -12.5% | -10.7% | +13.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +11.3% | -20.0% | -17.5% | +10.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +13.2% | -27.7% | -25.5% | +10.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +12.6% | -25.6% | -26.3% | +4.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | +11.6% | -19.7% | -16.3% | +9.4% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:02am (2d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | FARMER CURTIS C | A-Award | 85.18 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-19 | PATSLEY PAMELA H | A-Award | 85.18 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Craighead Martin S | S-Sale | 9,643.00 | $320.41 | $3.1M |
| 2026-05-28 | Craighead Martin S | S-Sale | 357.00 | $321.01 | $114,599 |
| 2026-05-14 | BAHAI AHMAD | M-Exempt | 5,000.00 | $110.15 | $550,750 |
| 2026-05-14 | BAHAI AHMAD | S-Sale | 5,000.00 | $309.13 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-14 | BAHAI AHMAD | M-Exempt | 5,000.00 | $110.15 | $550,750 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lizardi Rafael R | M-Exempt | 47,734.00 | $174.81 | $8.3M |
| 2026-05-14 | Lizardi Rafael R | S-Sale | 32,119.00 | $307.85 | $9.9M |
| 2026-05-14 | Lizardi Rafael R | S-Sale | 14,156.00 | $308.54 | $4.4M |
| 2026-05-14 | Lizardi Rafael R | S-Sale | 1,459.00 | $309.45 | $451,486 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lizardi Rafael R | M-Exempt | 47,734.00 | $174.81 | $8.3M |
| 2026-05-13 | COX CARRIE SMITH | M-Exempt | 4,532.00 | $104.41 | $473,186 |
| 2026-05-13 | COX CARRIE SMITH | M-Exempt | 4,306.00 | $110.15 | $474,306 |
| 2026-05-13 | COX CARRIE SMITH | S-Sale | 8,393.00 | $306.37 | $2.6M |
| 2026-05-13 | COX CARRIE SMITH | S-Sale | 445.00 | $307.04 | $136,634 |
| 2026-05-13 | COX CARRIE SMITH | M-Exempt | 4,306.00 | $110.15 | $474,306 |
| 2026-05-13 | COX CARRIE SMITH | M-Exempt | 4,532.00 | $104.41 | $473,186 |
| 2026-05-11 | Leonard Shanon J | S-Sale | 4,963.00 | $295.22 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-05 | Leonard Shanon J | F-InKind | 2,145.00 | $280.89 | $602,509 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 6:58pm (5d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $1.42 | 2026-04-16 | 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-19 |
| 2026-01-30 | $1.42 | 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-10 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1.42 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-12 |
| 2025-07-31 | $1.36 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-12 |
| 2025-04-30 | $1.36 | 2025-04-17 | 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-13 |
| 2025-01-31 | $1.36 | 2025-01-16 | 2025-01-31 | 2025-02-11 |
| 2024-10-31 | $1.36 | 2024-09-19 | 2024-10-31 | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-07-31 | $1.30 | 2024-07-18 | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-05-07 | $1.30 | 2024-04-25 | 2024-05-08 | 2024-05-21 |
| 2024-01-30 | $1.30 | 2024-01-18 | 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-13 |
| 2023-10-30 | $1.30 | 2023-09-21 | 2023-10-31 | 2023-11-14 |
| 2023-07-28 | $1.24 | 2023-07-20 | 2023-07-31 | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-05-05 | $1.24 | 2023-04-27 | 2023-05-08 | 2023-05-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | $1.24 | 2023-01-19 | 2023-01-31 | 2023-02-14 |
| 2022-10-28 | $1.24 | 2022-09-15 | 2022-10-31 | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-07-29 | $1.15 | 2022-07-21 | 2022-08-01 | 2022-08-16 |
| 2022-05-06 | $1.15 | 2022-04-28 | 2022-05-09 | 2022-05-17 |
| 2022-01-28 | $1.15 | 2022-01-20 | 2022-01-31 | 2022-02-07 |
| 2021-10-29 | $1.15 | 2021-09-15 | 2021-11-01 | 2021-11-15 |
| 2021-07-23 | $1.02 | 2021-07-15 | 2021-07-26 | 2021-08-09 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue went $3.82B → $4.15B → $4.01B → $4.07B → $4.45B → $4.74B → $4.42B → $4.83B across the last eight quarters. That's not "decelerating" — that's a clear cyclical recovery, with the most recent print at an all-time quarterly high and net margin snapping back to 32%. Annual 2025 revenue of $17.68B is still well below the 2022 peak of $20.03B, and operating income of $6.02B is a far cry from the $10.14B 2022 print. So the cyclical setup is mid-recovery, not late-cycle. FCF collapsed from historical $5-6B levels to $2.60B because capex ran -$4.55B against $7.15B OCF — TI is in the middle of a multi-year Sherman/Lehi fab buildout that mechanically suppresses FCF. Anyone modeling this off TTM FCF is making a category error.
