Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$247.90
6-month call
Bear -8.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$228.00
Great value below
$190.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.0% to $228.00
Predicted High
$254.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$228.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:17 pm
Bear
VEEV trends lower to
$228.00
(-8.0% from $247.90)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisVEEV trades at ~5x fair value but momentum, quality, and the Lilly Vault CRM narrative dominate near-term; low beta and risk-on regime keep it firm into fall, then modest valuation gravity and profit-taking bring a slow drift lower without breaking the platform story.
Invalidated ifA break below $215 on heavy volume, or a major Vault CRM customer loss/guidance cut, would falsify the ride-then-fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $247.90 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $247.90 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $225.36–$270.44 typical range · internal point $251.50 | — | ±9.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and Lilly narrative extend momentum |
| What actually happened: closed $275.09 on Sep 4, 2026 = +11.0% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 9.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $215.24–$280.56 typical range · internal point $254.00 | — | ±13.2% | 6/10 | Low-beta SaaS bid persists, no earnings catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $260.91 on Sep 22, 2026 = +5.3% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.2%: inside the band · S&P +1.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $248.00 | — | +0.0% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings drift, mild profit taking near highs |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $252.00 | — | +1.7% | 4/10 | Likely Q3 beat continues 4-of-4 streak |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $244.00 | — | -1.6% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation out of expensive SaaS winners |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $236.00 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity begins as narrative cools |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $228.00 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Slow drift toward baseline as multiple compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $211.57 (-14.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $247.90 |
| Composite fair value | $43.82 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $46.27 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $190.00 |
| Value net score | -59 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +82 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.4% 3m 45.6% 6m 44.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.02 3m 0.46 5m 0.20 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 37.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | VEEV-20260822-160834-8968 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-VEEV-20260822-162715-4032 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-VEEV-20260822-162715-4032 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-VEEV-20260822-162715-4032 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-VEEV-20260822-162715-4032 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | VEEV-20260822-160834-8968 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | VEEV-20260822-160834-8968 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $247.90 | $228.00 | -8.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.