Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$39.95
6-month call
Bear -7.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$37.00
Great value below
$32.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.4% to $37.00
Predicted High
$38.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$34.00
at 3 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:01 am
Bear
VRNS trends lower to
$37.00
(-7.4% from $39.95)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisVRNS is a pre-profit narrative name that just got sold post-print into a neutral tape, with poor value and quality scores dragging against a fading AI-security bid. Expect near-term drift lower toward the 32 attractive zone, then stabilization as the SaaS transition narrative reasserts absent a fresh catalyst.
Invalidated ifA reclaim above 44 on volume or a new AI-security enterprise deal announcement invalidates the fade; conversely a break below 30 would accelerate it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $39.95 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $39.95 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $35.98–$43.92 typical range · internal point $38.50 | — | ±9.9% | 6/10 | post-print sell-the-news bleed continues in neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $44.99 on Aug 14, 2026 = +12.6% vs the call (predicted -3.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 16.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $34.20–$45.70 typical range · internal point $37.20 | — | ±14.4% | 6/10 | no catalyst, sentiment overhang pressures shares lower |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $35.50 | — | -11.1% | 5/10 | drift toward value-attractive zone as narrative cools |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $34.00 | — | -14.9% | 5/10 | approaches 32 buy zone, next print anticipation builds |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $35.20 | — | -11.9% | 4/10 | stabilization as SaaS ARR narrative reasserts pre-print |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $36.50 | — | -8.6% | 4/10 | beat streak history supports modest recovery bid |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $37.00 | — | -7.4% | 3/10 | range-bound absent regime shift or fresh catalyst |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $39.95 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -54 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +10 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 53.1% 3m 49.8% 6m 59.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.23 3m 0.51 5m 0.34 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 30.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | VRNS-20260730-181814-6468 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRNS-20260730-182731-f815 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRNS-20260730-182731-f815 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRNS-20260730-182731-f815 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRNS-20260730-182731-f815 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | VRNS-20260730-181814-6468 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | VRNS-20260730-181814-6468 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $39.95 | $37.00 | -7.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.