That brings me to the synthesis verdict of $123 fair value — I think it's wrong, or at least wrong for the wrong reasons. A DCF that takes depressed trough-cycle FCF and extrapolates it gets you to $123; a DCF that normalizes capex to maintenance levels (~$2.5B) and uses mid-cycle operating margins of 35%+ on $20B+ revenue gets you to something like $180-220. The actual debate isn't $123 vs $304 — it's $180 vs $304. The narrative layer is closer to right: there is a real ~$100/share premium being paid for the analog/embedded moat plus AI/EV/industrial duration story. At 51x TTM P/E and 32x EV/EBITDA on cyclically depressed earnings, you're paying a peak multiple on trough earnings, which is the classic semis trap — except TI bulls would argue the multiple compresses naturally as earnings normalize toward $7-8B, taking forward P/E to ~30x. Still rich.
The contrarian case against the bears: TI's capex cycle peaks in 2026, after which FCF should mechanically inflect higher — that's the FCF CAGR of 38.9% trying to tell you something off a low base. The 32% net margin in the most recent quarter suggests pricing discipline is holding even mid-recovery. Insider activity is net selling but the volumes (sub-100K shares against 910M outstanding) are immaterial 10b5-1 noise, not a signal. ROIC at 17.5% on a capex-heavy business mid-build is genuinely good. The contrarian case against the bulls: TI's 2022 margins were a COVID-era pricing anomaly, not a baseline; Chinese analog competitors (SG Micro, Will Semi) are real and structurally cheaper; and the 3.17% dividend yield with 51x earnings implies the market is treating this as both a bond and a growth stock simultaneously, which rarely ends well. The Pre-Flight note about the "50% drawdown from 2024 highs" appears wrong — TXN was trading in the $190s in 2024 and is now at $304, that's a 50%+ gain, not drawdown. That's a factual error in the model chain worth flagging.
Net: I dissent from the synthesis $123 fair value as too punitive — it's mistaking peak-capex trough-FCF for steady state. But I also dissent from the current $304 price, which embeds aggressive normalization plus a durable AI/industrial premium on a cyclical business whose 2022 peak earnings the market is implicitly assuming will be exceeded. Mid-cycle fair value sits closer to $200-220 on $7B normalized earnings at a 28-30x multiple appropriate for a high-quality analog franchise with secular tailwinds. At $304 you're paying for the bull case to be fully delivered. The Q1 2026 print at $4.83B/32% margin is genuinely impressive and gives bulls ammunition, but one quarter doesn't validate a 2.5x premium to DCF. I'd want a 25-30% pullback or two more quarters of margin expansion confirming the recovery before committing.
GPT Critique
In analyzing Texas Instruments (TXN), I find the company's financials reflect a firm grappling with mid-cycle recovery, marked by notable revenue and margin fluctuations. The recent quarterly revenue of $4.83 billion and net income margin of 32% in Q1 2026, compared to more subdued figures in 2025, indicates a rebound from the previous cyclical downturn. However, the annual revenue trajectory from $20.03 billion in 2022 to $17.68 billion in 2025, coupled with operating income declines, suggests the recovery is incomplete. The significant free cash flow drop to $2.60 billion, due to a hefty $4.55 billion capex, underscores the capital-intensive nature of their ongoing fab expansions. Despite these investments, the high P/E ratio of 51.34 and EV/EBITDA of 32.46 suggest the market anticipates robust future earnings, which could be precariously optimistic given the current earnings volatility.
I agree with Claude Opus's assessment in several areas. Opus rightly points out the synthesis fair value of $123 is excessively bearish, as it assumes a static state of depressed earnings without accounting for potential margin normalization post-capex. I concur that a normalized mid-cycle fair value should be in the $200-$220 range, reflecting more stable earnings assumptions once capex declines. Their observation that the 32% net margin in the latest quarter indicates robust pricing power is valid and highlights TI's operational strengths despite market headwinds. However, I diverge from Opus's verdict regarding the current price of $304 being overly optimistic. I contend that while the market is pricing in a future where TI's earnings normalize, the margin and earnings assumptions may still be too aggressive given the competitive pressures and potential macroeconomic headwinds.
Opus argues that TI's capex cycle will peak by 2026, leading to a free cash flow resurgence. While this is plausible, it is speculative to assume this will fully materialize given the unpredictability of semiconductor cycles and geopolitical risks influencing supply chains. Additionally, the insider selling activity, though termed 'immaterial' by Opus, might suggest a lack of confidence from those within the company, warranting a cautious interpretation. The narrative that TI's 2022 earnings were an anomaly also holds water, as pandemic-induced demand spikes were unique and unlikely to recur with the same intensity.
A skeptic might argue that both Opus and I overestimate TI's ability to maintain its historical margins in the face of intensifying competition from low-cost Chinese manufacturers and potential technological disruptions. They could also point out that the 3.17% dividend yield, coupled with a high valuation multiple, indicates market expectations that are difficult to sustain without clear evidence of sustained earnings growth.