Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$543.86
6-month call
Bear -8.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$500.00
Great value below
$440.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.1% to $500.00
Predicted High
$541.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$500.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:39 am
Bear
ULTA trends lower to
$500.00
(-8.1% from $543.86)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisULTA trades ~23% above composite fair value with a negative value lens and mildly negative sentiment, but low beta, risk-on regime, and no near-term catalyst mean gravity toward $440-450 works slowly. Expect a drift lower with occasional bounces, ending closer to deterministic baseline than deep fair value.
Invalidated ifA break above $580 on strong guidance or holiday comp beat, or a break below $470 on category weakness, would falsify this slow-drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $543.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $543.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $508.58–$579.14 typical range · internal point $541.00 | — | ±6.5% | 6/10 | Low-vol drift in risk-on tape, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $533.68 on Aug 19, 2026 = -1.9% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $492.73–$594.99 typical range · internal point $535.00 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Mild mean reversion as value lens weighs |
| What actually happened: closed $564.17 on Sep 4, 2026 = +3.7% vs the call (predicted -1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $525.00 | — | -3.5% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, sentiment slightly negative |
| What actually happened: closed $543.69 on Oct 2, 2026 = 0.0% vs the call (predicted -3.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $515.00 | — | -5.3% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk, beat rate only 50 percent |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $522.00 | — | -4.0% | 4/10 | Holiday season bounce, beauty resilience narrative |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $510.00 | — | -6.2% | 4/10 | Post-holiday digestion, valuation gravity resumes |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $500.00 | — | -8.1% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $526.78 (-3.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $543.86 |
| Composite fair value | $442.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $441.00 |
| DCF fair value | $407.27 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $659.13 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $440.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +31 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.3% 3m 32.6% 6m 37.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.51 3m 0.36 5m 0.60 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -18.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ULTA-20260803-171802-7b73 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ULTA-20260803-180448-1951 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ULTA-20260803-180448-1951 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ULTA-20260803-180448-1951 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ULTA-20260803-180448-1951 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ULTA-20260803-171802-7b73 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ULTA-20260803-171802-7b73 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $543.86 | $500.00 | -8.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.